Your weekly roundup of public opinion, from Briton's view on the Israel-Iran conflict, to the government's welfare reforms, assisted dying and Net Zero
Hope you’re keeping cool and looking forward to the weekend. Here’s your weekly roundup of public opinion on the big issues of the week and an invitation to our London Climate Action Week webinar:
How are Britons responding to the Israel-Iran conflict? Our polling finds that the public is deeply concerned about escalation, but split on what Britain’s role should be.
Public opinion on the government’s welfare reforms. Could changes to disability-related benefits spark a rebellion beyond Westminster?
Britons on assisted dying, ahead of the landmark bill’s Third Reading in the House of Commons.
In other news: how Britons think and talk about the grooming gangs, and what they want to see from the remaining aid budget.
Following a recent escalation in the conflict between Israel and Iran, we found widespread public concern about the situation worsening: seven in ten (71 per cent) say they are worried about the conflict escalating, including 29 per cent who are ‘very worried’.
There is strong consensus that Iran must be prevented from developing nuclear weapons. Eighty-four per cent of the public say this is important, including a majority (53 per cent) who view it as ‘very important’. This view cuts across the political spectrum, though Conservative and Liberal Democrat voters are the most likely to say Iran must be stopped from acquiring a nuclear weapon.
Those under the age of 25 tend to be more ambivalent. However, even among this group, a majority agree it is important to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.
However, when it comes to the UK’s role in stopping Iran, the public is more split.
Forty-four per cent of the public believe that the UK should support military efforts to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, while 31 percent disagree. Conservative and Reform voters are most supportive of a strike. While Liberal Democrats are among those most concerned about the prospect of Iran developing nuclear weapons, they are the only voter group who are more likely to oppose than support a British intervention.
Could the government’s welfare reforms be a public opinion gamble?
On Wednesday, Liz Kendall unveiled the government’s long-awaited welfare reforms. Alongside reforms to Universal Credit, they included significant changes to the eligibility of Personal Independence Payments (PIP). Our research suggests that these changes could put the Government on the wrong side of public opinion.
The public are not opposed to the principle of welfare reform, and most broadly agree with Liz Kendall’s assessment that the benefits system needs change: two-thirds (68 per cent) say the Government should do more to help people into work, while only 15 per cent disagree.
However, while Britons do agree that we spend too much on welfare, they see a rising cost of living as the biggest reason for the increase in welfare spending.
Reductions in the level of, or eligibility for, PIP - a disability-related benefit - could be particularly unpopular. Our polling shows that 45 per cent think that the government should reverse planned cuts, while only 21 per cent disagree.
While general perceptions of benefits vary by party support, there is a high level of political consensus on disability-related benefits: even Conservative and Reform voters are more likely to support than oppose a reversal. However, the PIP cuts are particularly unpopular among Labour’s own voters: 52 per cent support a reversal, while only 20 per cent would oppose this.
In March, we asked about the specific requirements for qualifying for Personal Independence Payments,and found that the public's threshold appears significantly lower than that set by the Government’s reforms.
Many things that will not meet the four-point threshold are seen by the public as valid stand alone criteria for support: 74 per cent of Britons believe that needing assistance to wash below the waist should automatically qualify someone for disability-related benefits; 72 per cent say the same about needing help to dress their lower body; 70 per cent say the same about needing assistance to get out of the bath or shower.
Opposition to disability benefit cuts often relates to people’s personal experiences and relationships with people who are dependent on the benefits in their day to day lives - there is concern about what cuts will leave more people they know struggling.
While the PIP changes are unlikely to cut through quite as much as changes to the Winter Fuel Allowance, it’s worth noting that 34 per cent of Britons say they know someone on disability-related benefits; 37 per cent know someone on other benefits such as universal credit. MPs are due to vote on the Bill in a couple of weeks, but if people see the direct effects of these reforms on their friends and family, the anger outside of Westminster could last a lot longer.
Britons on assisted dying: have views shifted during the course of the debate?
This afternoon, the Terminally Ill Adults Bill faces its Third Reading in the House of Commons, in what could be a historic change to the country’s legal and social fabric. So what does the country think, and how has this changed since the Bill first entered Parliament?
In November, we published Proceeding with Caution, an in-depth look into public attitudes toward assisted dying. In the report, we found that nearly two-thirds (65 per cent) of Britons supported in principle the legalisation of assisted dying, but had deep concerns about safety and abuse, and only wanted to see stringent safeguards to protect the vulnerable.
Since we published that report, we find that support in principle for a change in the law has remained stable. 63 per cent support the principle of legalising assisted dying, while 16 per cent oppose it.
Similarly, 63 per cent of Britons say they support the Bill currently being debated in Parliament and 15 per cent are opposed. When asked about the original Bill debated in Parliament last year, 64 per cent supported it and 11 per cent were opposed.
So it’s clear that the public is still hoping to see a change in the law. However, few people will have followed the debate closely, and MPs will ultimately have to judge whether the Bill meets the tight safeguards - particularly against coercion - that the public expects to accompany any legalisation of assisted dying.
In other news:
How do Britons think about the grooming gang scandal? On Monday, Baroness Casey published a report into the ‘collective failure’ of the British state in handling child sexual exploitation. In my thread here, I laid out how the public think about the scandal.
Following cuts to aid spending, what do the public want to see prioritised in the remaining budget? You can find our research here.
On Wednesday, I appeared before the select committee on Energy Security and Net Zero to give evidence about our research on public support for the energy transition. Listen to what I said here.
Invitation: Is Britain’s climate consensus under threat?
We’d like to invite you to a public opinion briefing for London Climate Action week, exploring new in-depth polling on climate attitudes in Britain. We'll unpack public support for climate action, but also look at the risks of erosion of trust in the energy transition, polarisation on net-zero, and what the public want to see next.
Date/Time: Tuesday 24 June, 11:00AM
If you're interested in joining, please sign up here:
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