How will anti-incumbency play out in Scotland? Looking at our latest polling and focus groups in Scotland.
Not just an SW1 story: Our polling suggests that few Britons think the press has spent too much time on the Mandelson scandal.
The never-ending cost of living crisis: Despite a fall in inflation, the cost of living remains front of mind for seven in ten Britons.
AI and the Segments: We got some of the biggest AI models to take our Seven Segments quiz. Why do they lean left?
Join us at Plaid Cymru spring party conference, where we’ll be hosting a panel event to explore how Welsh politics is about to change.
How will anti-incumbency play out in Scotland?
This week we released our latest voting intention in Scotland, with the Scottish National Party leading in both the constituency and regional list votes, while Scottish Labour and Reform UK are jostling for second place.
Using this data, we modelled how the results would translate into seats at Scottish Parliament if a Holyrood election were held tomorrow.
The SNP could come within touching distance of an outright majority. Our modelling suggests the SNP would win 64 seats, just one short of the 65 needed to govern alone.
Yet this SNP victory wouldn’t be driven by enthusiasm for the party alone: our latest approval figures show that the SNP’s net approval rating is -19, and the First Minister’s rating is -16. Additionally, the SNP’s support has dropped significantly since 2021 in both the regional and constituency votes.
So what’s behind this possible SNP victory?
There are a few factors at play here: firstly, the SNP benefits from electoral fragmentation. While the party has lost support from voters on both sides of the independence debate since 2021, it continues to lead by a huge margin among pro-independence Scots. Meanwhile, the anti-independence vote is split four-ways.
This fragmentation gives the SNP a significant boost in Holyrood, where more than half of the seats are elected by first-past-the-post. On our current numbers, roughly 30 of the 73 first-past-the-post constituencies would be won with less than 35 per cent of the vote, and many would be decided by margins of under 5 per cent.
The second factor is, strangely, anti-incumbency: more than seven in ten Scots (73 per cent) believe that it’s “time for change” in Scotland; only among SNP voters do a narrow majority believe that Scotland should “stick to the plan”. But while in the 2024 General Election, Labour was able to win big in Scotland by filling the position as the ‘change’ party, disillusionment with Labour in Westminster is now also a driving force in Scottish politics. While John Swinney’s net approval rating of -16 is unenviable, it’s much higher than Keir Starmer’s -46 among Scottish voters.
This double-anti-incumbency is something we heard in our focus groups in Scotland last weekend, with voters expressing fatigue with the SNP government in Holyrood, and disappointment with the Labour government in Westminster.
“The SNP how many years in power (...) what have they actually done for the country?” Alex, shop manager
“I thought he was going to be great. Honest Keir Starmer - I thought he was going to be fantastic. And he is weak. He flip-flopped from one thing to another and just doesn't make decisions or anything. As bad as Boris Johnson was, he got things done.” Sandra, Retired
In this context, could Reform UK emerge as the party of change for Scotland? Reform is the only party that Scots tend to say represents change: the SNP, Labour and the Conservatives all represent ‘more of the same’ to a majority of Scots.
“I think people want the UK to be different so okay, we've tried Conservative, tried Labour, where do we go next and can they make things different? Immigration jobs, NHS, can they change anything?” Marianne, Primary Support Assistant
In this anti-incumbent context, we could see the possibility of Reform UK breaking through North of the border for the first time. Our latest polling sees Reform jostling Labour for second place in Scotland, and an election held tomorrow could even see the party become the official opposition in Holyrood.
Much like the 2024 General Election, these May elections are shaping up to be another vote for change. As we explore in Shattered Britain, one of the key faultlines in our politics today is not whether voters want change, but how far and how fast they think it should go. While some are still looking for steady, incremental progress, a growing share now favour more fundamental, disruptive change. If mainstream parties across Scotland, Wales and England hope to win back trust, there could be a premium in showing that they don’t simply represent ‘more of the same’.
The Mandelson Scandal: not just an SW1 story
While some have complained that the media have focused too much on the Mandelson scandal - and the consequences for the Prime Minister - the public as a whole tend to disagree.
Just a quarter of Britons say the media has spent too much time covering the Mandelson scandal, with half saying the press has devoted the right amount of attention and 15 per cent saying it has received too little coverage. Across every voter group, people are more likely to say the story has had the right amount of coverage - or not enough - than to feel it has been overblown.
There is also little sense that the Prime Minister has been treated unfairly. Only 13 per cent of Britons think the media has been too harsh on the Prime Minister, compared to 41 per cent who say coverage has been fair and 35 per cent who believe it has been too lenient. Even among Labour’s 2024 voters, only 26 per cent say the press has been too harsh.
The idea that this is simply a ‘Westminster bubble’ story just doesn’t seem to resonate with the wider public. As we discussed in last week’s newsletter, this story has cut through across the country and - for some voters - is likely to have a lasting impact that goes beyond one party or Government.
The never-ending cost of living crisis
This week, the ONS published data showing that inflation fell to 3 per cent in January. Yet in the same week, our big issues tracker showed that 70 per cent of Britons think the cost of living is one of the biggest issues facing the country – the highest level since the General Election.
With the Government trying to refocus on the cost of living and emphasise the steps it is taking to ease pressure on households, it is worth looking at how voters think about the issue. The cost of living has consistently ranked as the top issue facing the country since 2022, and comes up within the first five minutes of almost every focus group. Younger Britons tend to worry about how they’ll save money for a house, while older Britons describe a sense that retirement feels further away.
So while falling inflation - and the prospect of interest rate cuts - may be celebrated in Westminster, public opinion is unlikely to shift until people begin to notice the difference in their weekly shop and energy bills.
“I was going to say from a student’s side, obviously I would love to buy a house one day and things like that. It just doesn't seem as realistic anymore to be able to put the money aside, do the whole process of getting at your own house just because it is so expensive now and you can't really afford to put the money aside. You need it for your daily shops and things like that. “
Tayla, student, Runcorn
“To buy a house is near impossible because I make a decent wage and I still find it so hard to get money, to get 14 grand, 20 grand for the deposit for the house. I think it's really hard , with my car insurance and stuff, at the end of the month.” Luke, car salesman, Greenock
“The way we're living now, it's ridiculous. I'm getting up at my age still at half past four in the morning, going to work. I've got a mortgage and stuff on my own, but I don't live now. I just survive. That's how I feel. And I think, I know it sounds awful, but people are coming in where I work and they don't work and they're better off than me. So I think this is just not life anymore. So I think we do need a change.” Vicky, Supermarket Assistant, Runcorn
“The cost of living is going up and I think we don't challenge it enough. I think we just pretty much accept it.” Urfan, team manager, Peterborough
“You go into a supermarket one week, it's a pound, next week it's one pound 30 the next week, one pound 50. I mean it's exactly the same thing. They just think everybody just seems to be putting prices up and nothing seems to be going down at all.” Julia, admin assistant, Essex
AI and the Segments
At More in Common, we segment the British public by their social attitudes - the instincts people bring to politics, culture, and everyday life - and group them into The Seven Segments of Britain. So we did the obvious thing: we gave our quiz to the big AI models (the free versions at least).
And they all landed solidly on the left.
Both ChatGPT and Gemini were Progressive Activists (our most left-leaning and most politically engaged segment).
Claude, Grok and Deepseek all came out as Incrementalist Left (our segment who hold progressive views on the economy and social issues, but who prefer gradual change over the more radical change favoured by Progressive Activists).
Together these groups account for only a third of the British public. So why are these AI models seemingly so unrepresentative? The answer it seems lies less in political bias and more in a safety first approach.
Read our full blog below to find out how social desirability bias shapes how AI describes the world, and what these models’ specific answers tell us about them. You can also take the Seven Segments quiz here.
Join us for More in Common’s flagship deep dive into the state of public opinion in Wales, exploring growing voter disillusionment with traditional parties, the rise of Reform, and wider political shifts. Featuring analysis from our team, as well as senior politicians and journalists, this panel will examine whether Plaid can overturn Labour’s long dominance of Welsh politics to become the largest party in the Senedd for the first time.
Webinar: Building in my backyard? Tackling opposition to infrastructure and housing
Thursday 26 February, 12:00 - 13:00
Local resistance is often one of the strongest barriers to constructing new infrastructure and homes. What can developers and policymakers do to minimise local opposition?
In this webinar, we’ll examine how people living near proposed infrastructure and housing projects form their views and why consultation processes often fail to build trust. We will also consider how public engagement and community benefit schemes should be designed to temper opposition and what it might take to shift communities from anger and resistance to reluctant acceptance.
Hosted by our energy and planning lead, Chris Annous, the webinar will draw in particular on focus group research exploring these questions among communities affected by the construction of electricity pylons along Britain’s East Coast.
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