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Dear friend,

I hope this finds you well!

In this week’s newsletter:

• What do Britons think of the USA’s role as global policeman?

• More in Common’s latest MRP - and the role of tactical voting.

• Will SEND reforms be the Government’s next political row?

• Who counts as a ‘National Treasure’? And is there a minimum age requirement?

But first…ask the British public anything!

As we mentioned on our LinkedIn page yesterday, today we’re trying something new. Some of our best ideas for polling questions come from you! So we’d like to offer you a chance to submit your suggestions, and we’ll put one or two questions in this week’s poll.

This can be anything - perhaps a question relevant to your organisation’s work, or just something you’re curious about.

Simply reply to this email with your idea. If we end up using it, we’ll send you the results next week and publish the results in this newsletter.

What do Britons think of the USA’s role as global policeman?

As we approach one year since Donald Trump’s return to the White House, last week we asked Britons what they think about the state of the world, and the impact of the US President. 

While the fieldwork began on the evening of Friday 2 January, most of the respondents who took this survey had woken up to the news of the USA’s operation in Venezuela.

We found that very few Brits think the world is becoming a safer place to live: just 5 per cent say the world has become safer in the previous year, while more than 7 in 10 (72 per cent) per cent say the world is becoming more dangerous.

In addition, most people (60 per cent) in the UK would rather Britain was less like the US; just 15 per cent want to be more like the States. However, Reform UK voters are the exception, with views more evenly split: 35 per cent want Britain to be more like America, while a similar share (37 per cent) want the UK to be less like America and 23 per cent say they don’t want things to change either way.

The UK public generally view the US president’s impact on his own country, the UK, and the rest of the world as negative. Half (49 per cent) of Britons say the US president has had an overall negative impact on the US, compared with 30 per cent who say his impact has been positive. Only 18 per cent believe Trump has had a positive impact on the UK, while 47 per cent view his impact as negative. More than half (52 per cent)  say his impact on the world has been negative, compared with 22 per cent who see it as positive.

However, current Reform voters stand out in their view that the President's impact has been positive: they are more likely to say that Trump has had a positive than a negative impact on the USA and the world - although like other voter groups, they tend to think Trump has negatively affected the UK.

More in Common’s latest MRP - and the role of tactical voting.

Last Sunday, we released our latest MRP. Based on polling since the budget, it suggests that in an election tomorrow Reform could hope to secure a substantial three-figure majority (381 seats), while Labour could slump to just 85 seats. 

With Labour and the Conservatives earning just 155 seats between them, an election like this would mark the end of  the two-party dominance over British politics. The silver lining for the Conservatives, however, is that for the first time since the General Election, their seat share has risen in our MRP from 41 to 70 - perhaps a sign that they are beginning to regain some strength?

Meanwhile, the Green surge is appearing across the map, with Zack Polanski’s Green Party more than doubling their parliamentary presence from 4 to 9 seats, fuelled by disillusioned progressives abandoning the Labour Party.

While this result would be a resounding victory for Reform UK, it would also be highly disproportionate (Reform winning 60 per cent of seat on just 31 per cent of the vote), and so highly fragile. Nearly half of Reform’s projected seats would be marginals, giving the party a broad but extremely delicate majority. In this context, could tactical voting be enough to swing the election?

In the wake of the Caerphilly by-election, many are wondering whether tactical voting could define the next election - fuelled by reports of  plans unite progressive voters, and suggestions of a deal between Reform UK and the Conservatives. For the first time in this MRP, we have directly modelled how different degrees of progressive tactical voting could affect the overall result.

If just one in five voters who intend to vote for Labour, the Greens, or the Liberal Democrats voted tactically within this bloc in seats where their preferred party was less likely to win, they could take an extra 46 seats. If twice as many voted tactically - far from inconceivable given the Caerphilly result - Reform would no longer be projected a majority.

On the other hand, tactical voting between Conservative and Reform voters would mainly benefit Reform and be less dramatic overall -  if one in five voters intending to vote for the smaller of the two in their constituency voted for the other, the Conservatives could win a further 6 seats, and Reform another 22.

At 60 per cent tactical voting it would be more likely we would see a 5 party rainbow coalition of the left than a Reform Government or Tory-Reform Coalition, while Liberal Democrats losses would be reversed with a degree of tactical voting at this level.

There are a few heavy caveats here. The first is that in a volatile multi-party environment it will be difficult for voters to predict which direction to tactically vote. But more broadly, tactical voting would rely on a significant number of disillusioned progressives uniting behind the Labour Government. As our polling from last month showed, Britons are now more likely to say they would vote against Labour than against Reform - including a decent chunk of Green and Liberal Democrat voters!

Reform UK has so far managed to thrive off dissatisfaction with the political mainstream; the question as we approach the next General Election (and the upcoming elections in May) is whether voters feel it is worth voting tactically to maintain the status quo, or decide to ‘roll the dice’ on something new.

You can find the full MRP at the link below, as well as the Sunday Times’ fantastic writeup of the research here.

Will SEND reforms be the Government’s next political row?

There has been a sharp rise in the diagnosis of special educational needs and disabilities (SEND), now affecting one in five children in the UK, with costs reaching £11 billion last year.

Our latest research finds Britons strongly support the legal entitlement to provision of SEND support: 60 per cent believe support should remain a legal entitlement for all who need it, even if this requires significant government spending. Only 26 per cent think eligibility should be tightened.

WIth the SEND reform whitepaper expected by mid March, changes to the funding could carry significant political risk for the government as 72 per cent of their 2024 voter base believe that the spending should remain a legal requirement, despite the high price tag. Additionally, parents represent another group likely to at the centre of this backlash, as they stand out in their strong support for the funding as an entitlement (7 in 10).

However, this support sits alongside growing concern about overdiagnosis. More than one third of the British public believe children are being diagnosed with SEND when it does not accurately reflect their needs. This view is particularly prevalent among Reform UK (51 per cent) and Conservative (53 per cent) supporters.

We’re pleased to see our findings featured in The Spectator, which explores the political risks surrounding reform of the SEND system in depth. You can read the article here: 

Who counts as a ‘National Treasure’? And is there a minimum age requirement?

Our latest polling for the Rest is Entertainment podcast explores the concept of a ‘National Treasure’. We showed Britons a list of celebrities, and asked whether they considered each of them to be a National Treasure.

It might not come as a surprise to you that David Attenborough tops the list, with more than four in five Britons (82 per cent) considering him a national treasure. A cluster of classic British staples - Judi Dench (68 per cent), Elton John (59 per cent), Paul McCartney (58 per cent) and Joanna Lumley (56 per cent) - follow behind, all seen as national treasures by clear majorities.

One thing you might notice here is the age of these figures. Is there a minimum age for national treasure status?

Across the full list, only seven figures are considered national treasures by a majority of the public. Every single one of them is over the age of 75, ranging from 77-year-old Elton John through to Judi Dench, Mary Berry and Attenborough, all now in their nineties.

A handful of others get close. Stephen Fry, now 68, is the nearest under 70 to majority status, with 48 per cent of Britons saying he qualifies as a national treasure. 50-year-old David Beckham is considered a national treasure by 44 per cent of Britons.

There are a few notable younger standouts. Despite only being in their thirties, more than a third of the public consider Ed Sheeran and Adele to be national treasures.

As always, we look at the  political angle. Who people consider to be National Treasures relates to how they are likely to vote.

Reform UK leads by more than ten points among fans of both Clarkson and JK Rowling - securing 36 per cent of the vote among people who consider Jeremy Clarkson a national treasure, and 35 per cent among those who consider Rowling a national treasure.

At 26 per cent, Conservative support peaks among people who see Jamie Oliver as a national treasure, marking their strongest showing across the public figures and placing them just 4-points from first place behind Labour. Yet fans of Nigella Lawson lean toward Labour.

Labour’s strongest showings come among fans of Stormzy (earning 35 per cent of the vote) and Gary Lineker (33 per cent) - two public figures who are open about their politics. But the party also earns an impressive 34 per cent among Simon Cowell fans.

You can listen to the full podcast here:

As always, thank you for reading! Have a lovely weekend.

All the best,

Luke