Hope this finds you well. In this week’s newsletter:
Is Britain choosing a side? Where the public stand on the war in Iran - and how and where the conflict divides the public.
Britons and Secularism: Our latest report examines what the public wants the relationship between Church and State to look like.
The legacy of the pandemic: Six years on from the UK’s first lockdown, half of Gen Z say their mental health is worse today as a result of the pandemic, and many people say their trust in politics never fully recovered.
Webinar Invitation - Appetite for change: What do Britons want from their food system?
Is Britain choosing a side in Iran?
As the war in Iran continues, how does the British public view the different sides? Our polling this week is striking: only 19 per cent say they sympathise with the US and Israel, while 13 per cent sympathise with Iran. Most people are not picking a side, with 43 per cent sympathising with neither side, 11 per cent saying both equally, and 15 per cent who do not know.
Britons’ reluctance to pick a side may not be surprising, but the fact that only one in five side with our traditional closest ally - and nearly as many sympathise with Iran - points to how far confidence in the US relationship has fallen. For most, this lack of support for the US appears to be driven less by sympathy for Iran and more by scepticism about American motives. Only 13 per cent think the US entered the war to help the Iranian people, while 69 per cent say it did so out of self-interest.
However, there are some clear voter splits here. 44 per cent of Reform voters back the US and Israel, compared with 28 per cent of Conservatives, 16 per cent of Labour voters and just 4 per cent of Greens. Green voters are the clear outlier: 38 per cent sympathise with Iran, more than twice as high as any other voter group.
Meanwhile, views of Trump in Britain have fallen further still. Since January, the share of Britons with a negative view of the US President has risen from 61 per cent to 67 per cent, while the proportion who hold a positive view has fallen from 21 per cent to 16 per cent.
The biggest shift is among Reform voters. Trump’s net favourability among current Reform supporters has fallen from +13 to -7, a larger drop than among any other voter group.
We have spoken in previous newsletters about how some Reform supporters and considerers feel apprehensive about the party’s ties to the US President. As the war drags on and Britons’ perceptions of the US erode, could Nigel Farage’s “Trump problem” become even more salient?
Despite Trump’s declining approval, few Britons want to see a break in relations with the US. With King Charles set to visit next month, the public lean towards the view that the visit should go ahead. Overall, 47 per cent say it should happen, compared with 38 per cent who say it should not.
Majorities of voters across the three largest parties support the visit. Six in ten Conservatives (61 per cent), 55 per cent of Labour voters and 67 per cent of Reform voters say it should go ahead.
Green voters are the only group clearly opposed, with 64 per cent saying it should not happen and 26 per cent in favour. Among Liberal Democrats, despite Ed Davey’s call for the visit to be cancelled, opinion is more evenly split, with 48 per cent in favour and 43 per cent opposed. So while Trump’s approval may be falling, most Britons still distinguish between the President and the broader relationship.
Britons and secularism
Several stories in recent weeks have reignited debate about the role of religion in public life and the relationship between Church and State: discourse around public prayer, the ongoing debate about bishops in the House of Lords, and this week’s enthronement of the first female Archbishop of Canterbury. Our latest report explores some of these issues in depth.
To start with, it’s worth making clear that most people aren’t worrying about religion day to day or faith in general; Britons see a mix of good and bad when it comes to religion - with the largest group saying it is neither a force for good nor for bad.
Yet when prompted about specific Church of England privileges, many feel that reform is needed. Nearly two-thirds of Britons (63 per cent) say the Church should not have the privilege of bishops sitting in the House of Lords. Six in ten (61 per cent) oppose state-funded Church of England-controlled schools, and 55 per cent say Church of England prayers should not be said before parliamentary sittings.
“So we tend to hang on to traditions, but maybe that needs to be looked at. I'm not sure how I feel about it. We need to be open to more leaders of faith, maybe a faith community, rather than Church of England dominated.” Debbie, Christian, London
“Bishops in the House of Lords is an anachronism that probably is overdue to be changed.”
Len, Christian, Southend-on-Sea
More broadly, around third of Britons believe religion plays too much of a role in politics - although 25 per cent say it plays about the right amount of a role, and 15 per cent say it plays too little a role. Interestingly, the sense that religion is too prominent rises to nearly half (48 per cent) among Reform voters, more than any other group.
“I don't understand why politics gets brought into religion. If you go to chapel or church or whatever, that's your faith, nobody else's, it's your choice. So what is got to do with anyone else? I don't understand. I'm not religious but I know people are and that's their choice.”
Graham, non-religious, Glasgow
Meanwhile, Britons want to see that shared civic values - such as equality and the rule of law - take precedence over entirely unrestricted religious freedom. Britons hold a strong stance against religious practices that are perceived to conflict with liberal values or impinge on the rights of others, such as those regarding gender equality and animal welfare. A large majority of the public opposes the use of religious courts such as sharia courts in the UK. Similarly, there is opposition to practices such as non-stun slaughter and the wearing of face veils in public
A majority of Britons believe in the fundamental right to criticise religion, even as they report feeling it difficult to do so themselves. Fifty-five per cent of the public think it should be legal to criticise religion even if it causes offence. Interestingly, while some free speech issues can feel polarised along a left-right axis, this point is not: left-leaning Progressive Activists align with Traditional Conservatives and populist right Dissenting Disruptors in their above-average belief in the importance of being able to criticise religion.
However, many people express discomfort when actually doing so. One-third of Britons feel that they can rarely, or even never, say how they feel about religion, reflecting a broader concern among many in Britain that free speech is being eroded. This is a concern that risks undermining trust between religious and non-religious groups.
“I think everything should be able to be debated and discussed, not just you can't just say something is complete and utter rubbish. You have to be able to discuss that and debate it and back it up and be respectful in the process. So this is called debate and discussion, not I'm just going to throw a load of rubbish at somebody because that's not respectful and I think it's a very fine line”. Gina, non-religious, Norwich
“I think it's very important to be able to criticise, but it has to be constructive criticism with an end goal, not with a goal to become violent or to burn each other's books. It's about learning. And I think through that you accept other people's faith and their right to believe or to not believe”.
Amtal, Muslim, London
“I think it's important that society protects religious freedom, diversity and beliefs and what have you. Don't be critical, be curious, ask questions, inquire, find out”. Debbie, Christian, London
But while Britons may want to see reform in the relationship between religion and our institutions, feel uncomfortable about certain religious practices and want greater freedom to speak openly about religion, most Britons still recognise the personal value of religion, particularly in giving people hope.
The report dives into a lot of the different tensions and policies that define this debate - and also lay out where the Seven Segments stand on religion. You can read the full study below:
This week marked six years since Britain entered its first COVID lockdown. Many feel the pandemic has had a lasting impact on their lives that are still felt today, particularly younger Britons, those who feel financially insecure, and those who have lost faith in mainstream politics.
Gen Z are the most likely to report a lasting impact, both positive and negative. They are the group most likely to say their life is now worse than it would have been without the pandemic (35 per cent), but also the most likely to say it is better (16 per cent). By contrast, older generations are much more likely to say the pandemic had no lasting impact. Two-thirds of Baby Boomers (66 per cent) and 70 per cent of the Silent Generation say it made no difference to their lives.
One of the clearest areas where Gen Z report a lasting negative effect is mental health. Half say the pandemic harmed their mental health , compared with 21 per cent of Baby Boomers and just 14 per cent of the Silent Generation.
Ourpast researchon this topic explored how Britons’ habits have changed since the pandemic, with a significant proportion of Britons saying they spend more time on social media, less time socialising with colleagues after work, and less time partaking in community events.
Meanwhile, our polling shows that trust in politics hasn’t fully recovered since the pandemic. 52 per cent say the pandemic damaged their trust in politics.
Non-mainstream party voters display an even greater loss of trust in politics. This is especially true for Green voters, over two-thirds (69 per cent) of whom say that the pandemic had a negative impact on their trust in politics. For Reform voters this figure is 56 per cent.
The pandemic has had a disproportionate negative impact on the most financially insecure Britons Three in five (59 per cent) of the poorest Britons say that their life is worse now than it would have been without the pandemic, almost double the national average (31 per cent). For the most financially comfortable, on the other hand, just 15 per cent say their life is worse while 31 per cent say their life has improved following the pandemic, this being over three times the national average (10 per cent). They are also more likely to say that their trust in politics has been damaged, and that their mental health is worse than before.
Invitation - Appetite for change: What do Britons want from their food system?
This More in Common webinar will discuss the appetite for change across the country with regards to the food system. More in Common research has revealed that the majority of Britons think that we are eating worse than previous generations. That begs the question, what's going wrong, who do the public blame, and what do they want done about it?
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