Are our energy bills making us miserable?

As we move into Autumn and the weather starts to turn, our latest research looks at just how central energy bills are to Britons' view that the country is broken and how - maybe more than anything else - they are driving a mood of national gloom.

Three quarters of people (73 per cent) are worried about what their bills will look like this winter, with a third very concerned. It isn’t just the most vulnerable who are struggling to pay their energy bills: three years of high energy bills have made more and more Brits feel they are ‘just about managing’. Concern about winter energy bills only drops among households with income over £100,000; for every other group two-thirds of Britons are concerned.

Copy of Energy bill concern by household income @2x (2)

We know that many Britons have found life too hard, for too long. Our research suggests that energy bills play an outsized role in exacerbating that. A fifth of Britons (21 per cent) have lived in uncomfortably cold homes to keep bills down, and almost three in ten (28 per cent) say bills have increased their anxiety and stress. 19 per cent even said they’re having trouble sleeping due to worries about bills. In focus groups, people told us about the toll this is taking on their mental health: family arguments over hot water, sitting in a cold house, watching the smart meter with anxiety.

"It makes me feel crappy to be honest because when you’ve worked really hard and you’re nearly 50 and you’re having to go on a smart meter so you can see what you’ve spent - yeah you want to get better in life, don’t you? Not get worse."

Carly, Retail Manager, Stevenage

"It's quite depressing though, isn't it? Because your home is your castle if you like and you want to go in and feel like if you're working, you want to come home and relax and enjoy your home. But if you're sitting there all wrapped up and you're consciously aware that you can only put your heating on for an hour and you're wrapped up in your hoody and your blankets. I think it affects your mental health, it has got to in some way…"
Tamsin, Retired, Wolverhampton

There is a danger that fatalism is starting to settle in, with some worrying this is the new normal, and driving their view that the country needs radical change. Six in ten are not sure energy bills will ever become affordable again, and only 13 per cent expect prices to come down by the end of next year. Interestingly, this is becoming a dividing line in politics, with Labour voters the only voter group where a slim majority believe energy bills will become more affordable in the next few years.

It's not going to happen, is it? Now they sort of get you used to a price they think, ‘well, they'll pay it’ so no, they're not going to bring it [energy bills] down.

Janet, Art Gallery Manager, Wolverhampton

While in focus groups people blamed the Ukraine war for initial rising costs, they are much more likely to point the finger at energy generators, energy suppliers, and above all, the government. Three quarters (75 per cent) say the actions of the UK government are at least somewhat responsible.

In focus group conversations, participants believe the government could take action to reduce energy bills if it wanted to by lowering the price cap but was actively choosing to not do so.

"I think that the war in Ukraine will have affected it, but I think there's a lot of idiots that make these decisions as well. And upper echelons in top management and top government that don't plan for five years ahead or 10 years ahead, they plan for the next quarter or the next election cycle"

Matt, Kitchen Designer, Wolverhampton

To change this perception the Government needs to find ways to show it is making an effort to bring down high bills in the short-term. Two in five people (43 per cent) believe the government either has no plan to bring down bills, or has one that is making things worse. In our focus groups in Wolverhampton and of ‘Stevenage Women’ in Stevenage, not a single participant could name anything the government was doing to cut costs. The mood was one of frustration that those in charge don't have to make the same sacrifices they do, and so don’t understand, or don’t care about the impact high energy bills are having on ordinary Britons.

And this is where the political consequences come in: the sense that the government is either unable or unwilling to lower bills is encouraging voters to look outside of the mainstream. Labour is losing more voters among those who are most anxious about bills. Among those concerned about their costs this winter, just 57 per cent of 2024 Labour voters say they’d back the party again. Among those not concerned, that rises to 68 per cent. The more people feel financially exhausted and anxious, the more they’re open to losing faith in government, and the political system altogether.

They've all got the same game plan. They all know what they're doing. It's the rich for the rich and the poor can just get on with it and live their life. I really don't think it matters who's in charge of this country, what party is in charge. I think we're always going to be in the same position we're in.

Sarah, School Protection Officer, Stevenage

Energy bills, maybe more than almost anything else, are driving the grim national mood, eroding trust in government and fuelling the drift away from the political mainstream. If the government hopes to stop that drift, it would be right to make bringing down energy bills in the short-term a top priority in this Autumn’s budget and beyond.

You can find the full research here:

Read the research

Britons’ job spec for the Labour Party’s next Deputy Leader

With a week left until nominations close for the Deputy Leadership contest, what are Britons hoping to see from Angela Rayner’s replacement? What people say they want from the next deputy leader of the Labour Party tells us a lot about the state of politics, and about how they see the state of the Labour party.

Being willing to challenge Keir Starmer is a top priority for more than a quarter of Britons (27 per cent). Even among Labour’s own voters, this ranks above loyalty: 22 per cent say they want the next deputy to be willing to take on the Prime Minister, compared with 19 per cent who think showing loyalty to him is more important.

Labour supporters are also looking for unity and new ideas. A third (33 per cent) say they want someone who can reunite the party’s different factions, and 28 per cent say bringing fresh ideas into Labour is one of the top two things they want from the role.

But top of the list is authenticity. Four in ten Britons (39 per cent) say “communicating authentically with the public” is one of the most important qualities in a new deputy leader, rising to almost half (49 per cent) among Labour’s own supporters - far higher than demographic attributes.

Angela Rayner’s straight-talking style often came up in focus groups as a rare example of a politician who “says it as it is”. That sense of plain speaking is what many feel is missing from politics today (and fuels the rise on non mainstream parties who are “more willing to tell it like it is” , so it’s no surprise that it tops the list of what people want from her successor.

Why is Labour leading among privately educated voters?

If you’ve been subscribed to this newsletter for a while, you’ll know we love doing unusual breakdowns of our voting intention polling, some more serious than others: our past favourites include voting intention by favourite cheese, favourite drinks or plans for the summer.

Our latest version broke down voting intention by the type of school Britons attended. Unsurprisingly, state school attendees reflect the overall public, however with a slightly wider Reform lead (13 points over Labour, compared to 11 points among the overall electorate).

Conservatives’ strongest vote share is among those who went to grammar school: the Tories earn 23 per cent of the vote among this group, compared to 18 per cent overall.

Strikingly, the only group among whom Reform doesn’t lead is private school graduates: if the electorate were restricted to those with a private education, Labour would lead with 38 per cent of the vote - a 13 point lead over Reform.

So what explains Labour’s strength among the privately educated? Does that make sense, given they have traditionally been the party of the working class?

Our seven segments give us a clue. Labour has retained the largest vote share among Established Liberals, the most optimistic and comfortable of the seven segments who tend to feel that the status quo is working for them. By contrast, those most dissatisfied with the status quo are looking elsewhere, particularly to Reform.

That’s why this story goes beyond class. Private education is certainly not a perfect proxy for faith in the system, but those who attended private school are far more likely to think the status quo works for them. Those for whom the system is working - often the more comfortable - are more likely to back Labour as the incumbent, pro-system party and to see greater downsides in ‘burning everything down’. Those who feel the system has failed them are less afraid of tearing it up, and more willing to ‘roll the dice’ with Reform UK.

Find us at Lib Dem conference

We'll be at the Liberal Democrat conference this weekend with two panel events. We've got great panelists and some brand new research to share - find more information below. Hope to see you there!

Liberal Democrat Party Conference Programme

Thanks so much for reading! As always, we really enjoy hearing your feedback, so do let us know your thoughts.

All the best,
Luke Tryl

Executive Director