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Dear friend, 

I hope this finds you well. In this week’s newsletter:

• Does government infighting cut through beyond SW1?

• Do Britons still believe in the BBC? After a turbulent week for the national broadcaster, we share new polling on trust in the BBC.

• The view from the focus groups. Insights from a recent group for Electoral Dysfunction with women who voted Labour in 2024 but now feel let down, and why some are drifting away from the political mainstream.

• Build, baby, build? Our latest research with the RSPB on how Britons balance housebuilding, nature and the NIMBY/YIMBY debate.

• Do Britons have high hopes for COP30? Findings from our new work on climate change, energy and public expectations ahead of the summit.

• Webinar invitation. Join us for a session on the political importance of Britain’s parks and green spaces.

Does government infighting cut through beyond SW1?

With briefings and counter-briefings dominating headlines this week, how much do these stories affect public opinion? While the public might not be closely following every internal skirmish in Westminster, our polling suggests that infighting does contribute to political disillusionment, by reinforcing a broader sense of chaos that many voters are already weary of.

Three quarters of the public now describe the government as chaotic, up from 48 per cent when Labour won the election. Even among Labour’s own 2024 voters, half say the government feels chaotic. Among those who backed Labour last year but have since moved to Reform, that figure rises to 84 per cent. 

None of this is a good backdrop for any government, but it is especially damaging for public trust. Given that a key driver at the last election was a desire to draw a line under what Britons saw as the disorder of recent years. In focus groups, when we showed participants Keir Starmer’s opening campaign speech during the election, the promise to “stop the chaos” and deliver a type of politics that “treads more lightly on our lives” seemed to resonate with voters.

“The bit that resonated with me was ‘stop the chaos’. We've had so much chaos in the last 14 years, it’s been awful. They just don’t know what they're doing and we've got to give someone else a chance.”
Johannes, retired, Portsmouth

For many, the sense of chaos has not lifted. During this summer’s welfare row, seven in ten Britons told us they thought the current government was at least as chaotic as the last. More than a third said it felt more chaotic. This has fed into a wider pessimism about the political system itself: 69 per cent think politics has become more chaotic in recent years, and among them, two-thirds are unsure whether things will ever return to normal. The lasting consequence is that Britons stop seeing the status quo as a source of stability, and become more willing to ‘roll the dice’ on parties outside of the traditional mainstream. 

Read my thread on this here.

Do Britons still believe in the BBC?

Over the past two weeks, we’ve seen a national conversation about the future of the BBC. Our research shows that the BBC remains among Britain’s most trusted media platforms. Just over half of the public - 54 per cent - say they trust the BBC, compared with 22 per cent who distrust it. 

But it’s clear our national broadcaster faces an image problem among Reform UK voters, who are evenly split: 41 per cent trust the BBC and 41 per cent distrust it. Central to this distrust is a perception of bias: almost six in ten (58 per cent) Reform voters say the BBC is ‘too soft’ when interviewing politicians in general, but 59 per cent think the broadcaster is too harsh when interviewing Nigel Farage.

Across our seven segments, we see the same pattern. Liberal and left-leaning groups are more likely to trust the BBC, while more socially conservative segments are more sceptical, though in every segment, trust still outweighs distrust. Net trust is highest among Incrementalist Left and Established Liberals, and lowest among our Dissenting Disruptors. While part of this is driven by perceptions of political bias, it also reflects these segments’ wider trust - or lack thereof - in institutions.

The view from the focus groups: why do many voters feel let down?

Last week, working with Electoral Dysfunction, we conducted a focus group with eight women who had voted for Labour in the 2024 General Election, but since turned away from the party - some toward the Green Party, and others toward Reform UK. 

We heard a lot about the everyday struggles that were driving frustration with the government, and why for some of them, Zack Polanski or Nigel Farage seem to be offering something different.

“I live on my own and I'm 27 and the cost of living is unbelievable and it took me so long to find somewhere to live that was affordable and now it's even more not just to afford to live on my own but afford to buy food and transport and everything else is just, it's crazy trying to keep up with it.”
Martina, teaching assistant, Blackpool

“You go into a supermarket one week, it's a pound, next week it's one pound 30 the next week, one pound 50. I mean it's exactly the same thing. They just think everybody just seems to be putting prices up and nothing seems to be going down at all.”
Julia, admin assistant, Essex

“I think for me it was one of the first elections. I was the second election I could vote in. I'm only 25, but I think it was the first one where I really actually thought, okay, who am I going to vote for? It was the first one I was a bit like, oh I'm 18 now, I can do my vote, whatever. But I think we kind of got promise the world and then we're just down the same situation. It doesn't matter who's in power now. I think everyone kind of has just given up a little bit.” 
Darcie, occupational therapy student, Norfolk

“Mine was sort of Nigel or Zack, so a bit of both. Yeah, there's sort of like what other people have said, he's not afraid to say things that others probably wouldn't, but then Zack sort of with NHS, dental stuff and environment, stuff like that. So a bit of both.”
Poppy, social services auditor, Norfolk

“I hate to say the name, but Nigel Farage saying that he wants to be more assertive about (immigration) is gaining my interest for that sort of thing to definitely look into it. And it's almost like if he could promise that, but then nobody can promise anything. But that's why I say, I hate to say the word trust, but he's definitely got my attention“
Donna, school finance, Bournemouth 

You can listen to the full episode here. 

Do Britons really want to ‘build, baby, build’?

As the government’s flagship Infrastructure and Planning Bill enters Parliamentary ‘ping pong’, our latest research with RSPB (All Under One Roof) looks at where Britons are on housebuilding, and whether the NIMBY/YIMBY debate reflects public opinion.

Britons are clear that the country faces a housing crisis: seven in ten agree with this, and around one-in-five choose affordable housing as a top national issue. Yet despite this there are some challenges to a “build baby, build” pitch. 

A key reason is that many people don’t connect increased housing supply with lower costs, and so don’t see just more building, as a silver bullet to the housing crisis. Just 22 per cent cite a lack of housebuilding as a main cause of the housing crisis, while more than half cite the unaffordability of existing homes. Britons are twice as likely to oppose luxury homes being built in their area as they are to oppose affordable housing.

Additionally, protecting nature is a priority across the political spectrum, whereas Brits are more divided on housebuilding: every voter group says they would be significantly more likely to vote for a party that made the protection of nature a key part of their policy platform, yet only Labour and Liberal Democrat voters say the same about building new homes. 

This is why the YIMBY/NIMBY framing risks missing the point. Most Britons fall somewhere in the middle, trying to balance the need for more homes with the desire to protect nature. Only 17 per cent say they would usually oppose any new development, and 26 per cent would usually support it. Half say they would assess each case on its own merits. And when housebuilding is presented as a trade-off with environmental standards, 52 per cent say they prefer to maintain high environmental protections even if it means fewer homes being built, compared to 20 per cent who disagree.
The risk for proponents of a more ambitious building agenda is that, if the debate is framed as building versus nature, Britons will choose nature.
You can find the full report here:

Britons’ hopes for COP30

On Monday, we hosted a webinar exploring the public’s changing attitudes toward climate action and public opinion on the energy transition in the context of a cost of living crisis and unpredictable geo-politics.

We found that, at a topline level, there is high public support for the Paris Agreement and the 2 degree target. Notably, Britons are less polarised on this target than on net zero, with almost every segment more likely to support than oppose the 2 degree target.

Yet while support for the goal is high, there is a widespread pessimism about whether it will be achieved. Less than a fifth (18 per cent) think it is likely that the world will keep to the target, while seven in ten (69 per cent) say it is unlikely. This scepticism extends across both supporters and opponents of the target, although those who oppose the target are particularly pessimistic with almost half (47 per cent) saying it is impossible to meet it.

The research unpacks this sense of scepticism, how Britons see the UK’s role internationally, and the political implications of climate action (or inaction) closer to home.

You can watch the full webinar and find the full briefing here:

Webinar Invitation: Could green spaces rebuild trust in Government?

We’d like to invite you to our upcoming webinar on More in Common’s latest research, which finds that restoring and improving Britain’s parks and green spaces could play a vital role in rebuilding confidence in the government’s ability to improve people’s lives and communities - the collapse of which is driving lack of trust in the Government.

We’ll explore what Britons value most in their local areas, how access to green space shapes people’s wellbeing, and what the public want from the government in the years ahead.

Register here:

As always, thank you for reading! And please let us know what you think.

All the best,

Luke