I hope this finds you well and rested after yet another week of party conferences. In this newsletter…
A Tory Reset? At Conservative Party conference, we presented the findings of our latest research on what’s driving the public’s perceptions of the Conservative Party and whether they can get another hearing from the public.
Britons review Starmer’s speech: what does the public make of the central themes of the Prime Minister’s conference speech last week?
Stamp Duty: what polling shows about the Conservatives’ new flagship policy - and an initial response from the focus groups.
Public opinion in the wake of last week’s attack on a Manchester synagogue, with rising concerns about extremism.
Is there a path back for the Tories?
As with centre-right parties around the world the threat facing the Conservative Party could be existential. Those who voted Tory in 2019 now say they are more likely to back Reform than return to the Conservatives, and our latest MRP shows the party could even slip into fourth place behind the Liberal Democrats.
The Conservatives’ 2019 coalition was their broadest in recent years, expanding beyond their base of Traditional Conservatives to Rooted Patriots in Labour heartlands. Brexit helped bind this coalition together, yet they still held onto their remain voting Established Liberal voters.
By 2024, support had narrowed to the extent that the Tories only won among their Traditional Conservative base, and even that is no longer secure, with Reform now leading among this group.
But the battle for the right is not over.
Among 2019 Conservatives who would now back Reform, a third say they would consider voting Tory again. The same is true of those 37 per cent of who have drifted to Labour or the Liberal Democrats. Traditional Conservatives, Established Liberals and Rooted Patriots remain more open to the party than Dissenting Disruptors, who form Reform’s base.
Asked if the party’s position is recoverable, seven in ten Established Liberals and Traditional Conservatives believe it is. Only among Dissenting Disruptors is there a majority who think the party’s decline is permanent, and only among this segment do a majority believe it would be better for Reform to become the main party of the right. Across the other segments, most see a role for the Conservative Party.
Rebuilding trust will not be easy. Simply following Reform’s lead is unlikely to be enough. The largest segment among Tory-Reform switchers are Traditional Conservatives - voters who value stability and want leaders to maintain and improve our institutions. This sets them apart from Reform’s base of Dissenting Disruptors, who want radical change and are willing to see disruption to achieve it. In this context, more than ever the Conservatives will need to find ways to show what makes them distinct from Reform.
There is one area where the Conservatives still hold an advantage: the economy. Despite the damage of the mini-budget, voters are twice as likely to trust the Conservatives as Labour or Reform to handle the economy, reduce national debt and attract investment.
Not only is the economy a source of credibility for the Conservatives, but it also has the ability to bring together the disparate segments of their support base - who are divided on many issues but converge in views of the economy.
For example, the 2019 coalition is divided on some of the Conservative Party’s flagship policies, like leaving the ECHR or scrapping Net Zero. Yet each of these segments are broadly united around fiscal responsibility and low taxes.
It is for this reason that Kemi Badenoch’s emphasis on fiscal responsibility in her speech this week may prove to be the party’s strongest chance of answering the fundamental question “What is the point of the Conservatives in a Reform-Labour race?”. Yet this will depend on reckoning with the party’s own history - only a quarter of Britons think that the Conservatives have reflected or learned their lessons from their time in government.
There’s a lot more depth in the report, exploring the challenges and opportunities facing the Tory party on issues like migration, Trump, Ukraine and more. You can find the full research deck here:
You can also find a recording of our live event, where we presented the findings before launching into a great conversation with some amazing panelists, here.
And finally, Danny Finkelstein covered our polling in his excellent piece in the Times on a Tory revival - it’s worth a read.
Britons review Starmer’s speech
At Labour Party Conference last week, the Prime Minister’s speech touched on a wide range of themes. In some ways, it reflected public opinion. His attempt to draw a line between pride in the flag and racist graffiti, mirrors what we often hear in conversations with the public: a distinction between patriotism and extremism.
Yet on one of the central questions of the speech - whether Britain is “broken” - the public’s view is less aligned with his. Only 12 per cent agree with Keir Starmer’s assertion that Britain is not broken. By contrast, a clear majority, 71 per cent, say Britain is broken but can be fixed, while 17 per cent believe the country is broken beyond repair.
This belief that Britain is broken is shared across the political spectrum. More than seven in ten supporters of every major party take this view. But there are important differences in how far voters think the situation is recoverable.
Reform UK supporters are the most pessimistic: almost every Reform voter (97 per cent) believes Britain is broken, including nearly one in five (18 per cent) who believe it cannot be fixed. Labour voters stand out for their relative optimism. Seven in ten (68 per cent) say Britain is broken but can be fixed, while only 4 per cent believe it cannot be fixed. Almost a third (29 per cent) of Labour supporters say Britain is not broken at all, by far the highest of any voter group.
Acknowledging that many Britons think the country is broken but also that there is a path to fixing it, will likely chime better with the public mood than appearing to gloss over the very real challenges many people see in their day to day lives.
Britons on Stamp Duty
On Wednesday, the Leader of the Opposition announced the Conservatives’ pledge to abolish Stamp Duty. Our polling suggests it could be a popular move: it's among the taxes that Britons most want to see cut.
And as we lay out in our Conservative Coalition report, we argue that tax could be an critical issue for the Tories - a chance to differentiate themselves from Labour and Reform. Labour has not shaken off its reputation for increasing taxes: two in three associate the Labour party more with high than low taxes. While Reform UK remains undefined in voters eyes either as a low or high tax party.
Britons are split roughly evenly on whether Conservatives represent high or low taxation, with 40 per cent saying they represent low taxes and 43 per cent saying they represent high taxes.
The pledge to abolish stamp duty could be an opportunity for the party to define itself. In a focus group of Established Liberals in St Albans on Wednesday night, participants were thrilled by the announcement and many had heard of it already; but there are some trust issues- in a group of Rooted Patriots in Stockport, participants laughed at the suggestion such a tax cut would even be possible.
Have a look at Ed’s thread to see his discussion of the move to abolish stamp duty.
Is the UK a safe place?
In the wake of last week’s horrific attack on a synagogue in Manchester, our polling has shown that, for the first time, the British public are now more likely to say that the UK is an unsafe place than a safe place for Jewish people.
48 per cent say that the UK is mostly or very unsafe for Jewish people, compared to 38 per cent who think it is a safe place. This is the highest proportion saying the UK is unsafe since we began tracking this last year - after reaching a previous high of 42 per cent during last year’s summer riots.
And the attack has led to a spike in concern around a range of forms of extremism. More than seven in ten Britons now say that antisemitism is a serious issue - the highest point since we began tracking - and the proportions of Britons concerned about Islamist terrorism, far-right terrorism, Islamophobia and community tensions between religious groups have spiked this week.
What’s important to note is that these concerns are not polarised, but overlap: most of those concerned about Islamist terrorism are also concerned about far-right terrorism, racism and Islamophobia.
That’s all for this week. As always, thank you for reading.
We really enjoy hearing your feedback, so do let us know your thoughts.
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