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Dear friend,

Happy Friday!

In this newsletter:

• Public attitudes across five countries on the war in Ukraine. More in Common’s latest research, drawing on polling across Britain, France, Germany, Poland and the USA, explores how attitudes have shifted, what different countries think of the Witkoff deal, and fears about a wider European war on the horizon.

• How Britons feel after the Budget: have the Chancellor’s announcements last week shifted the dial on the Doom Loop? Our polling nad focus group insights gauge the public’s reaction.

• What your favourite sport tells us about your politics: Our new analysis shows that a key dividing line in politics is…whether you’re a fan of darts.

• In other news: Is Your Party over, or is it just getting started? And what Britons think of juries.

Why Britain stands out on Ukraine

Today, we released a major study across five countries on attitudes toward the war in Ukraine. 

At a critical moment in the peace process, as fraught negotiations continue and a controversial peace deal emerged - we found that support for Ukraine has remained steadfast across Germany, France, Britain, Poland and the United States..

Underpinning public opinion on the war in Ukraine is a shared understanding of the conflict: across all five countries polled, majorities sympathise with Ukraine, view Russia as an aggressor, and believe that Ukraine’s defence matters to their own nations. With the exception of Poland, each of these measures has remained stable over the past nine months since our last international Ukraine polling in March 2025. 

But while there is a strong desire across Europe and the United States to see an end to the bloodshed and suffering, few want a rushed peace that rewards Russia or leaves Ukraine vulnerable. Across all five countries, people tend to reject key elements of Witkoff’s proposed peace deal.

In particular, majorities in France, Britain and Poland - as well as a plurality of Americans and Germans - believe that recognising occupied territory as Russian or reducing Ukraine’s armed forces would be unacceptable conditions for a peace deal. Notably, Britons and Poles are the strongest in their opposition to the Witkoff deal, with clear majorities saying that key elements are unacceptable: 58 per cent of Britons and Poles think it would be unacceptable for Ukraine to reduce its armed forces, alongside 56 per cent of French people, 49 per cent of Germans and 46 per cent of Americans. 62 per cent of Poles and 56 per cent of Britons reject the recognition of occupied regions as Russian, compared to 53 per cent of French people, 48 per cent of Germans and 44 per cent of Americans.

What’s more, majorities of Britons and Americans think these concessions would constitute a Russian victory: 51 per cent of Americans think a reduction in Ukraine’s armed forces or territorial concessions would amount to victory for Russia; nearly two-thirds of Britons (64 per cent) think that recognising occupied regions as Russian would amount to victory for Russia, and 62 per cent say the same about a ban on Ukraine joining NATO.

In part, each of these countries are concerned about the peace deal because they believe the stakes go far beyond Ukraine: many think that a bad deal could reward and embolden Russian aggression and spiral into a wider European war. Majorities in each of the five countries believe that, if Russia succeeds in capturing Ukrainian territory, it will attempt to invade other countries. And there is a wider fear: most Germans (66 per cent), French people (76 per cent), Poles (68 per cent), Britons (68 per cent) and Americans (57 per cent) are worried about the prospect of war in Europe in coming years.

But while this concern - and support for Ukraine - spans across the five countries, Britain stands out. In other countries, voters of different parties are polarised over the war in Ukraine: in Germany, only 20 per cent of AfD voters sympathise with Ukraine, while 24 per cent sympathise with Russia. In the United States, just over half (53 per cent) of Republicans sympathise with Ukraine, compared to 80 per cent of Democrats.

In contrast, strong majorities of every British voter group stand with Ukraine - ranging from 64 per cent among 2024 Reform voters to 83 per cent among Conservative voters. It’s a rare point of consensus, and one that makes Britain unique in its attitudes toward the conflict.

There’s much more detail in the full report, including wider concerns about the US President’s influence on the war and changing attitudes among Trump voters; how views toward NATO are shifting in different countries; and what people want for the future of Europe beyond the war.

Read the full briefing here:

A lesson in expectation management? How the Budget landed with Britons.

After weeks of briefings and leaks, many found the Budget itself underwhelming. In an Aldershot focus group, voters described it as a “damp squib”, “disappointing”, and a bit…“meh”.

Nationally, half of Britons said the Budget was neither better nor worse than they expected. Only 22 per cent felt it was worse than they expected, while 14 per cent said it exceeded their expectations. Even among Reform and Conservative voters, pluralities said it was roughly what they expected.

But while the Government may have avoided the worst of the backlash they would have faced by increasing income tax rates, they have not emerged from Budget Season unscathed. 58 per cent said the Government broke its manifesto promise by freezing income tax bands, including half of Labour’s own 2024 voters. Six in ten expect they will have to cut back on spending, and half think their quality of life will get worse as a result of the Budget.

On the Budget’s central test - easing the cost of living - the public were deeply sceptical. Just 6 per cent think it will help, while nearly two-thirds believe it will make the cost of living worse.

While most Britons might not be following the technical disputes between the OBR and the Treasury, the fallout still carries political risks. It adds to a broader sense of disorder (three in four say this government is at least as chaotic as the last) and deepens doubts about the Government’s honesty on the public finances. Even before the row, most Britons thought the Chancellor had other good options that did not involve tax rises. With the Government’s fiscal decisions now under closer scrutiny, it is more important than ever that ministers tell a compelling story about their plans for the country and deliver visible improvements in public services.

What your favourite sport tells us about your politics

Fun fact: whether or not someone is a fan of Darts is as strong a predictor of voting for Reform UK as having voted Leave in the 2016 EU Referendum. Reform earns 51 per cent of Darts fans, along with 53 per cent of Leave voters.

More broadly, your sport of choice can tell us a lot about how you might vote. Rishi Sunak, Theresa May and John Major were notoriously cricket-loving Prime Ministers - along with their voters: Conservatives are pulling in 24 per cent of the vote among cricket fans, making it the sporting fanbase they are most popular with.

Meanwhile, as Liberal Democrats push into the Conservatives’ Blue Wall, there is a sign that they’re also infringing on the Tories’ favourite sport, winning 18 per cent of cricket fans’ vote.

Keir Starmer often highlights his support for Arsenal, and there may be some merit in doing so: Labour outperform among football fans, winning 28 per cent of their vote compared to 22 per cent overall. The party also leads among rugby league’s traditionally working-class supporters, despite losing voters in Yorkshire and Lancashire. Labour takes 33 per cent of the vote among rugby league fans, their strongest performance in any sport.

And finally, Zack Polanski’s effort to shed the Greens’ traditionally “cuddly” image also seems to have merit. Despite the party’s pacifist roots, it polls highest among UFC/MMA fans at 14 per cent, although this may simply reflect that both the Greens and MMA are especially popular with younger Britons.

In other news...

• Is Your Party over, or just getting started? Following the party’s inaugural conference last weekend, our new polling shows that hypothetical support for Your Party has halved since July, when 8 per cent of voters said they would back a Corbyn/Sultana Party. Today, that figure is just 4%. This slump has been particularly pronounced among younger Britons: in July, 16 per cent of Gen Z Britons said they would vote for Corbyn and Sultana’s new party - tying it with the Green Party. This has now dropped to just 5 per cent, while Zack Polanski’s Green Party has risen by two points to 18 per cent.

• Britons trust juries over judges: As the Government announce the end of trial by jury for crimes with a sentence of less than three years, our polling finds that seven in ten Britons (72 percent) trust juries to deliver the right verdict; only 61 per cent trust judges to do so. This gap widens with Reform voters: Just 38 per cent of current Reform UK voters trust judges to deliver the right verdict, whereas 69 per cent trust juries to do so. One in five Reform voters (19 per cent) say they have no trust at all in judges to deliver the right verdict.

That’s all for this week. Thanks so much for reading - and do let us know what you think!

All the best,

Luke