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Dear friend,

We hope you’ve had a great week. In this newsletter:

• A ‘fresh start’ for the SNP? Earlier this week, our team travelled to Aberdeen to attend SNP conference and share our latest research on the state of Scottish politics.
  
  
• The view from the focus groups: speaking to voters in Caerphilly.
  
  
• In other news: do Britons see China as a national security threat? And how has the Tories’ policy blitz landed with the public?

But first, a thank you

As we wrap up this year’s party conference season, we’d just like to give a massive thank you to everyone who attended, spoke on our panels, or partnered with us in hosting these events.

We attended six conferences this year, running over 30 events covering the big issues facing the country from the cost of living to climate change to migration. It was fantastic to work with some brilliant new and old partners.

Alongside our friends at UCL Policy Lab who we loved co-hosting our events with again this year, we’d also like to thank Solar Energy UK, The Housing Finance Corporation, National Trust, Woodland Trust, Architectural Heritage Fund, Humanists UK, Parkinson's UK, MS Society, Neurological Alliance, Transparency International UK, Spotlight on Corruption, End Violence Against Women Coalition, WWF, ECA, MCS Foundation, Thermal Storage UK, ADE and Save the Children UK.

If you’d be interested in working with us at future conferences, please do reply to this email to let us know.

Will the 2026 elections be a ‘fresh start’ for the SNP?

In a sign of how quickly our electoral map is changing, it was only fifteen months ago that the SNP faced heavy losses in the General Election, losing around half a million votes and all but nine MPs. Yet our latest polling shows the picture looks very different ahead of next year’s elections.

Despite losing 11 points in the constituency vote, A Holyrood election held tomorrow could put the SNP just shy of a majority in Holyrood, mostly due to fragmentation in the unionist vote.

The SNP is in a unique electoral position. As a pro-independence party, It’s more insulated from the threat of Reform UK than other parties, and may even benefit from how splintered the anti-independence vote has become.

The dividing line remains stark. Among Scots who support independence, the SNP commands two-thirds of the vote, rising to 87 per cent among those who list independence as a top issue. Meanwhile, the anti-independence vote is split four ways, with Reform UK now in the lead.

So despite last year’s General Election setback, things are looking good for the SNP in the run-up to 2026. Why has this happened?

On our way to Aberdeen, we stopped off in Dundee to conduct a few focus groups. We got an insight into why Reform is poised for its first breakthrough North of the border. A sense of double-incumbency is setting in, with voters disillusioned with politicians in Holyrood and Westminster alike. After nearly two decades governing Scotland, even some of the party’s loyal voters described an “SNP fatigue” setting in, while others described a perceived lack of progress on key issues. 

“SNP fatigue, we have been under the same power for so long and I am SNP and that's who I will vote for it again. But we were just like, oh come on, something's got to happen.”

Emma, SNP voter

“They've been in power for a long time. People are fatiguing about it.” 

Euan, SNP voter

“For example, the SNPs had 18 years and I started voting for the SNP in 1972. That's when I was 21 years old and I voted, I used to go and vote SNP and it was 11,000 for labour, 6,000 for 6,000 for the Tory party SNP 80. And I've voted for 40 odd years, 50 years and I've just got sick and fed up with them.”

Paul, Reform voter

And this disillusionment extends to the Government in Westminster: only 13 per cent of Scots believe that the new Labour government has been good for Scotland. Strikingly, just a third of those who voted for Labour think they’re good for the country. For many, this is proof that the problem runs deeper than just one government, and that Reform could offer a ‘breath of fresh air’.

“It's like a bit of breath of fresh air. Now I'm not saying that everything they're saying is good and I'm a bit like you. I don't like Nigel Farage, right. But at the same time, I'm quite willing to listen to him and his party to hear what they've actually got to say because somebody sometime has got to start telling the truth about what's happening in this country and he seems to see it.”

Kay, Reform voter, Dundee

“The SNP has always got an excuse that the dog ate my homework. Always blame Westminster if all else fails. And in Westminster, the Labour government blame it on the previous government. (...) Nobody ever takes no accountability.”

James, retired, Dundee Reform voter

With this double-incumbency effect gripping Scottish politics, it’s no surprise that “a fresh start” has become central to the SNP’s pitch ahead of 2026.

But the same independence divide that shields the SNP from Reform also creates challenges. Their voter coalition is broad, united by the independence debate, but not necessarily very much else.

Winning in 2026 will mean reaching beyond their core of Progressive Activists and Incrementalist Left, and setting out a compelling agenda on energy, migration, social issues and international affairs that appeals across their diverse support base.

We explore these opportunities and challenges in detail in our report, which you can read through the link below. You can also find Chris Mason’s excellent piece on the SNP, which quotes our research, here, and Ed’s thread on the focus groups here.

The view from the focus groups: what's happening to Caerphilly?

Next week’s by-election in Caerphilly could be a big moment in Welsh politics. Caerphilly is a seat that has been controlled by Labour for over a century at Westminster and in every Senedd election since devolution. More broadly, it would be a sign that the Welsh valleys, long a bastion of Labour support, are like other areas of the country shifting their support.  
Crucially, it’s one of Reform’s first tests in Wales since the General Election.

Last week, we hosted a focus group with voters from Caerphilly. We heard from previously long-term Labour voters who felt that the party had lost its way, or lost touch with ordinary people. They cited winter fuel allowance, scandals and a failure to reduce the cost of living or take on energy companies. While some were willing to acknowledge the difficult inheritance facing Labour, other voters’ said their patience was running out.

“I’ve been a lifelong labour fan. But I never thought I'd see a labour government take money away from pensioners (...) I've never seen politics so adrift. I think they've totally lost touch with the people and I think politics is broken, which is leading to Britain and Wales being broken.“

Martin, call centre manager, Labour to Plaid Cymru switcher

“I suppose it goes against everything you've grown up believing labour are for. They were always there for the working sort of people and now it's just all about raising taxes, raising prices. I don't understand how they allow energy companies, oil companies, how do they allow 'em to make all these millions and millions.”

Owen, not working, Labour - Reform switcher

“I think you saw how bad things were getting after 14 years of the Tories and voted Labour and thought, oh here we go, finally things are going to turn around and I think they've just accelerated what the Tories were doing and things are getting even worse at a quicker pace. There's been too many scandals in a year or just over a year”

Derek, transport engineer, Labour - Reform switcher

“I think it's hard not to get caught up in all that negativity, but unfortunately I think we are working really hard and I think even people who are in professional roles, you're struggling to make ends meet and you can't help but feel really frustrated by it.”

Rachel, Nurse, Plaid Cymru voter

“(Starmer) does lack a little bit of personality. I don't often believe (...) I think from someone who's leading the country, you need that bit of, there's several words for it, but I suppose a little bit of belief, a little bit of ‘this guy is going to do what he's going to do’ and I just feel like sometimes he lets himself down there. But again, he's inherited a really, really difficult position. There's so much going on.”

Laura, history teacher, Plaid Cymru voter

For some members of the group who felt disillusioned with Labour, Reform UK was offering something different. Yet there was still some apprehension around Farage and his party - and whether they actually care about Wales.

“You do see reform absolutely everywhere, but it's kind of like we have been as Wales or South Wales have been quite strong at voting labour for many, many years And it's kind of like that's all we know (...) So I think people have got kind of a bit fed up of what we know and want to change, but really don't really know what the change is.”

Fiona, maternity leave, Labour - Reform switcher

“Whether they pick Reform or Plaid or Conservatives, whoever it is, I just think people will, you'll see a massive drop in the Labour vote I believe this time because people just want change.”

Owen, not working, Labour - Reform switcher

Do Brits see China as a national security threat?

Following the collapse of the Chinese spy case,and debates over the extent to which China poses a threat to the UK’s national security, our polling suggests that the British public are clear in their perception of China: seven in ten Britons (69 per cent) believe that China is a threat to the UK’s national security.

This includes more than a third (36 per cent) who consider China a “significant threat”, while 33 per cent believe they are “a small threat”.

This view of China spans across politics, with a majority of every voter group saying that China is a threat to our national security. However, those currently planning to vote for Reform UK are most hawkish in their view of China: 86 per cent of Reform supporters say that China is a threat.

How will the Tories’ policy blitz land with voters?

Following Kemi Badenoch’s speech at last week’s party conference, we asked the public what they thought.

In perhaps a promising sign for Badenoch, there’s been a slight uptick in the proportion of Brits who think it’s clear what she stands for - they’re now slightly clearer about Badenoch than Starmer for the first time. However, it’s still only 43 per cent of Brits who say it’s clear what she stands for - compared to 40 per cent for Starmer.

And many of the new policy announcements are likely to have gone down well: in particular, abolishing stamp duty is widely popular, supported by two-thirds of Britons while only 18 per cent oppose it. There is also widespread support for tightening asylum rules and the tax rebate for young people buying their first home. Yet there’s less support for cutting welfare to those with lower level mental health issues.

Some of these policies are popular, and early signs from focus groups suggest they could cut through But of course, the big challenge facing the Conservatives is a lack of trust: outside of the Tories’ base, most Britons say they lack confidence in the Conservatives to actually scrap stamp duty if elected: only 34 per cent say they are confident; 51 per cent say they are not.

As always, thank you for reading.

We really enjoy hearing your feedback, so do let us know your thoughts.

All the best,
Luke Tryl

Executive Director