What next for the Liberal Democrats?To mark the Liberal Democrats’ annual party conference, we released new research looking at the opportunities facing the party, and the challenges that could threaten to hold them back.
The future of EDI in Britain: The Trump administration’s rollback of EDI initiatives has reset how many US institutions are approaching equity, diversity and inclusion, and sparked a wider debate. But our new report suggests that there remains a distinctive British response to EDI.
Could Andy Burnham save the Labour Party? Our new hypothetical polling looks at how a Burnham leadership could affect politics.
But first, an invitation
This weekend, we’ll be travelling up to Liverpool for Labour Party Conference. In what’s set to be our biggest party conference season yet, we’ve got a packed schedule of events, discussing a broad range of issues with some great panelists including senior politicians, journalists, business leaders and campaigners.
You can find out about our plans for the conference below. Hope to see you there!
We really enjoyed being in Bournemouth earlier this week for the Liberal Democrat Party Conference. We presented the findings from our latest research, which looked into the opportunities for the Liberal Democrats, but also what could hold them back.
The Liberal Democrats certainly haven’t reached their ceiling. Three in ten likely voters would at least consider voting for the party.
Breaking down the Liberal Democrats’ support using our British Seven Segments, the three segments that form the core of their support are Incrementalist Left, Progressive Activists and Established Liberals. Our polling suggests that the party has opportunity to expand its support across all three of these groups: excluding those who are already voting for the party, 23 per cent of Established Liberals would consider doing so, alongside a fifth (19 per cent) of Progressive Activists and 17 per cent of Incrementalist Left Britons.
But expanding into these different groups will require addressing the concerns that might hold them back from voting Lib Dem. For Progressive Activists, the legacy of the coalition government is their top reason not to vote for the party; for Incrementalist Left, it is viability, and a sense that they haven’t said what they will actually do differently; for Established Liberals, it is a sense that the Lib Dems are not a serious party of government is the biggest deterrent.
This speaks to some of the biggest challenges holding back the Liberal Democrats: while they have continued to consolidate their vote since the General Election with strong local election results, they are yet to breakthrough beyond their Blue Wall heartlands: both their polling numbers and projected seats have barely budged.
More in Common’s research has identified three challenges or tests the party must overcome if they are to breakthrough: seriousness, purpose and change.
For seriousness, it’s a case of reassuring the public that they are a party ready for government, and have a clear plan for what they hope to achieve there. Half of Britons say the Liberal Democrats do not have a clear plan for government, with 29 per cent believing they do. And even among those who are supportive of the Liberal Democrats, doubts remain over how they would perform in a coalition government: just a fifth (21 per cent) of current Lib Dem voters say they would have a lot of confidence in the party to be part of a coalition, while a quarter (25 per cent) of those considering voting for the party either say they would not have much confidence or would have no confidence at all.
Additionally, there is a sense that the Liberal Democrats’ stunts are making it hard for them to present themselves as a serious party: Three in five Britons (61 per cent) say that Ed Davey’s stunts make the party look less serious, compared to just 21 per cent who believe they are a good way to gain media attention.
The challenge of purpose is also fundamental: Asked what they consider to be the purpose of the Liberal Democrats, Britons’ most common answer is “don’t know”, selected by a third (32 per cent)
Among Liberal Democrat voters and considerers, there is greater clarity. They overwhelmingly see the party’s function and objective as being to push the other parties towards more moderate policy solutions - and in particular to be a more moderate centre right voice to the Conservatives (selected by 45 per cent of their current voters).
This desire for moderation and consensus really came across in our focus groups:
“I think their purpose is just to provide an alternative that's supposed to be a bit more balanced I guess, than Labour or Conservative”.
Arianne, Retail Manager, Yeovil
And finally, the change challenge. Nine in ten Britons believe the country needs change, including a majority (55 per cent) who believe it needs fast, radical change.
Yet only a tenth of Britons believe the Liberal Democrats offer radical change, while 34 per cent believe they represent gradual change, and 33 per cent believe they do not represent change at all.
And in our focus group with Liberal Democrat voters we found that, while Liberal Democrat supporters are more gradualist than the general public in their view of change, this shouldn’t be mistaken for complacency or satisfaction with the status quo: focus groups with Liberal Democrat voters show they are disillusioned with the state of the country. In fact for some, a desire for change is what attracts them to the Liberal Democrats.
“There isn't a cigarette paper between Labour and Tories. It's sort of like a continuation of policies is how it feels to me. And it was like we need something different to make the country work”. Ben, project manager, Yeovil
“I think for any of them, politicians, to succeed in what they're promising us, there has to be massive fundamental change”. Tony, Telecomms manager, Yeovil
A lot has happened since our first study on British attitudes towards equality, diversity and inclusion in March 2024. Trump’s re-election has led to a re-evaluation of EDI in the US, and reignited an international debate.
This week, working with UCL Policy Lab and the University of Oxford, we published Finding Common Ground on EDI, a report into what Britons want from EDI. We found that, far from following in America’s footsteps, there remains a distinctive British response to equity, diversity and inclusion.
Britons don’t support calls to follow America's sweeping rollback of EDI initiatives. Only 37 per cent support cutting back EDI in public bodies, with even less appetite (23 per cent) for private sector roll backs. This reflects a British preference for bottom-up, context-dependent approaches over top-down mandates.
But what do Britons mean when they think about EDI?
Across our seven segments, there is some variation in how they define equality, diversity and inclusion - but there are some frames that resonate across the political spectrum.
The public's primary understanding of EDI as "respecting people from different backgrounds" and ensuring "equal opportunity" provides a foundation for broader coalition-building. Left of centre Progressive Activists' focus on "removing systemic barriers" can alienate other segments, suggesting those who seek to preserve support for EDI would do well to emphasise shared values of respect and fairness.
However, this doesn’t mean that support for EDI can be taken for granted. In fact, the proportion of Britons who believe EDI is a good thing has dropped slightly, from 62 per cent in November 2023, to 52 per cent earlier this year.
And one particular challenge that may need to be addressed is a perception of EDI as zero-sum, with winners and losers. While most see EDI as benefiting ethnic minorities, LGBT+ people, and women, critics increasingly view it as harmful to white people, men, and the working class. Advocates must demonstrate genuine benefits for all groups perceived as disadvantaged.
It’s clear that the public want an approach to refine, rather than abandon, EDI initiatives. Britons remain fundamentally supportive of EDI in principle but such support depends on careful implementation, and demonstrating that EDI genuinely works for everyone.
Could Andy Burnham rescue Labour?
Following the prospect of a possible future challenge to the Labour leadership, this week we tested a hypothetical: what would happen if Andy Burnham were Labour leader at the next election?
Our poll suggests Burnham could give Labour a five-point boost. In this scenario, a three-point Reform UK lead flips into a two-point Labour lead, with Labour on 30 per cent.
Labour’s gains would come from across the political spectrum. Nearly one in ten Conservative voters (9 per cent) say they would switch to Labour under Burnham, along with 7 per cent of Reform supporters. But the biggest losses would be among smaller centre or left-leaning parties: a fifth of Greens (21 per cent) and nearly a fifth of Liberal Democrats (19 per cent) would move to Labour in this hypothetical scenario.
As always with these hypotheticals, some caveats are needed. There is a risk of a “prince across the water” effect, and it’s likely that the public’s dissatisfaction with the government (and with politics as a whole) goes beyond a single leader. The more useful lesson is probably not about any one individual, but that there are still reachable votes across the political spectrum who want to be persuaded that the Government can deliver change.
Thanks so much for reading! As always, we really enjoy hearing your feedback, so do let us know your thoughts.
-1.png?upscale=true&width=588&upscale=true&name=The%20Opinion%20Brief%20(4)-1.png)
.png?upscale=true&width=1120&upscale=true&name=davey%20stunts%20@2x%20(7).png)
.png?upscale=true&width=1120&upscale=true&name=change%20type%20needed%20liberal%20democrat@2x%20(1).png)
.png?upscale=true&width=1120&upscale=true&name=Andy%20burnham%20hypothetical%20VI@2x%20(2).png)
