Britons and the Budget

Our research ahead of Wednesday’s Budget found that the Chancellor delivered her statement to a country that was already deeply pessimistic about the state of the economy. Most Britons - 52 per cent - believe the UK is in a recession, and 57 per cent are unsure if the cost of living crisis will ever end. That figure is the highest since we began tracking in 2022, and ten points higher than immediately before last year’s Budget. Majorities also believe that public services (69 per cent), government finances (74 per cent) and the British economy as a whole (66 per cent) are in a bad state.

What’s interesting is that across these different measures, Labour’s remaining voters seem like outliers in their optimism. They are the only voter group who do not believe the UK is in a recession. Meanwhile, Reform UK voters are the most pessimistic: 72 per cent believe the cost of living crisis may never end, and 63 per cent think the UK is in a recession. As we discuss in Shattered Britain, this sense of exhaustion is a key driver of the public mood, and is one of the factors driving voters away from the status quo.

And while it may be too early to tell how specific policies will ultimately land with the public, it is clear that the briefings and leaks that preceded the Budget had primed the public to expect the worst. Around two-thirds of Britons expected that they would have to cut back on their personal spending because of measures in the budget, and 57 per cent expected their quality of life to get worse. Britons who are struggling financially were the most pessimistic of all: 76 per cent of those who say they struggle to make ends meet told us they expected their quality of life to worsen as a result of the Budget.

Our polling also found that the Government’s decision not to increase income tax likely avoided a significant breach of trust. Britons told us that breaking Labour’s manifesto pledge could be a scandal worse than Partygate. When we asked the public to rate different controversies on a scale from 0 to 10 - where 0 means ‘not at all damaging’ and 10 means ‘extremely damaging’ - the average Briton placed a potential manifesto break at 8.08, higher than Partygate (7.54), the Winter Fuel Allowance (7.81) or the PPE scandal (7.82). But while not increasing tax rates may have helped the Government avoid the worst of the backlash, many Britons (47 per cent) said that freezing the tax bands in itself would constitute a breach of the manifesto tax pledge.

Finally, how do Britons feel about the Chancellor’s ‘smorgasbord’ approach to taxes? There has been a debate about whether increasing a range of smaller taxes, rather than hitting the big red button on income tax rates, is likely to go down well with the public. On the one hand, many of the smaller policies are not unpopular in isolation. Last week we tested a range of different policies that the Government was reportedly considering (albeit with far less detail) and found that many of those that made it into the Budget were relatively popular: 69 per cent said they’d back higher taxes on online gambling, for example. However, there is a risk that by distributing the tax burden across a range of different measures, it becomes easier for people to find something they don’t like.

Of the ten policies we tested, many were relatively popular alone, yet only one in five Britons say they do not oppose any of them. In a focus group, we also heard from voters who felt that the smorgasbord approach was ‘sneaky’ and ‘backhanded’. So while the Government may have avoided the breach of trust that would have accompanied a break in the manifesto pledge on income tax, the public’s verdict will depend on how they tell the story about the range of other tax rises, and the positive reasoning behind their tough decisions.

You can read our full Budget research briefing, Let’s do the Doom Loop again, through the link below.

We were also delighted to see our pre-Budget polling on the front page of the Sunday Times last weekend. You can find that piece here.

Find the full briefing

The view from the focus groups: was the Budget “meh”?

Just hours after the Budget announcement, we spoke to a group of voters in Aldershot to get their initial reaction. A former ‘Blue Wall’ Conservative stronghold, the seat that swung to Labour for the first time in last year’s General Election. The voters we spoke to had been part of that shift, all voting Labour in 2024. But many now said they felt disappointed by Labour's time in government.

“I think actually the thing that makes me most angry about this Labour government is that I was really hopeful for them.”
Rebecca, lecturer

For many of those we spoke to, this disillusionment was partly driven by a feeling that the cost of living crisis was making it increasingly difficult to reach a sense of financial security. The group were mostly in what we would think of as high-paying jobs; all of them owned their homes. Yet they felt that the ‘goal posts’ were being moved, retirement felt far away, and felt it was becoming more difficult to earn a comfortable life.

“Frustrating. It's probably the word I would use. Somebody who works in a good job who earns a reasonable salary. It's frustrating to not be in a more secure financial position sometimes. And that's not through any fault I would say, of not handling your money effectively. I just think it's sort of stacked against you. The people that are working hard and earning a decent wage, trying to get childcare costs under control and it just becomes a bit of a vicious cycle in the end. And you sort of question while you're doing what you're doing.”
Hayley, teacher

“On paper you think, yeah, actually I should be doing pretty well here. But the reality of the situation is once you pay out your nursery fees, your breakfast clubs, your afterschool clubs, your whatever else, you are left in a bit of a position where there's not actually that much left in the pot.”
Martin, product manager

“Probably a bit scary really because I think the goalposts seem to move all the time. So people have said you think you're doing the right thing, it's like savings, you think you're doing the right thing, you're being sensible, but then you get penalised.”
Annette, executive assistant

And what about the budget itself? After weeks of chaotic leaks and briefings, some felt that the announcement itself was anticlimactic, or a ‘damp squib’. Yet certain policies - such as the freeze on income tax bands and the reduced tax-free cash ISA allowance - had cut through.

“That's kind of how I felt (about the income tax bands) . I didn't know if it was a little bit sneaky. It feels a little bit underhand. I think it's great that the minimum wages are increasing for each age group. I think it needs to happen because life is so expensive, but you're just being a little bit sneaky here about taking more tax, aren't you? That's just kind of how it feels to me.”
Hayley, teacher

“It wasn’t a bad budget because they haven’t made things significantly worse,” he said. “But it wasn’t a good one. It was just … meh.”
Martin, product manager

“It’s all about playing safe, not rocking the boat, just doing the bare minimum rather than really tackling some of the really big issues.”

Annette, executive assistant

“And I think trust has been broken in politicians, especially by the last government. And I think the fact that they have started backtracking a little bit and I think the trust in politics and politicians is so low that they're almost destroying it completely. Because now you've got people that are like, last lot we're rubbish, this lot are doing the same. Where do you go next?”

Rebecca, lecturer

You can read our op-ed in the Guardian about the focus group here:

Read the article

Is President Trump helping or hindering the peace process?

With peace talks under strain, we asked the British public what they thought about the US and Russia’s original 28-point plan - and whether Donald Trump was helping or hindering the peace process.

The British public oppose many of the key points of the draft peace plan. With Vladimir Putin again insisting that Ukraine would have to give up land in order for peace to be possible, we found that most Britons oppose territorial concessions. Six in ten Britons (59 per cent) believe it would be unacceptable to ask Ukraine to give up parts of Ukraine, compared with 18 per cent who find it acceptable. Half of Britons (51 per cent) also think it’s unacceptable for Ukraine to recognise the Donbas as part of Russia, or even to give up its claim to Crimea.

Brits also seem uncomfortable with any concessions that could hamper Ukraine’s ability to defend itself. The proposal that generated the strongest opposition was the suggested reduction of the Ukrainian army from 900,000 to 600,000 personnel (although Ukraine has now agreed that they could limit their army to 800,000). Half of Britons also oppose a ban on Ukraine permitting NATO troops in their territory, and 47 per cent oppose a ban on Ukraine joining NATO.

The importance of Ukraine defending its sovereignty against Russian aggression is a clear point of unity across the UK. Three-quarters of Britons believe this is important to the UK, with only 8 per cent saying it’s unimportant. This view holds across voter groups and age groups, though it is felt particularly strongly among older generations.

Although Donald Trump has played a visible role in discussions surrounding the proposed peace treaty, Britons are sceptical about his impact. They are far more likely to see the US president as a hindrance than a help to the process. Fewer than a quarter believe he is contributing positively to restoring peace in Ukraine, while 47 per cent view him as a hindrance and 21 say neither.

You can read POLITICO's great writeup of the research here.

Join our upcoming webinars:

Post-Budget Briefing

Monday 1 December, 13:00 - 14:00

We will present brand new snap polling and focus group insights, gauging the public’s early reactions to the Budget. We will also discuss the political implications for the Chancellor, Prime Minister and all political parties.

Appetite for change: what do Britons want from their food system?

Thursday 4 December, 11:00 - 12:00

This More in Common webinar will discuss the appetite for change across the country with regards to the food system. More in Common research has revealed that the majority of Britons think that we are eating worse than previous generations. That begs the question, what's going wrong, who do the public blame, and what do they want done about it?

As always, thank you for reading! And please let us know what you think.

All the best,

Luke