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Dear friend,

I hope this finds you well! It’s been a busy week at More in Common, and this email is packed full of new research that we’re excited to share with you, including our latest report. In this newsletter:

• As Reform UK’s conference begins, we’re launching our most in-depth study of Reform’s changing support base:  From protest to power? Published with UK in a Changing Europe, the report looks at who Reform supporters are, the drivers of that support, as well as the potential cracks emerging in its voter base, and the barriers that may stand in Nigel Farage's way as he attempts to enter Downing Street.

• What is life in Britain like for young people in 2025? Last week, we worked with the Sunday Times to carry out a poll of 16 and 17 year olds. We asked about their political views, how they would vote, their concerns for the future, mental health and gender equality.

• As if that’s not enough, we also published our first Scottish voting intention since the General Election. The poll reveals how dramatically Scottish politics has shifted over the past year, and gives us a first glimpse into what the 2026 Holyrood Election could look like.

Is Reform now a mainstream party? And could that be a problem for Nigel Farage?

Today, with UK in a Changing Europe, we’re publishing From protest to power? - our most in-depth look yet at Reform UK’s changing support base.

Fourteen months on from the General Election, and with Reform’s lead in the polls sitting around 10 points, it’s worth exploring what their support looks lkke

Far from being outliers, Reform’s new supporters increasingly resemble the median British member of the public: the gender gap has narrowed, they spend less time online, and their views on many issues are more moderate. They also come from a broader mix of backgrounds. Only 16 per cent of today’s supporters ever voted for UKIP or the Brexit Party in previous elections, and just two in five backed Reform in 2024. The rest have defected mainly from the Conservatives, but also from Labour and, in smaller numbers, from every other party, giving Reform a larger, more ideologically diverse base than before.

This goes beyond demographics and politics; Reform supporters are looking increasingly ‘normal’ in their everyday lives. When we ask about favourite foods, holidays or pastimes, Reform often comes out on top. They lead among staycationers, pub garden enthusiasts, fans of Chinese or fish and chips, and those whose favourite cheese is cheddar. This reflects both their growing vote share and the fact that Reform voters are becoming harder to pin down as the party’s base broadens.

This is, of course, a sign of Reform’s electoral success, and their ability to appeal to sections of the electorate that Farage’s previous parties could never reach. Yet it also poses a challenge for Reform. The party’s new supporters come form a broad range of places, bringing with them far greater ideological diversity. They are united in their concern about migration, and a broad sense that the country is on the wrong tracks. But on many other issues - climate change, Ukraine and the economy - they diverge.

For example, Reform supporters’ views on the economy differ dramatically based on their previous voting history. Supporters who have switched from Labour in the past year are strongly in favour of wealth distribution: two-thirds believe the government should redistribute income from the better-off to the less well-off, compared to just 23 per cent of Conservative-Reform switchers.

Labour-Reform switchers also firmly support the net-zero target, putting them at odds with Reform UK’s policies - and other segments of their support base.

The lens of our Seven Segments also shows how dramatically Reform’s coalition is shifting . In 2024, nearly half of Reform voters belonged to the Dissenting Disruptor segment - a frustrated group that craves transformational change and is often willing to accept chaos, or racial, untested solutions.

Dissenting Disruptors remain Reform’s core base: they have higher approval of Nigel Farage than any other segment, and would overwhelmingly vote for the party if an election was held tomorrow.

The main way that these segments differ from Reform’s core base is in their theory of change. While Dissenting Disruptors want rapid, transformational change in society, Traditional Conservatives and Rooted Patriots prefer slow, incremental reform. They overwhelmingly think the country needs change, but will also value credibility and stability.

This presents a range of challenges that could face Reform UK in coming years. In order to hold together and expand their more diverse coalition, they will need to find a policy agenda that goes beyond migration, and appeals to its supporters’ varying views on the economy, climate and other issues. Additionally, if it hopes to consolidate gains among different segments on the right of British politics, it will need to be willing to ignore some of the instincts of the very online right and to address their concerns about their credibility, perceptions of racism and extremism, and a lack of experience. 

Read my thread on the research here. And read the full report through the link below:

Checking in on Scotland

Yesterday, we released our first Scottish voting intention poll since the General Election. It shows how dramatically Scottish politics has shifted in the past year.

The SNP is leading in Holyrood ahead of 2026 elections, in both Constituency and Regional List voting intention - although the party’s vote share has declined since the 2021 Scottish Election, with Reform breaking through on 16%. In both votes, the SNP is ahead of Labour by more than 15 points.

Meanwhile, our Scottish Westminster voting intention reveals just how dramatically Labour’s fortunes have shifted in Scotland.

For reference, just over a year ago Labour received a historic victory in Scotland in the General Election - coming in first place with 35 per cent of the vote. Their vote share has since halved, and they have fallen into third place with just 17 per cent  of the vote. Meanwhile the SNP’s vote share has barely shifted, up by only one point since the General Election.
Another huge shift is in Reform’s vote share: from just 7 per cent in the Election, they are now polling at 21 per cent in Scotland - pushing Labour into third place.

The Scotland poll is fascinating for two main reasons:

First - Labour’s collapse fuelled by dissatisfaction with the government: a General Election held on today’s vote share would likely see the SNP reverse Labour’s gains, but this is not due to an increase in support for the SNP: in Holyrood, the SNP’s vote share has fallen, and in Westminster it has barely changed. 

This is instead due to deep dissatisfaction with Labour: our poll also found that 56 per cent of Scots believe the Labour Government has been bad for the people of Scotland, including 42 per cent of Labour voters. With the electorate seemingly dissatisfied with both Labour and the SNP, future elections in Scotland could look increasingly fragmented.

Secondly, Reform could be set to break through North of the border. With 16 per cent of the vote in Holyrood, Reform could make some real gains in Scotland in next years’ General Election, especially with the proportional system used to elect Regional List MPs.

This increase in Reform’s vote share reflects a boost in Nigel Farage’s personal approval rating in Scotland. Nigel Farage and John Swinney are the only two politicians whose approval has risen in Scotland this year, whereas Starmer and Badenoch’s approval has dropped by 5 and 6 points respectively. The Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election in May was a test case of Reform’s performance in mobilising voters in Scotland: the party won 26 per cent of the vote - proving the ability to appeal to some Scottish voters.

What is life in Britain like for young people in 2025? 

Last week, we worked with the Sunday Times to carry out a poll of 16 and 17 year olds. We asked about their political views, how they would vote, their concerns for the future, mental health and gender equality.

Read my thread on the politics of young Britons here, and their views on mental health and other issues here. You can also find the two Sunday Times articles here:

Thanks so much for reading! As always, we really enjoy hearing your feedback, so do let us know your thoughts.

All the best,
Luke Tryl

Executive Director