Britain’s Fragmented Electorate: New MRP Reveals Dramatic Shifts

Dear friend,

Hope this finds you well, and that you're looking forward to the, sadly, normal-length weekend.

In this newsletter, we're sharing the results of our new MRP, which reveals a dramatically transformed political landscape. Is this Britain's most fragmented electorate?

We’d also love to invite you to our annual online pre-election briefing, where we'll share our insights on public priorities, common concerns and what is driving the fragmentation of politics ahead of next week’s local elections.

Our new MRP

Let's start by explaining what an MRP is, and why it's interesting.

‘Multilevel Regression with Post-stratification’ (MRP) uses data from a voting intention poll to model how people will vote based on their demographics, voting behaviour and information about their constituency. These results are then applied to the demographic and electoral makeup of each constituency to make a constituency-level estimate - allowing us to map the results across every parliamentary seat in the country.

While we certainly can't predict an election this far out, an MRP provides a vivid snapshot of how public opinion has shifted at a more granular level over the past year.

A splintered electorate

The model reveals unprecedented levels of political fragmentation. With the Conservatives, Labour and Reform all tied on an implied 24 per cent of the vote.

We know from our focus groups that disillusionment with the status quo, distrust in politics and frustration at the slow pace of change is accelerating the shift of voters away from the traditional political duopoly.

Reform UK, appear to have captured the ‘change mantel’ and would emerge as the largest party with 180 seats - gaining seats in every region of England and in Wales - while Labour and the Conservatives would each win 165 seats.

But looking more deeply the consequences of a fragmented and divided electorate come even further into view: in 285 seats, the winner would secure under a third of the vote, and the model also estimates 233 parliamentary seats would be won with a margin of less than 5 per cent and 101 seats even closer races with margins of less than 2 per cent.

In short, the model points to a UK political system more fragmented than at any time in history - and presents Britain’s first-past-the-post system with a challenge it has not faced before.

Demand for change

What is undoubtedly true is that this Government has not enjoyed the honeymoon period that new Governments typically see after an election win. A combination of public opinion missteps, frustration and the slow pace of change and perhaps most importantly a far higher level of electoral volatility that erodes traditional loyalties mean the public is more restive than in the past. The people we speak to in focus groups want change and they want it quickly.

That frustration translates into an electoral map upended even from just six months ago, with Reform UK building support in what has become known as ‘the Red Wall’ of largely post-industrial areas in the north and midlands of England and the Welsh valleys. Meanwhile, the SNP would regain support in much of Scotland and the central belt.

However, while Labour would lose most seats to Reform UK our national voting intention polling shows the party is losing almost as many votes to other parties on the left. While this is not translating into seat gains for the Liberal Democrats and the Greens, bleeding vote share on their progressive flank is eroding Labour’s margin. In a General Election these ‘progressive defections’ would enable Reform and the Conservatives to win additional seats. This MRP model, estimates there are 68 seats where Labour’s vote loss to the Liberal Democrats and Greens would cause them to lose a seat.

You can find the full results, and explore our interactive maps, here.

But it is also clear from our focus group conversations that much of this shift could reverse if there is a change in the public mood and the Government is able to show that the state can deliver on public priorities such as the cost of living, the NHS, immigration, crime and climate and the environment.

Having repeatedly voted for change, what the public tells us they most want from politicians is to be convinced that they can deliver on their promises and help make their lives easier. Very often we hear in focus groups a frustration that the cost of living crisis has squeezed out ‘all of the fun things’ from people’s lives with many feeling they are just ‘living to work’ and ‘working to live’. That frustration is combined with worries about not being able to rely on public services such as the NHS for support in times of need.

Whoever can convince the public they have a credible vision to reverse that sense of national gloom is likely to be rewarded by the public.