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Dear friend,  

Happy Friday - hope you've had a great week!

In this week's newsletter:

• Public expectations ahead of President Trump's summit with Vladimir Putin.
  
  
• The view from the focus group: what do residents think about what happened in Epping?
  
  
• Do you like chatting with the people who live next door? one in ten Britons say they go out of their way to avoid chatting with their neighbours.
  
  
• Getting about: how Britons view transport. In our latest research with IPPR, we take a deep dive into public attitudes towards transport.
  

What do the public expect from the summit in Alaska?

This evening, President Trump is meeting with President Putin in Alaska. The talks could be a critical moment in the war in Ukraine, yet few Britons are holding their breath for a positive outcome.

In focus groups, we often hear from people who are fatigued, worried and anxious at President Trump’s unpredictability and occasional hostility towards Ukraine and its leader. As a result, barely a quarter trust him to deliver a deal that is favourable to Ukraine.

What’s more, many Britons don’t think the US President even has the West’s interests at heart. 

Sixty-one per cent of Britons say that Donald Trump does not represent the wishes and interests of the West and its allies. This is a viewpoint shared by every voter group except for those who voted Reform in 2024. Notably, older Britons are the most likely to say Trump does not represent the West’s interests. 

Britons are also frustrated that Ukraine seems to be sidelined in critical peace talks.

In March, we asked Britons whether it would be acceptable to exclude Ukraine from peace talks, and their answer was definitive: only 15 per cent said the US should engage in 1-1 peace talks with Russia, while 72 per cent said that they should only proceed if Ukraine was involved. This includes 38 per cent who said that peace talks should only proceed if both Ukraine and Europe are involved.

What happened in Epping?

July saw protests at asylum accommodation in Epping and other parts of the country; in some cases, violence broke out and there were clashes with the police and intimidation of hotel staff.

Last week, we spoke to a group of residents from in and around Epping to discuss the events that had put the small town at the centre of a national story. People told us that they were concerned about the use of the Bell Hotel to house asylum seekers, and angry that the local residents had not been consulted.

“You've got absolutely no idea who's there (...) I mean to put 'em in hotels just seems crazy, especially in the middle of a community.” 

Julian, retired

"I don't think they think about the communities and the people that live there. (...) So I do think there is a lot of concern from local residents and someone said maybe in Army Barracks or maybe somewhere where they can check people out first and maybe not just have so many people moving into one area at once might be a solution."

 Gabby, teacher

“Especially when you have children, you do worry about who is coming into the country, who's coming into the area and what they're all about.”
Melissa, accounts manager

"Something in me feels like you have to be pretty desperate to want to get on a dinghy across the channel. So something about me feels very sorry for these people.”
Erica, Retired

Despite that frustration at not having a say over the use of the hotel, the residents we spoke to firmly rejected the violent protests that followed. Some had found the violence in their community ‘upsetting’ or even ‘petrifying’. Many shared their frustration that the local situation had seemingly been hijacked by political groups and ‘influencers’ from across the country.

This reflects wider public opinion: we know from our polling that most Britons support the right to protest peacefully against asylum accommodation, but draw a firm line at violence and intimidation.

“I felt quite ashamed to be British (...) The hatred in people's faces was quite upsetting.”.

Howard, retired

“I drove straight into it half past 10 at night, and it was petrifying with all the riot police”

Jo, NHS worker

“When you start attacking the police, to be honest, you've lost the argument.”
Julian, retired

“I think to have that many people show up, there is a local feeling about it, but I think also it has gone wider than that. And you can see the social media influencers and stuff. If you look at live videos on YouTube when it's all going off, you can see there are other influences and people on the far right involved.”
Jo, NHS worker

Asked to describe in their own words what had caused the unrest in their town, Epping residents told us that it was a buildup of resentment and ‘discontent’, and a broader feeling that locals had little control over what happened in their community.

“To be putting asylum seekers within a community - and it is quite a small community - And with people's discontent, with whatever else is going on, that is the final straw for people.”
Erica, Retired

“I would just say, I think in general a lot of the frustrations and the anger that is shown at these protests - which are definitely not warranted, especially towards the police - but I think it stems really from just a general lack of control when it comes to the government. When it comes to immigration. I think it's a subject that comes up time and time again. It doesn't matter which political party we vote for, nothing really changes. And I think there's just, in my opinion, a frustration at the lack of control or direction of where this is going to go. How is it going to improve? What changes are going to happen?”
Alisha, legal secretary

You can read the full writeup of the focus groups - and our wider polling on changing attitudes toward asylum accommodation and protest, here.

Good neighbours?

When was the last time you chatted with your neighbours? One in five Britons speak to their neighbours every day, and nearly two-thirds do so at least weekly. Yet a tenth of Britons say that they never speak to their neighbours.

As with all measures of social connection, this is not spread evenly across the country; it varies based on where you live, how old you are, and how well-off you feel. Older Britons are far more likely to chat to their neighbours, as are people who describe themselves as more financially comfortable.

Eighty-four per cent of those above the age of 75 say they speak to their neighbours at least weekly, compared to less than half of Gen Z. Those who describe themselves as financially comfortable are far more likely to speak to their neighbours than those who are struggling.

While we might expect cities to be the most faceless,  those living in urban areas are actually the most likely to say that they speak to their neighbours every day! Although city dwellers are also more likely than average to say they never speak to their neighbours. Meanwhile those who live in villages speak to their neighbours most frequently overall: four in five say they do this at least once a week, and only 3 per cent say they never do so. Interestingly, it’s those who live in large towns who are least likely to speak to their neighbours on a weekly or daily basis.

But chatting with your neighbours isn't something that just happens; it often takes effort. While the majority of Britons tend to speak to their neighbours whenever the opportunity arises, a significant minority say they only do so reluctantly - or actively try to avoid it.

Among millennials, more than a fifth (22 per cent) say they only speak to their neighbours when they feel like they have to, and 15 per cent say that they actively avoid speaking to their neighbours. Interestingly though, while younger Britons are more likely to be reluctant to speak to their neighbours, they’re also the most likely to say they make an effort to do so: a quarter of Gen Z say that they actively try to speak to their neighbours, the highest of any generation.

It points to an emerging engagement gap opening up among younger Britons. While some seem to be withdrawing and reluctant to socialise with their neighbours, others are actively seeking opportunities to do so.

Getting about: how Britons view transport.

Beyond a few local elections or by-elections where specific transport issues have driven voters' decisions at the ballot box, transport is rarely considered a top priority in British politics. However, our new research with IPPR reveals that how well or badly our transport system works can have an outsized impact on how the public thinks about the country more broadly.

You can read IPPR’s report here, and our own writeup of the focus groups here.

That’s all for this week! Thanks for reading and - as always - please do feel free to share your thoughts.

All the best,
Luke Tryl

Executive Director