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Dear friend,

We hope you’ve had a lovely week!

After a hectic few days at Labour Party Conference, and an eventful couple of weeks in politics, we’ve now got an absolute treasure trove of new research to share with you:

• Political map upended ? Our latest MRP suggests that, in an election held tomorrow, Reform could win 373 seats, as traditional loyalties are upended, and unhappiness with the status quo is leading to more people willing to roll the dice for something new.
  
  
• How did we get here? At Labour Conference, we presented our report into how the first 15 months of this Government have matched public expectations and what they want Labour to do differently. 
  
  
• The view from the focus groups: Speaking to eight women from Stevenage who voted for Labour in the last election, what do they make of the government’s record so far?
  
• Digital ID: Support for the policy has plummeted since the beginning of summer. Is the government suffering from reverse Midas Touch?

But first, an invitation

This weekend, we’ll be travelling up to Manchester for Conservative Party Conference. We’ve got a packed schedule of events, discussing a broad range of issues with some great panelists including senior politicians, journalists, business leaders and campaigners.

You can find out about our plans for the conference below. Hope to see you there!

Has Reform hit a tipping point?

On Sunday, we released our new MRP. Based on polling of nearly 20,000 Britons, the model estimates that an election held tomorrow could return a Reform UK majority, while Labour is reduced to double digits and the Conservatives could face a near-extinction event. 

With 373 MPs, this result would hand Reform a majority of 96 - slightly larger than Boris Johnson’s 2019 majority of 80.

What’s interesting is that Reform is no longer limited to typically Tory seats - they are projected to flip 276 Labour seats, as well as 4 Liberal Democrat seats and 4 SNP seats, with 84 taken from the Conservatives. It seems that Reform has hit a tipping point: for small parties, a concentrated vote share is an advantage that allows them to get a large number of seats from a small vote share. The Liberal Democrats benefitted from this dynamic - earning 72 seats with fewer votes than Reform. But once a party reaches a higher vote share, uniformity becomes an advantage, and First-Past-The-Post starts to work in their favour - particularly in such a fragmented system.

This would be a highly marginal result: nearly 100 seats are three-horse races with three or more parties within 10 points of the winning party - some are even five horse races.

The MRP represents what could be the worst result for Labour in post-war history.

Labour is projected to hold onto just 90 of its seats - predominantly in urban centres like London, and university towns. Labour is projected to come second in 226 seats, of which 106 are marginal. This would be the smallest parliamentary Labour Party since 1931, with most of the Cabinet losing their seats. 276 seats are projected to flip to Reform, while the SNP takes 26 of Labour’s Scottish seats.

The losses extend to their historic heartlands. An example of this is Wales, where Labour won 27 seats (out of 32) in the 2024 General Election. In an election held today, Labour could be reduced to just one seat.

This shift is driven by a dramatic collapse in Labour’s support in the Valleys. Most of these seats have voted Labour since their creation in the early 20th century, yet all but one are now projected to switch to Reform UK.

And this is a trend we’re seeing across the country: support for the mainstream parties is collapsing in some of their strongest historic heartlands, as voters who often feel invisible or taken for granted by the traditional parties are looking to roll the dice on something new instead. 

You can read the Sunday Times writeup of the MRP here. Or explore our interactive map through the link below:

How did we get here? Labour’s changing voter coalition

On Monday, we presented new research to a packed room at Labour Party Conference (watch the livestream here or read the slides here). Our aim was to tell the story of how, on the eve of their second conference in government, the Labour Party had lost two-in-five voters in such a short space of time, why voters impatient for change were defecting across the left, right and centre, and where they could go next to rebuild their electoral coalition.

Our British Seven Segments show how Labour’s support base has contracted. After expanding their coalition beyond their progressive base in the 2024 General Election, Labour’s vote share has dropped in every segment that supported the party, other than Established Liberals.

This has led to a narrowing of Labour’s 2024 voter coalition: from a broad but shallow coalition that delivered their election victory, to just a core: half of Labour’s current supporters are Incrementalist Left or Established Liberals.

What’s driving this collapse in Labour’s support? The 2024 General Election - like the 2019, 2017 and 2016 votes before it - was a vote for change. On the eve of the election, we found that seven in ten Britons believed it was time for change. That desire for change has actually grown strong despite the change of Government, rising to 77 per cent. And so far, few feel this change has been delivered.

Only 16 per cent of Britons think the government has made things better so far. Left-leaning segments tend to say that things have stagnated - with more than half (52 per cent) of Progressive Activists saying that Labour has made no difference, while right-leaning segments overwhelmingly believe things have got worse.

The next General Election is a long way away but on current trajectory it will likely be yet another vote for change, yet seven in ten say Labour represents ‘more of the same’ - while seven in ten think Reform represents something new.

So how can Labour better meet the public’s expectations? Our research shows that there are multiple paths to regaining the trust of voters. 

For progressive voters who have abandoned Labour to a party on the left, the key priorities, are reducing NHS waiting lists (selected by 53 per cent),  and tackling poverty (34 per cent). This group places less emphasis on cutting taxes, tackling crime, strengthening the armed forces, or addressing immigration.

For voters lost to Reform since the election, the Rooted Patriots (our ‘Red Wall’ segment) are the most likely to come back. While they are deeply concerned about migration, they are distinct from Reform’s core voter base (Dissenting Disruptors) in several important ways - and Labour’s strategy will rely on not conflating the two groups. Rooted Patriots want to see greater control of migration and for channel crossings to be stopped, but also want to see hate speech tackled, alongside wanting to see real progress on the NHS and above all Cost of Living.

For the Government  to regain trust it will need to deliver on public expectations in three key areas  in order to unite their fraying coalition: demonstrating control of and reducing levels of immigration, a hygiene test for voters, reducing the cost of living and improving the NHS (the two issues that unite Labour’s left and right flank).

You can watch the livestream of our great panel event here, or read the full research below.

The view from the focus group: Stevenage women

The week before Labour Conference, we spoke to a group of women in Stevenage who voted for Labour in the 2024 General Election. The hope for change this group felt at the election had drastically diminished since last July. 

“They can't please all the people all the time, but since he has been prime minister, it has gotten worse. For me as a person that goes to work, has a mortgage, has a family, but they're older, he's done nothing for me.” 
Debbie, Medical secretary NHS 

“Well, I was hopeful that things would change. We were going to start getting more looked after, but I just think they've totally embarrassed themselves with taking away the pension credit and then bringing it back and things like that. I just don't think they've delivered on any of their promises, really.” 
Katie, bank staff

“I don't have anything good to say. I think he's made my life a little bit harder than what it needs to be” 
Simone, Receptionist 

For some, there was a sense that Labour had lost its way - that the Prime Minister had ‘bowed to pressure’ and the party had abandoned its working class base.

“I think he bowed to pressure and I think he's just unravelling in that way that he's now starting to bow to pressure rather than to actually listen to his own initial, what's the word? His own morals and his own compass that he started leadership with. And I think that he's lost that” 
Melissa, theatre manager

“But I just don't know who to trust or anything anymore. I cannot bear Keir  Starmer. I think he's an absolute knobhead to be honest. Yeah, I think he's all for, he's not for us. He's not Labour. No, no, he's not for the working class I don't think. No, absolutely not”
Vanessa, PA

“It should be for the working class, but they don't seem to be for the working class, I dunno who they're for” 
Chanel, Operations manager

One area where the group were impressed was on the international stage, giving Starmer kudos for his handling of the state visit. This reflects our polling: most Britons - including a majority of Reform voters - said that the state visit was a success for the UK.

“I do think he played a blinder though with Trump in inviting him over for the recent Windsor thing. I think he absolutely, the timing of what he said, how he did it, and massaging that guy's ego, it was a master stroke and I actually think that's what he's really good at.”
Melissa, theatre manager

Yet this wasn’t enough to compensate for perceived failures on the home front. Asked what they would like to hear from Keir Starmer’s leader’s speech on Wednesday, some said they wanted someone to promise radical, sweeping change to the party and politics in general. But there was a deep sense of mistrust - that little could be said to reverse this malaise.

“So I just want somebody to almost just put a clean sheet on everything in some ways, and start to put faith back into people, not make us feel so demoralised. 

We need some hope for the country, for the normal working class person that what we are doing is actually counting for something. All this work that we do day-in, day-out is actually going to work towards something that's going to benefit our kids - because they're the ones going to be left with it all with the mess if we don't sort it out.”
Vanessa, PA, Stevenage

“I don't think there's anything they can say that would change it for me.”
Carly, pub manager

“To me, words without action is just a dream. So for me, there's nothing he can say. Let's see, what are you going to do about it? You're really great. You best fix it.”
Chanel, Operations manager

Digital ID: is the government suffering from reverse Midas Touch?

Public opinion on digital ID cards has flipped in just three months. Back in June, a majority (53 per cent) supported the idea, with only 19 per cent opposed. But following the Prime Minister’s announcement that the government would introduce the scheme, support has collapsed. Now, 45 per cent of Britons say they oppose digital ID, compared to just 31 per cent in favour, a swing from +35 to -14 net support.

Opposition is strong and hardened: nearly a third (32 per cent) now say they are strongly opposed to the introduction of a national digital ID scheme.

This collapse may reflect the fact that more detail about the policy has now  emerged, or that it has not been communicated effectively. But it also seems tied to the government’s low standing with the public, a case of ‘reverse Midas touch’, where being associated with an unpopular government erodes support. Among those who think Keir Starmer is doing a bad job as Prime Minister, 58 per cent oppose the scheme and just 20 per cent support it. By contrast, 71 per cent of those who think he is doing a good job are supportive, with only 14 per cent opposed.

Opposition is strongest among Reform and Conservative voters, both of whom backed the idea in June but are now firmly against it. Half of Reform supporters say they are “strongly opposed”. Even among 2024 Labour voters, support has fallen by 13 points, though Labour’s current base remains one of the few groups still narrowly in favour.

If the government is to rebuild support for digital ID it will have to start with making a clearer use case. Otherwise, it could join the list of unpopular policies as millstones around the government’s neck.

Thanks so much for reading! As always, we really enjoy hearing your feedback, so do let us know your thoughts.

All the best,
Luke Tryl

Executive Director