Subscribe Here | Send your thoughts

Dear friend,

Happy Friday! Hope this finds you well. In this week’s newsletter:

• Five things Britons want from the UK’s immigration system. Making sense of Britons’ main priorities on migration.

• Following the Spring Statement, our polling shows that most Britons haven’t noticed that inflation is falling. But there’s a good reason for the public’s economic pessimism.

• Gorton and Denton: A dispatch from the by-election, our in-depth report on what drove last week’s seismic result.

• An invitation to our upcoming event with UK in a Changing Europe: Political Fragmentation and the Future of the Centre in UK Politics

Five things Britons want from the UK’s immigration system

This week, the Home Secretary’s speech on immigration opened up a conversation around what Britain’s immigration system should look like, and what voters actually want to see. Often, this debate features false binaries and misunderstandings of where public opinion actually is on the issue.

Our research has highlighted what Britons expect from our immigration system, and we often break it down to the “5 Cs”: control, compassion, competence, contribution and community.

Control is the public’s non-negotiable starting point; for most, it’s the key test of any migration policy and a prerequisite for the other four expectations. It’s also the main area on which Britons think several consecutive governments have failed: seven in ten Britons (69 per cent) say the government lacks control over our borders.

Across every voter group, large majorities say they are concerned about illegal migration - including 84 per cent of Labour voters - while a smaller but still clear majority are concerned about legal migration levels. When the government’s reforms were first trailed back in November, just 10 per cent of voters said the government was being too harsh on illegal immigration, 19 per cent said it was about right, and 71 per cent said it was too weak - including a majority of those who voted Labour in 2024.

Of course, the most visible symbol of this perceived lack of control is small boats crossing the Channel, which four in five Britons say should be the government’s priority over legal migration. But in focus groups, people also talk about the sheer volume of migration in recent years, the pace of change in some areas, and the pressure they feel it puts on housing and public services.

I think it stems really from just a general lack of control when it comes to the government. When it comes to immigration.  (...)  It doesn't matter which political party we vote for, nothing really changes.
Alisha, legal secretary, Epping Forest

Immigration is a big concern I think at the moment. Just about how many illegal immigrants, and how it's affecting education, the NHS - it’s just, it's quite massive at the moment.
Mary, support worker, Cumbria

But while voters expect control, they also want compassion. Few Britons want to pull up the drawbridge to those who need help. Only one in five voters thought the Homes for Ukraine scheme was the wrong decision, and only 24 per cent believe that we should stop letting in people from war-torn countries; 60 per cent believe we should accept people fleeing war or persecution countries through capped, controlled routes - a view that spans across our seven segments including a narrow majority of Dissenting Disruptors, our most migration sceptic segment that forms Reform UK’s base. 

In fact, anger about small boat crossings partly reflects a sense that the current system does not and cannot prioritise those with the greatest need. When we ask voters whether the priority should be greater enforcement and border control or creating new legal routes, most (54 per cent) choose both.

If we are letting in so many illegal immigrants, how can we be a nation offering to those who need it, or fleeing persecution who really need us. Like the people from Ukraine, we were there, people in my village opened homes and took in Ukrainian people (...) and they all want to go back to their own country,
Sally, hospitality worker, Wrexham

The third expectation is competence. Britons want a system that works smoothly and fairly, both for those seeking asylum and for the wider public. One reason that support for the Rwanda scheme collapsed towards the end of the last government was that voters simply didn’t believe it would work. But the continued failure to tackle crossings has also shifted opinion, and across voter groups the proportion of Britons who question whether scrapping it was the right decision has risen. If the government wants to maintain confidence, it will need to show it has its own workable answer.

When we tested the appeal of Danish style migration reforms back in November which have been the inspiration for the Governments policy, we found broad support for many of the key policies. Interestingly, this support spanned across politics - including Labour voters, and many of the policies were even relatively popular among Green voters. While we don’t know how the public might respond in practice, it’s clear that perceptions of ‘common sense’ solutions are popular across politics.

The public also value contribution. Voters tend to see immigration as bringing both costs and benefits in roughly equal measure, and ensuring that the public see the benefits and contribution migrations make matters. In focus groups, even migration-sceptic participants will praise those  who come to Britain to work in sectors like the NHS. Britons want to see a system that rewards these contributions.

Contribution also has a social dimension. Around three quarters of voters say Britain should do more to encourage integration, and most believe that integration is everyone’s responsibility, not just that of minority communities. For three in five Britons, integration goes beyond just following the UK’s laws and includes embracing  Britain’s values and cultural norms. We know from focus groups that this is usually an inclusive expectation that allows space for different traditions and religions, but which also wants us to be bound together by more than living in the same country following the same laws.

Finally, there’s community. One reason the asylum hotel policy has proved so unpopular is that it often feels imposed on local areas without consultation. People often feel decisions have been made by the central government with little regard for local concerns, sometimes removing buildings that had been important community assets, with no clear pathway to integration for those arriving. Approaches such as community sponsorship schemes, which involve local communities directly in supporting refugees, tend to command greater support because they give communities a sense of ownership and create clearer routes to integration.

“You've got absolutely no idea who's there (...) I mean to put 'em in hotels just seems crazy, especially in the middle of a community.” 

Julian, retired, Epping Forest

"I don't think they think about the communities and the people that live there. (...) So I do think there is a lot of concern from local residents."

 Gabby, teacher, Epping Forest

Voters want a system that is controlled but compassionate, competent in practice, rewards contribution and works with communities rather than imposing decisions on them. And crucially, while there’s widespread disagreement on immigration in Westmisnter, these main principles are not polarised: most Reform voters want to continue accepting refugees through capped controlled routes, and most Labour voters want the government to be tougher on Channel crossings. If the Governments reforms meet  these five expectations it will likely go a long way to meeting the public’s tests for restoring faith in government.

Why Britons haven’t noticed inflation falling

Earlier this week the Chancellor used the Spring Statement to argue that the economy is beginning to turn a corner. Inflation has fallen, interest rates were cut in December, and government borrowing is forecasted to be a bit lower than expected.

But our polling suggests that most Britons aren’t noticing those improvements.

When we ask Britons how the economy has changed in recent months, only 19 per cent say inflation has decreased. Around half (51 per cent) believe inflation is still rising, while around a quarter think it has stayed the same. Awareness of falling interest rates and government borrowing are also quite low. The one economic change that Britons have noticed is rising unemployment, which two-thirds of Britons (67 per cent) are aware of.

This puts the government in a tricky situation, and means that reeling off positive economic statistics alone isn’t going to be enough to shift the public’s negative mood and could come across as tin eared and risk making the same mistakes as the Biden administration.

But there’s a very good reason for the public’s economic pessimism: everyday experiences of the cost of living crisis still dominate how people judge the economy, and these experiences often haven’t improved. As recently as January, we found that half of Britons (51 per cent) say they are cutting back on luxuries, 46 per cent are going out less to restaurants, pubs and the cinema, 36 per cent have reduced their heating or electricity use, and 17 per cent say they have skipped meals in recent months to cope with the cost of living crisis. And this week, we found that 59 per cent of Britons are unsure if the crisis will ever end - the highest since we began tracking in 2022.

While the government may want to celebrate signs of economic improvement, it will need to take care not to appear blind to the fact that, for many, the economy feels as broken as ever.

Gorton and Denton: A dispatch from the by-election

Speaking of the cost of living crisis, this week Andy Burnham quoted our research in his speech following the by-election result. He described our finding that three in five Britons worry the cost of living crisis will never end as “code red for Westminster politics”.

In our report on the Gorton and Denton by-election that we published this week - based on focus groups conducted on the day the result was announced with Green, Labour and Reform voters - we found that the cost of living crisis was one of the key drivers of the dissatisfaction that defined the election.

We just don't seem to be any further forward from when the Conservatives were in, no one feels any better off. And as people have said earlier, the cost of living crisis is probably one of the biggest things for everybody, and we're all no different, we're no better off (...) one of the big things is the housing crisis that we've got. There's not enough houses to go around. There's a lot of people homeless. People are paying extortion at rents in private houses with private landlords. I think it's a big crisis that needs tackling

Sarah, Prison Officer, voted Green

I don't think they've handled the economy very well. Every day you go shopping, it's just the same amount of money buys less for you. Let's say four years ago, I didn't bother going to the yellow sticker side of things, but now I find myself in the last one, two years, I go to the yellow stickers first and then fill up, which wasn't something I felt, not that I was better than others, but I felt perhaps other people, because since I'm working, other people needed that. But now I'm like, nope, I'm going there. It's all man for himself kind of thing.

Hafsa, HR Officer, voted Labour

And this concern and anger about the cost of living fed into a broader sense that the political mainstream is incapable of delivering - and that it might be worth “trying something new”, even if this is something untested.

I didn't vote Green. I did vote Reform. I mean, none of them are winners, let's be honest. They've all got their drawbacks. Labour have just made an absolute arse of it. The Tories have made an arse of it. I thought I would try something new.

Jack, Personal Trainer, voted Reform

I think I feel a bit disillusioned with Labour altogether. I’m done with Labour for now. I need something new.

Esther, Assessment Officer, voted Green

You can read the full report here:

Invitation: Political Fragmentation and the Future of the Centre in UK Politics - held in partnership with UK in a Changing Europe.

Our political system is undergoing a period of significant fragmentation. Long-standing party loyalties have weakened, trust in institutions has declined, and new political divides now cut across traditional left - right lines. This panel will examine what these changes mean for the political centre and for effective policymaking. Speakers will explore whether the centre can still act as a stabilising force - and what fragmentation means for representation, consensus-building and governance in the UK. At this session, we will be joined by Professor Jane Green from Oxford University, Sophie Stowers from More in Common and Anand Menon from UK in a Changing Europe. Additional speakers will be announced soon.

This event will take place on Thursday, 19 March from 18:30 to 20:30 at the Rennie Room, One George Street, 1 Great George Street, Westminster, London SW1P 3AA.

If you’d like to attend, please RSVP through the link below:

Thank you for reading - and please do let us know what you think.

All the best,

Luke