Parliament may have left for recess this week, but the work doesn’t stop for us trying to understand what people think.
In this newsletter:
Vaccine scepticism in Britain: beyond the COVID jab
Trump’s upcoming state visit: What do Britons think?
Concern about immigration reaches an all-time high in our issues tracker
A ‘summer cooling payment’ for pensioners?
To start with: in our launch of Shattered Britain last week, we talked about how a big impetus for creating the new Seven Segments was the effects that the pandemic had on some Britons - lower trust in institutions, more socially atomised, and the massive growth in use of (and reliance on) social media. In our polling this week, we explored another potential effect of the pandemic:
Vaccine scepticism in Britain goes beyond the COVID jab
Vaccine scepticism has taken root among some in the UK, with one in four (29%) telling us that the COVID vaccine did more harm than good, and only half (53%) saying it did more good than harm.
This has affected Britons’ views on other vaccines too: one in ten (11%) now say that the MMR (Measles, mumps and rubella) vaccine for children does more harm than good, and another 8% say their child has not and will not get the vaccine.
A more worrying development is that 16% of parents of children aged up to 4 years old say that their child has not and will not be given the MMR vaccine. It is worth bearing in mind that these are the ages when children are supposed to be given the first vaccine and the follow-up booster; younger parents of younger children are more sceptical than others, and are less likely to give their children the vaccine. Though of course this may change as their children become older.
That said, Britons’ trust in science has not reached lows seen in other countries such as the US. Scientists are still one of the most trusted sources of information in the UK, and the NHS remains one of our most trusted institutions. The direction of travel is worrying, but there is much more that can be built on.
Most Britons think Trump should not address Parliament during his State visit
Ahead of US President Trump’s planned state visit in September, we asked Britons about their views on Trump, and whether he should be allowed to give a speech to Parliament - a privilege given to some Heads of State when making an official visit to London (you may recall France’s Macron addressed Parliament earlier this month during his state visit).
We found that most Britons (54%) say that Trump should not be allowed to speak in Parliament, while just under a third (32%) say he should.
Only those who intend to vote for Reform in the next election say that he should be allowed to speak before Parliament (55% support, 35% oppose). Voters of all other major parties are strongly opposed - Greens and Liberal Democrats stand out in particular, with more than three quarters of their prospective voters saying they think Trump should not be given the opportunity to address Parliament.
One reason why Reform voters stand out among their peers in this regard could be because of their policy priorities: when we asked people whether they agree or disagree with Trump on different issues, immigration was the only issue where a plurality of Britons said they agree with Trump’s views. Britons are unlikely to be aware of the details of Trump’s migration policy and we know measures which contradict the rule of law are unlikely to be popular - but this does speak to a wider desire for UK politicians to get better control over the immigration system.
The NHS is beginning to fall off voters’ radar, while immigration continues to rise
In our ‘big issues’ tracker, ‘levels of immigration’ and ‘asylum seekers crossing the channel’ has cleanly surpassed ‘supporting the NHS’, reaching 48% selecting at least one of those issues, and solidifying as the 2nd biggest issue for Britons after the cost of living (63%).
Meanwhile, ‘supporting the NHS’ is at its lowest level of salience since July 2022, at 35%.
Why might this be? At least in England, NHS performance appears to be slightly better than it was this time last year; per the Nuffield Trust, A&E waiting times are marginally down from May 2024 (though still significantly higher than pre-Covid times). In focus groups we tend to hear more people saying the NHS is getting better.
At the same time, the salience of immigration has increased and in particular tensions around asylum hotels. Voters are more concerned about immigration, and so when asked what they think the three biggest issues facing the country are: small boat crossings, levels of immigration and the cost of living take priority for many, especially among Reform voters.
That said - concerns about the NHS have not completely subsided and this polling may be a ‘calm before the storm’, if the impact of resident doctors’ strikes negatively impacts waiting lists and other signs of NHS performance. As we showed last week, and reaffirmed by YouGov on Monday, these strikes are not popular with the public - particularly when compared to previous doctors’ strikes.
Majority of Britons would support a ‘summer cooling payment’ for pensioners
After a tongue in cheek suggestion that pensioners should be offered a ‘summer cooling payment’. We surveyed the public on whether they would support or oppose a range of benefits offered to pensioners; some real, and some hypothetical.
In the case of the ‘summer cooling allowance’, to help pensioners pay for cooling their homes, we found that this would have majority support among Britons, with only 21% opposing. Notably, younger generations were more likely to be in favour of this benefit than those who are at retirement age.
We tested a number of benefits/allowances for pensioners, and found that not only do existing benefits have overwhelming majority support, but even some extra benefits would be backed by much of the public, such as a ‘technology support payment’.
What was more surprising in these results was that these benefits enjoyed more support from people below pension age than from pensioners themselves. People at and above the pension age of 66 would oppose a TV subscription allowance (52% oppose, 30% support), while a plurality of the public below the pension age would actually support a state-subsidised Netflix for the elderly (41% support, 36% oppose).
It’s worth keeping in mind that these are not concrete policy proposals (or at least not yet), with no details of costs or eligibility, so the public’s views on them would likely change if the government seriously proposed them. Is this just because people like being given free things? Maybe but in general the public are sceptical about what they see as ‘handouts’, so pensioners are clearly an exception - particularly among those who aren’t pensioners themselves, suggestions of inter-generational divides maybe somewhat overblown.
MIC in the media:
12 months on from the Southport attacks, we polled on behalf of The Economist to ask Britons about their views on social cohesion, multiculturalism and the riots. In the past week, The Telegraph and BBC News covered our work on 16-17 year olds being given the right to vote, and The Times used our polling in their coverage of the launch of Jeremy Corbyn’s new left-wing party.
In case you missed it:
We’ll be continuing to release more information about our new Seven Segments over the summer. If you haven’t yet taken the quiz to find out which segment you are in, you can do that here. And this week, I tweeted this thread explaining how they can help explain UK politics at the moment. We’ve loved hearing your thoughts and comments about the segments - do get in touch if you have any more.
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