Is the two-party dominance over? And how would the segments vote today?

This week's voting intention stood out for a few reasons. First, we saw Labour fall to just 18 per cent of the vote - the lowest we have ever recorded for the Labour Party, and the first time since June that they've slipped into third place behind the Conservatives.

At the same time, we saw the Green Party climb to 12 per cent, their highest ever vote share. It's the fourth week in a row that we've seen their vote share increase, now placing them just one point behind the Liberal Democrats, and only seven points behind Labour. To give you a sense of how dramatic this is: the gap between Labour and Reform is almost twice as wide as the gap between the Greens and Labour. Of course, this is just one poll, but it is part of a wider story we’re seeing across the polling industry: a decline in support for Labour and the Conservatives while the Green Party climbs in the polls and Reform maintains a clear lead.

This isn't a new story; support for the two main parties has been in slow decline for decades. Back in the early post-war period, it wasn't rare for Labour and the Conservative to earn more than 90 per cent of the vote between them with a few blips such as the 2017 election when two party dominance seemed to reassert itself. The 2024 General Election was defined by an almost gravitational pull toward smaller parties, and we saw the lowest combined vote share for the two main parties in any General Election since the Second World War.

Since the Election, this fragmentation has accelerated: in April of this year, we found that the two main parties’ combined vote share had dropped to less than half (48 per cent). And in this week’s poll, it has fallen to its lowest ever, with just over a third (37 per cent) of voters supporting the two main parties.

But why has politics changed so much in such a short period of time? Our Seven Segments can offer a useful insight into the splintering of our political system.

Starting with Progressive Activists, our most economically and socially left-leaning segment. They formed the core of the Labour Party’s support under Jeremy Corbyn in 2019 - with nearly three in five voting Labour. Under Keir Starmer, this dropped to just under half in the 2024 General Election. And now, for the first time, the Green Party has taken the lead. Progressive Activists often describe feeling disillusioned with what they see as Labour’s rightward turn, and frustrated with what they see as a slow pace of change.

The Incrementalist Left are the only segment Labour now leads with, although their vote share has dropped by 9 points since the election. While they share many left-leaning values with Progressive Activists, they dislike radicalism, and are the most likely segment to say Keir Starmer needs more time to fix the problems facing Britain. However, many are becoming frustrated with slow progress key issues like the cost of living.

Established Liberals are an optimistic, institutionalist group who see a lot of good in the status quo. They are more likely to reject a “broken Britain” narrative, and are the only segment where both the Conservatives and Labour have maintained their vote share since the election. As we discussed in a previous newsletter, Labour’s stability among this segment is a sign that they’re increasingly becoming the party of the status quo.

Sceptical Scrollers are a younger, digitally-native group, with low trust in the establishment, and low turnout at elections. However, they consume a fair bit of politics on social media, and are more likely than other segments to post about politics online. Those who voted tended to support Labour in 2024, but Reform now leads with this group and the Greens have potential here.

Rooted Patriots are most similar to what we think of as Red Wall or hero voters. and at 20 per cent of the population, spread across swing seats, they’re often election deciders. In 2019, 63 per cent of this group voted for Boris Johnson’s Conservatives; today, they would take barely a third of that. Labour recovered to some degree with Rooted Patriots in 2024, but their gains in Red Wall seats were also driven by the collapse in the Conservative vote as Reform split the vote. They are socially conservative, migration-sceptical, left-leaning on economics, and feel overlooked by institutions. They also tend to be risk-averse, which is why fewer than one in five backed Reform in 2024. But attitudes are shifting: many now feel they may as well “roll the dice”, and Reform have a clear lead among them today.

As their name suggests, Traditional Conservatives were long the core of the Conservative Party’s base, and the only group the Conservatives clearly won in 2024. The fact that Reform now narrowly leads among this institutionalist group is a sign of how dramatically the Right of British politics has shifted, and how far Reform UK has expanded their voter coalition.

Finally, Dissenting Disruptors. This segment forms Reform UK’s base - in fact nearly half of the party’s 2024 voters were Dissenting Disruptors. They are the most unhappy with the status quo, many believe that British identity is disappearing, and that elites not only overlook but actively disparage people like them. Since the election, their desire to ‘burn down’ our existing institutions and start again has only hardened. Today, around two-thirds say they would vote Reform.

Britons and tax

Following the Chancellor’s speech on Monday - and as details slowly emerge about the tax measures that might be in the budget later this month - how would Britons respond to the prospect of tax hikes on ‘working people’?

Unsurprisingly, Britons oppose increasing income tax to pay for government spending by a margin of three-to-one. Interestingly, only among those earning £100,000 or more does opposition fall below 50 per cent: 42 per cent of these high earners oppose increasing income tax; 41 per cent would support it.

Opposition to increasing income tax also spans across the political spectrum, although Labour and Liberal Democrat voters tend to be more supportive. Meanwhile Conservative and Reform voters are the most opposed, with more than two-thirds of each voter groups against increasing income tax.

But in a fiscal game of ‘would you rather?’, we asked Britons which of the ‘big three’ taxes they would rather increase. It turns out Britons (narrowly) prefer an increase in income tax over the other options: 23 per cent said they would prefer an increase in income taxes; 21 per cent said they would rather increase National Insurance. VAT was the least favourite rise: only 15 per cent said this would be the preferred option.

However, the largest group (41 per cent) said they did not know which of the three taxes they would rather see increased.

Earlier this week, we spoke to BBC Radio 4 for their series The Tax Conundrum. The episode includes a More in Common focus group where we asked Britons all about tax. I also spoke about the politics of taxation, and why raising taxes can be such a public opinion nightmare.

You can listen to the full episode here.

Remember, remember…

To mark Guy Fawkes night, we added him to our favourability tracker, asking Britons whether they have a positive or negative view of him. The 17th Century arsonist measured up quite well against 21st Century politicians, with a higher net favourability rating than any main party leader. In fact, he was the only figure with a positive net approval rating, at -2. This puts the would-be arsonist 48 points above the Prime Minister.

Although, somewhat surprisingly, a large number (37 per cent) take a neutral view of the man who tried to blow up the House of Lords and assassinate the King!

Four hundred and twenty years after the Gunpowder Plot was uncovered, its sentiment is perhaps not fully lost on some Britons. As you'll know if you've been reading this newsletter for a while, one of the key faultlines we use to understand public opinion in 2025 is whether Britons want to ‘preserve and improve’ our institutions, or ‘let them burn’ and start again from scratch. Fittingly, Britons who hold a positive view of Guy Fawkes are more likely to favour this radical, anti-system theory of change, whereas those who hold a negative view are more likely to argue that our institutions are worth preserving.

More in Common’s COP30 webinar

We’d like to invite you to our upcoming climate webinar to mark the beginning of COP30.

We’ll be sharing new research on the public’s hopes and expectations of COP30, and public opinion on the energy transition in the context of a cost of living crisis and unpredictable global politics. Closer to home, we’ll share our latest polling on a potential climate backlash, the electoral politics of the environment, and whether impatience for action is driving the Green Party’s bounce.

The webinar will be hosted at 1:30PM on Monday 10 November. Please sign up through the link below, and do share with any colleagues who might be interested:

Sign up

Join the team

We’re pleased to say we’re expanding the team, and are hiring for three exciting roles. Everyone at More in Common works across our core areas of research, communications, partnership, and client work, but you can find more information about the three specific roles below:

A data analyst, who will help to develop our technical expertise, with new statistical modelling approaches to understanding public opinion and new software scripts to automate our workflows.

A research associate, who will support and execute a range of quantitative and qualitative projects for More in Common’s own thought leadership work and our client/partner work.

A deputy director of research, who will lead our polling and research functions. This job will be posted later today, so please do check our jobs page for updates if you’re interested!

Please do apply if you’re interested, and feel free to pass this on to anyone you know who might be a good fit.

As always, thank you for reading. Have a lovely weekend!

All the best,

Luke