Subscribe Here | Send your thoughts

Dear Friend,

I hope this finds you well. In this week’s newsletter:

• The impact of the war in Iran on Britain: how the conflict is shaping attitudes and everyday life in the UK.
• The search for a different Prime Minister: Britons are deeply dissatisfied with the country's leadership, but simply “not being Keir Starmer” likely won't be enough for the next Prime Minister to rebuild trust.
• Introducing the Opinion Brief podcast!

How has the war in Iran affected public opinion and everyday life in Britain?

With a fragile two-week ceasefire announced on Tuesday, our latest research takes stock of how the war in Iran has affected attitudes and daily life in Britain.

Perhaps the most clear impact on Britain is on our relationship with the United States: our polling this week shows that just two in five Britons (38 per cent) consider America an ally - the lowest we’ve recorded since President Trump’s return to the White House last January.

And confidence in the United States as a reliable NATO ally has fallen sharply. Only 40 per cent of Britons now believe it is likely that the US would assist another NATO country if it were attacked. Within that, just 12 per cent say this is “very likely”, and only 4 per cent are certain the US would honour its Article 5 commitments.

This scepticism has hardened since last summer. Since July 2025, the proportion who believe the US would stand by Article 5 has fallen by 10 points, from 50 per cent to 40 per cent. Over the same period, those who think it is unlikely the US would step in has risen by 8 points, from 32 per cent to 40 per cent - a net drop of 18 points in confidence.

In our focus group in Birmingham Yardley last week, it was clear that a sense we cannot depend upon our closest and most powerful ally is fuelling many Britons’ sense of international insecurity. This is reinforced by a belief that Britain is ill-prepared for the prospect of war.

While the fighting has paused for now, there’s an open question around how long it will take to restore Britons’ faith in the United States.

“You can’t just go around invading other countries just because you want to. That’s actually ridiculous. That’s actually medieval.”
Dan, tree surgeon

“I don’t feel like us as a UK are built for war. We’re not like Russia or China where they’ve made loads of preparations.”
Bob, engineering manager

The war in Iran is also changing day-to-day behaviour in Britain. A majority of the public say they have made some kind of lifestyle change in response to the conflict, with only 45 per cent saying they have not taken any action. For many, this has meant tightening their finances or cutting back on energy use.

Around one in five Britons say they are reducing energy use at home (21 per cent), driving less (20 per cent), or cutting back on non-essential spending (19 per cent), while 17 per cent say they are trying to save more money more generally. Nearly one in ten have gone further: eight per cent say they have cancelled holidays, and the same share say they began stockpiling food and essentials.

These impacts are not felt equally. Among higher earners, the response is more likely to involve scaling back travel plans: 31 per cent of those earning more than £100,000 a year have changed travel plans, and 23 per cent have actually cancelled a holiday, more than three times the rate among those on around the national median income (seven per cent).

By contrast, lower-income households are more likely to be cutting back on essentials. They are the most likely to reduce non-essential spending, cut back on heating, or switch to cheaper brands and supermarkets, with 26 per cent saying they have reduced energy use at home compared to a national average of 21 per cent. 

Back in Birmingham, we heard from voters who felt fearful about the rising cost of petrol and energy. Perhaps even more long-lasting - and more politically dangerous for Labour - is the sense that the Government is unwilling or unable to insulate the public from these impacts.

“I’ve always voted Labour in my life. But I’ve got a different view now, to be honest … and I don’t see where they are helping the people who are in need. I go back to when they were going after the pensioners, who have done their time and yet they treated us in that way.”

Brenda, retired church warden

“It’s affecting us in some parts, like in petrol and stuff, and I just feel like we don’t need to get involved.”

Taz, student

You can read all about the polling on the impacts of the war in Iran in the Daily Mail here. And the Guardian has a great writeup of our Birmingham focus group here.

Britain's search for a Prime Minister 

Even in a period of wider anti-politics sentiment, Keir Starmer is remarkably unpopular. Just 19 per cent of Britons think he is doing a good job, while 61 per cent think he is doing a bad job, giving him a net approval rating of minus 42, 26 points lower than any other party leader. This leaves him roughly as popular as Rishi Sunak when the Conservatives lost the election.

But while the topic of leadership challenge has recurred throughout the past year, our research shows that simply “not being Keir Starmer” won’t be enough for a potential next leader to restore the public’s trust.

Public dissatisfaction is not confined to the Prime Minister. Voters are not convinced that any alternative in the Labour Party or beyond would meaningfully improve the situation. Across each of the figures we tested, only a minority of Britons think the country would be better off under a different leader. 

Nigel Farage is the most polarising leader tested. While 27 per cent think he would make the country better off than it is now (higher than any other leader) 43 per cent think he would make things worse (also higher than any other leader). 

Andy Burnham is the most popular Labour Party figure of those tested, just over a fifth of Britons (22 per cent) think he would improve things and just under a fifth (18 per cent) think he would make things worse.

The polling also suggests that many voters are giving Kemi Badenoch consideration as an alternative PM: 21 per cent believe Badenoch would make things better - higher than Polanski or any Labour figure other than Burnham.

So what leadership qualities are Britons looking for in their next PM?

We asked about how a range of qualities apply to different political figures.

Andy Burnham tested net positively on every characteristic measured, and came out most strongly as honest, a leader, strong and as someone who respects the rules. While 10 per cent described him as corrupt, 42 per cent described him as honest.

But some of Andy Burnham’s biggest strengths are also shared by Kemi Badenoch. She also performs most strongly on measures of honesty (44 per cent), being a leader (45 per cent) and respecting the rules (38 per cent).  Particularly on honesty and caring about the country, she outperforms Farage.

Nigel Farage was the only politician tested who overtakes Burnham’s popularity on some measures. While 40 per cent describe Burnham as a leader (rather than a follower), 58 per cent say the same about Farage. People generally think that Nigel Farage wants to change things faster than Andy Burnham does - while 63 per cent think Farage wants things to change quickly, 32 per cent say the same about Andy Burnham. 

So while the Prime Minister's popularity is remarkably low, it's clear that not just any replacement will be enough to restore the public's trust. Britons think the problem applies to many of our politicians - and whoever seeks to replace Starmer will have to offer a convincing vision of how they will make a better Britain. 

Read the great writeup of the findings in last week’s Sunday Times here.

Introducing the Opinion Brief Podcast 

For a while now, we've wanted to make a podcast that's not just about politics, but about people and the public. That's why we're starting the Opinion Brief Podcast! 

Published every Thursday morning in time for the commute, The Opinion Brief offers a sharp, accessible briefing on the state of public opinion and what it means for navigating the political and policy debates of the day.

The podcast will tackle some of the biggest questions facing British politics, including:

• How parties’ voter bases are changing, and what challenges face insurgent parties like the Greens and Reform as they rise in the polls.
• What Britons think about key issues of the day, such as migration, US-UK relations, energy, the cost of living, and public services.
• What national pride looks like in an era of polarisation and what issues still bind Britons together. 
• What might happen in elections this May across Scotland, Wales and England?

We'd love for you to tune in! Follow the Opinion Brief on X:

And you can find our first episode next Thursday morning here: 

That’s all for this week - thank you for reading! And as always, let us know what you think.

All the best,

Luke