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Dear friend,

Happy Friday!

We’ve got lots of interesting new research to share with you, so let’s jump straight in. In this week’s newsletter:

• Three record-breaking stats in this week’s poll, and what they tell us about what’s happening to British politics.

• As part of This Place Matters, a map of the most and least connected places in Britain.

• How did the COVID pandemic change how Britons spend their time?

• In other news: the Online Safety Act, a second Brexit referendum, and why are women switching to Reform UK?

Three record-breaking stats and what they tell us about British politics

In this week’s poll, we spotted three new records - two all-time highs and one all-time low - that reveal something interesting about what’s happening to our political landscape.

The first is in our weekly voting intention polling. We found a dramatic 9-point lead for Reform UK, riding high at 31 per cent of the vote. In the same poll, we see the Conservatives falling to 18 points, the lowest vote share we’ve ever recorded for them.

But that’s not the only surprise in our voting intention: it’s also the lowest combined vote share for the two main parties More in Common has ever seen.

To put that into context: in the 2024 election, the two main parties earned a combined vote share of just over 57 per cent, the lowest of any British General Election. It was cited as a historic indicator of the political fragmentation of British politics. Since the election, that combined vote share has dropped further, to the extent that only 2 in 5 voters say they would back either of the ‘main’ parties in an election held tomorrow.

Another, related record in this week’s poll: 72 per cent of Britons now say that Labour feels like ‘more of the same’ compared to the previous Conservative government - the highest we’ve recorded since we began asking the question back in September of last year. 

Perhaps most concerningly for the government, this sense of continuity extends across politics: even among those who voted for Labour in the General Election, the majority (53 per cent) say they feel like ‘more of the same’. With a growing number of Britons saying that the two main parties feel indistinguishable, it’s unsurprising that third parties, from Reform UK to Corbyn and Sultana’s new party on the left, seem positioned to benefit from disappointment with the mainstream.

The third and final record in this week’s poll came from our big issues tracker, where we ask the public what they think are the biggest issues facing the country. This week, the salience of migration reached an all time high, with half of Britons selecting at least one of asylum seekers crossing the channel or levels of immigration as among the top issues facing the country.

This reflects a long-term increase in the importance of migration to voters: since the beginning of 2024, the proportion of Britons who consider these to be top issues has risen dramatically, overtaking supporting the NHS as the second biggest issue facing the country, after the cost of living.

The surpassing of the NHS could be taken two ways: either Britons have begun to notice an improvement in the health service and a decline in waiting times so that it is no longer a top concern; or that immigration and the cost of living have overshadowed everything else and pushed the NHS out of mind.

The increased salience of migration is good news for Nigel Farage and his party: Reform UK leads by a mile among voters who think immigration is one of the top issues facing the country. In fact, if the electorate were limited to voters who believe that channel crossings are a top issue, Reform UK would win a historic landslide with 56 per cent of the vote.

Yet Reform’s lead is no longer limited to migration: they are also beginning to lead on crime. As Reform UK launch their criminal justice policies in ‘crime week’, our polling finds Reform with a significant 16-point lead among Britons who prioritise crime as one of the top issues facing the country. Could this reflect the party breaking beyond their reputation as a single-issue party and winning voters with a broader range of concerns?

There’s still a long way to go until the next election, and a lot can change. But with the salience of migration reaching an unprecedented high, and belief in the new government seemingly sinking, the political fragmentation that has defined Labour’s first year looks set to continue.

A social connection map of Britain

Our latest research, in partnership with UCL Policy Lab and Citizens UK, shines a light on where social cohesion is strongest - and where it’s wavering. Our new MRP survey of over 13,000 people for the This Place Matters project reveals sharp divides in how connected people feel to the society around them.

Across the UK, 51 per cent of people say they feel disconnected from the society around them. But levels of self-reported connection vary dramatically between constituencies. In some, neighbours report strong ties and a sense of belonging. In others, majorities feel isolated from those around them - particularly in areas that have experienced economic decline, social fragmentation, or rapid change without integration.

Follow the link below to explore the full interactive map - and read about the factors that are shared by areas with high - or low - levels of social connection:

Has the pandemic changed how we spend our time?

The final COVID lockdown may have ended in spring 2021, but our research has consistently shown us that the pandemic has left a lasting impact on how we spend our time, and how we interact with those around us. 

Our new polling shows that many Britons now spend less time socialising with colleagues after work, chatting with neighbors and at community events. Alongside this, 31 per cent of us now spend more time on social media, while a quarter spend less time on the daily commute.

Interestingly,  29 per cent of people are spending more time with their families than before the pandemic, possibly due to the reliance of family support networks during the lockdowns.

The effects of the pandemic are distributed unequally across different groups. When comparing the data with responses to the question “How well off would you say you feel?”, there is a clear relationship between people's financial wellbeing and how much their habits have been impacted by the pandemic. Strikingly, those who say that they are struggling financially are twice as likely to say they spend less time at community events after the pandemic than those who say that they are financially comfortable; they’re also more likely to say that they’ve lost time with neighbours.

As we often discuss, younger Britons in particular saw their lives reshaped by the pandemic - but it’s clear that the lockdowns affected different age groups in different ways. Every age group now spends more time on social media, but this has increased most among 18-24 year olds,  with half (48 per cent) saying their social media screentime is now higher than before. Meanwhile, those in their thirties and forties tend to say they spend less time commuting, and less time socialising with colleagues after work - but also less time partaking in community events. Older Britons - particularly those above 75 - are much more likely to say they’ve been spending more time with family since the pandemic. 

This points to some of the most fundamental social shifts we’ve seen in recent years; in focus groups we hear from people who feel that the shared spaces for interaction - the pub, the office - are no longer available to them. For some, this is a positive shift: spending less time commuting or drinking with colleagues while spending more with their family and loved ones. Yet for some - particularly younger or financially insecure Britons - it risks compounding the slide into isolation that we’ve explored with This Place Matters.

I worked from home for three years during lockdown, and mentally it has really affected me. Because you’re stuck in the house and not seeing people.

Linzi, bank worker, Merthyr Tydfil

Lockdown changed a few things. I used to go in the pub and socialise, but after Covid I don’t, I’m less likely to talk to people now.

Gordon, painter, Dudley

However, the polling also highlights some of the positive lasting impacts of the pandemic. On a final heartwarming note, older Britons - particularly those over the age of 75 - tend to say that since the pandemic they spend more time with family and neighbours. While the negative social impacts of COVID have remained, so too have some of the support networks that built up throughout the lockdowns.

In other news...

What do Britons think of the Online Safety Act? Our polling found that, on the surface, the policy looks like a public opinion win for the government: Britons are three times more likely to support than oppose age verification for restricted content.

However, there are also widespread concerns about the policy: large majorities are concerned about handing over personal information for age verification, the risk of political censorship, and the possibility that access to VPNs could help young people to bypass the rules altogether. Yet despite these misgivings, seven in ten Britons believe that child safety is worth the tradeoffs - believing that protecting children from harmful content online is more important than online privacy or free expression.

You can find Luke’s thread here. 

Only three in ten would still back Brexit. As part of our research on British attitudes toward foreign policy for the Sunday Times, we found dramatic shifts in public opinion on UK-EU relations. Nearly half of Britons (49 per cent) now think there should be a referendum on rejoining the EU in the next five years, while 37 per cent who oppose the idea. Most Britons (53 per cent) now say they would vote for Remain in a Brexit referendum held today, while only three in ten (29 per cent) say they would vote leave.

But here’s a note of caution from our focus groups: while people express a desire for closer ties with Europe, the idea of re-opening Brexit debates often triggers frustration and political fatigue.

Read the Sunday Times piece about the research here.

Why are women switching to Reform UK? “Since the general election, Reform has gained 14 percentage points among women, while Labour has lost 12, but with every cohort over the age of 45 the swing is even bigger.”

In his new piece this week, Tim Shipman uses our research to explore why Reform UK is gaining ground among women. From concerns about migration to a general disillusionment about the status quo, the piece goes deep into the factors that have allowed Nigel Farage and his party to expand beyond their traditional base.

You can find the great article here, and read Luke’s thread on the topic here.

As always, thank you for reading - and please do let us know your thoughts.

All the best,

Louis O'Geran

Research and Communications Associate at More in Common