The fallout from the Mandelson saga, and its implications both for the future of this government, and the lasting impact on trust and faith in democracy.
An update on assisted dying, and what Britons want to see from the Parliamentary process.
What might the next Welsh government look like? Sharing our first Welsh voting intention of 2026, and seat projections for the upcoming Senedd election.
Two invitations to upcoming events:
Political Fragmentation and the Future of the Centre in UK Politics - held in partnership with UK in a Changing Europe.
Webinar: Building in my backyard? Tackling opposition to infrastructure and housing
The fallout from the Mandelson saga
The revelations from the Epstein files are having a further corrosive effect on trust in government and politics, In our weekly poll, we ask the British public to write in their own words what stories they have heard the most about. This week, two names dominated: Mandelson and Epstein.
The most immediate consequences are obviously for the Prime Minister and the Government. Already dissatisfied, much of the public is now angry the appointment was ever made and wants to see the Prime Minister take responsibility for the appointment. Just 21 per cent think his apology last week went far enough, and Britons are five times more likely to say Starmer (47 per cent) bears ultimate responsibility than to blame Morgan McSweeney (9 per cent).
Labour’s own voters seem increasingly unhappy and impatient for a change of direction: 42 per cent of those who backed Labour in the 2024 General Election now say that it would be a good thing for the country if we had a change of Prime Minister this year.
But for the public, this goes far beyond one Prime Minister, party or government. For many voters, the Mandelson saga reinforces their worst instincts about politicians and a system which does not seem to have worked for them for years.
More than four in five Britons say it is ‘probably’ or ‘definitely true’ that elites protect other wealthy or powerful people from being held to account (82 per cent), and follow a different set of rules to the rest of us (81 per cent). Seven in ten (69 per cent) say it’s likely that people in power do not take crimes against ordinary people seriously.
Perhaps most concerning, half of the British public believe it is probably or definitely true that there is a secret group of people who are responsible for making all major world decisions - such as going to war. Only 16 per cent of Britons are willing to rule out this theory.
Seeing years of scandal from consecutive governments has convinced some voters that politics itself is broken. Only a third (36 per cent) of Britons believe that politicians try to do what is best for the country, while two-thirds (64 per cent) believe that they only do what they think is best for themselves.
Green and Reform voters are the most pessimistic: Three-quarters (75 per cent) of Green and Reform voters say that politicians only do what they think is best for themselves.
For some, this translates into a sense that democracy is broken, and voting is futile. 53 per cent lean toward the view that voting does not matter because we get the same kinds of politicians in charge.
This sense of futility and continuity is one of the key factors driving voters away from the political status quo, making them increasingly willing to “roll the dice” on something new like Reform UK.
An update on assisted dying
With the Terminally Ill Adults Bill running out of time in the House of Lords, what do Britons want to see from the parliamentary process?
In November 2024, More in Common published Proceeding with Caution, which found that most Britons support a change in the law on assisted dying, but that this support is contingent on strong safeguards and rigorous parliamentary scrutiny.
But while the public want legislation to be properly scrutinised, few want to see it fail simply due to running out of time in the parliamentary process. More than half of Britons (52 per cent) say it would be a bad outcome if the bill ran out of time, compared with just 20 per cent who see this as a good outcome. Among those who support legalising assisted dying, this rises to 70 per cent.
Even among opponents, there is unease about a process-led failure. More than a quarter (27 per cent) of those who oppose legalisation say it would be a bad outcome if the bill fell due to time constraints, although a majority (54 per cent) would welcome this outcome.
The wider risk here is not that Britons want to see the bill pushed through parliament regardless, but rather that it could undermine their confidence in Britain’s upper house if the peers are seen to be acting in bad faith. 44 per cent of Britons believe that the Lords are deliberately delaying the bill out of opposition, compared to 36 per cent who believe they are doing so out of genuine concern.
Additionally, almost half of Britons now believe that - should the bill run out of time in the Lords - it should be reintroduced and only have to pass through the Commons. If this takes place, it’s possible that the bill would miss out on the Lords’ scrutiny that Britons want to see.
What might the next Welsh government look like?
Today, we’ve released our first Senedd voting intention of 2026. We found Reform holding a 7-point lead over Plaid Cymru, while Labour’s support in the Senedd has halved since 2021. This would mark the end of Labour’s dominance in Welsh politics - by far their worst result since devolution.
But what’s really striking about these results is their implications for what the next government in Wales might look like.
Projecting the poll into seats, Reform UK would likely emerge as the largest party in the Senedd, with 36 seats to Plaid’s 26, with Labour in third place with 21 seats. Meanwhile, the Greens would be set to win their first ever seat in the Senedd.
And what does this mean for forming a government?
We could see the first non-Labour First Minister since devolution, with Plaid Cymru leading a coalition government. On these numbers, Labour and Plaid Cymru would be unable to form a government between the two of them, with a combined total of 47 seats - two short of the 49 needed for a majority. Plaid Cymru would therefore need to bring in Members from the Liberal Democrats or the Greens in order to command a majority and form a government.
While there’s still a lot of uncertainty at this stage, there’s already no doubt that the 2026 Senedd Election is going to be a huge realignment in Welsh politics.
Join us at two upcoming events:
Political Fragmentation and the Future of the Centre in UK Politics - held in partnership with UK in a Changing Europe.
This event will take place on Tuesday, 3 March from 11:00 to 13:00 (panel followed by lunch) at the Rennie Room, One George Street, 1 Great George Street, Westminster, London SW1P 3AA.
Our political system is undergoing a period of significant fragmentation. Long-standing party loyalties have weakened, trust in institutions has declined, and new political divides now cut across traditional left - right lines. This panel will examine what these changes mean for the political centre and for effective policymaking. Speakers will explore whether the centre can still act as a stabilising force - and what fragmentation means for representation, consensus-building and governance in the UK. At this session, we will be joined by me (Luke Tryl) and Anand Menon, Director at UK in a Changing Europe and Lucy Fisher, Whitehall Editor at the Financial Times. Additional speakers will be announced soon.
Webinar: Building in my backyard? Tackling opposition to infrastructure and housing
Thursday 26 February, 12:00 - 13:00
Local resistance is often one of the strongest barriers to constructing new infrastructure and homes. What can developers and policymakers do to minimise local opposition?
In this webinar, we’ll examine how people living near proposed infrastructure and housing projects form their views and why consultation processes often fail to build trust. We will also consider how public engagement and community benefit schemes should be designed to temper opposition and what it might take to shift communities from anger and resistance to reluctant acceptance.
Hosted by our energy and planning lead, Chris Annous, the webinar will draw in particular on focus group research exploring these questions among communities affected by the construction of electricity pylons along Britain’s East Coast.
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