Hope this finds you well and that you are surviving the heat!
In this week’s newsletter:
The Prime Minister has resigned - what comes next? Our polling this week shows what the public think of Keir Starmer’s time in office, and how a Burnham leadership might reshape politics.
Brexit, 10 years on: Our latest research looks at how Britons remember the Brexit years, and what they want from the future of UK-EU relations. We have also published a new ‘Brexit map of Britain’ - using an MRP to show which areas would be most or least likely to vote to rejoin the EU.
Is the British public ungovernable? In this week’s Opinion Brief Podcast, I ask what the churn of prime ministers in recent years says about our politics - and make the case that Britain is not, in fact, “ungovernable”.
In other news:
Understanding Britain’s coastal communities: our report for Associated British Ports takes a deep dive into how coastal Britons feel about their communities and the wider country.
Public attitudes to personal finance: From savings and investments to borrowing and debt - our webinar last week explored the public's attitudes to personal finances, through the lens of the Seven Segments of Britain.
Can video games help resist mis- and disinformation? More in Common partnered with UAL’s AKO Storytelling Institute to answer that question - sign up to the webinar next week!
And just a reminder that you can hear us talking about these topics in the Opinion Brief podcast! This week, we were lucky enough to be joined by Anand Menon, director of UK in a Changing Europe, to discuss the legacy of Brexit 10 years on. We also chat about Burnham, hay fever, and whether Britain has become ungovernable.
On Monday, Keir Starmer resigned as Prime Minister. How will Britons remember his time leading the country?
When we asked the public to name Keir Starmer’s greatest achievements in government, the most common answer was simply 'nothing' - reflecting what we’ve heard in our polling from a public who feel deeply disappointed with a lack of progress over the past two years. The word cloud below displays the words Britons chose, where Starmer does get credit, matches what we hear in our focus groups - particularly on foreign policy issues such as keeping Britain out of the Iran war and his handling of Donald Trump.
The public verdict on Starmer himself is not of someone in it for the wrong reasons. The median Briton sees him as a decent man but one who is not up to the job: 42 per cent say he is a decent person but not cut out to be PM, while a third say he is neither decent nor capable. Just 19 per cent see him as both.
Could Burnham tip the scales for Labour?
With Andy Burnham back in Westminster this week, our polling suggests that his leadership could offer a meaningful boost to Labour’s support. In a hypothetical election with Burnham as leader, Labour climbs 6 points to 27 per cent, marginally ahead of Reform, who fall from 28 to 26.
Burnham’s gains come from across the political spectrum - winning 4 per cent of both Conservative and Reform voters - but his real strength comes from rebuilding Labour’s left wing coalition. 15 per cent of current Lib Dem voters and 14 per cent of Greens say they would switch, alongside a quarter of those who don’t know how they would vote in an election held tomorrow.
We saw this in action in last week’s Makerfield by-election, where progressive voters rallied behind Andy Burnham; the Liberal Democrats and Greens both lost their deposits.
With tactical voting and “voting against” becoming a more integral feature of our politics - shaping the last three by-elections in Caerphilly, Gorton and Denton and now Makerfield - any Labour recovery will depend on their ability to unite the left and win back some voters who have left them for the right.
It’s been suggested that Andy Burnham would need to call an election in order to gain a fresh mandate. Interestingly, most Britons don’t share this view. 43 per cent say Starmer's successor would have a mandate and should get on with the job, against just over a third (37 per cent) who say an early election would be necessary. And among those who voted Labour in 2024, two thirds say there would be no need to go back to the country.
But even if there’s not an election for another three years, it’s clear that the public will want to see real change much sooner. Do they trust Burnham to deliver it?
When we asked Britons to describe Andy Burnham in a single word, many of the most common responses were highly optimistic: ‘good’, ‘ambitious’, ‘hopeful’. However, if there is a risk for the leadership hopeful, it comes from the word ‘unknown’. This reflects what we’ve heard in focus groups - many voters like his brand of politics and are willing to give Labour a rehearing, but aren’t quite sure what a Burnham premiership will look like in practice. His key test this summer will be to take advantage of that opportunity for a rehearing by setting out a clear vision for the country and scoring quick wins on issues like cost of living. The chance for the government to turn the dial is there but the window of opportunity is a narrow one.
Brexit, 10 years on
Tuesday marked a decade since Britain voted to leave the European Union, and as Brexit has shifted from being the insurgent choice to the status quo one, attitudes to leaving the EU have changed as well.
Our report this week looked in depth at how attitudes have moved, and how the EU has changed as a faultline in British politics. The clearest marker of how much things have changed is our new ‘Brexit map of Britain’ - an MRP modelling how Britons would vote in a rejoin referendum held today.
While it’s worth remembering that this is hypothetical and things would inevitably shift once the terms of rejoin became known, it is striking that at first ask just 11 of Britain's 632 constituencies would vote to stay out of the EU - all of them in England.
Even the most eurosceptic seat in the country, South Basildon and East Thurrock, would still see 48 per cent vote to rejoin. Scotland would vote unanimously to rejoin, with Glasgow North East the most pro-rejoin constituency in Britain at 87 per cent. 97 per cent of seats that voted Leave in 2016 would now return a majority for rejoining the EU.
The areas that remain the most eurosceptic follow the same patterns as in 2016: post-industrial or coastal English towns, Reform already holding many of them, and targeting all of them.
Part of this shift is, of course, age. There is now an entire generation of voters - Gen Z - who were too young to vote in the referendum. Three in five of them say they would vote to rejoin today. Our focus group with young voters found that, for many of them, Brexit was a politically formative moment - seeing the referendum and the years of debate that followed shaped their attitudes. On the one hand, there was a strong desire to see a closer relationship with Europe; but on the other, many worried about what rejoin would look like in practice - and whether Britain would be returning to the EU with “cap in hand”, our place on the world stage diminished and our negotiating position weakened.
For young Britons, there’s also a desire to avoid returning to endless Brexit debates - and distracting from other issues they care about like jobs, affordable housing, and climate change.
You can find the Guardian’s great writeup of our polling of Gen Z Britons here:
I think my memory was that went from in 2016 not being able to have a say and then all of a sudden in 2019 there was a multitude of different things to vote for - and all of a sudden I was allowed to vote, but I didn't get my opinion and my age category's opinion wasn't valid when it came to the original vote. Adam, physiotherapist, Manchester
Coming back ten years later with a hat in our hands, begging to come back in. It sounds romantic to rejoin, but we're in a much weaker position now to renegotiate, to reintegrate.
Jake, investment manager, Liverpool
It's sort of breaking up and getting back together after a ten-year break, is it a good idea?
Nia, doctor, Newcastle
And finally, our Seven Segments.
Support for Brexit has eroded across nearly every segment since 2016. The shift is most dramatic among Rooted Patriots, who have swung from a net +22 Leave position to net −8. The fact that these ‘Red Wall’ voters have flipped is huge: this was the group that helped deliver Boris Johnson's 2019 landslide, and which is now, on balance, more likely to vote for rejoin.
Dissenting Disruptors have also softened somewhat (+29 to +12), but remain opposed to rejoining. Meanwhile, the already pro-Remain segments have hardened further in that direction. Traditional Conservatives are the only segment who have hardened in their Euroscepticism since 2016.
But there are some big caveats here: support for rejoining is not set in stone and our polling found widespread opposition to key concessions that the UK would have to make. Few want to see us give up key powers that Brexit gave the UK - and in particular the ECJ jurisdiction could define any rejoin campaign, likely collapsing support among right-leaning segments.
Two in five Britons (41 per cent) say ECJ jurisdiction would be unacceptable as a condition of rejoining; 28 per cent say it would be acceptable. Progressive Activists are the only segment where more than half consider this an acceptable condition of rejoining. On balance, Rooted Patriots favour rejoining - but 53 per cent draw the line at ECJ jurisdiction. Their openness to rejoining the EU dissolves when sovereignty is on the table.
Similarly, given a list of potential areas where the UK might have to limit its sovereignty many are opposed - particularly in areas that appeal to the left of politics such as greater opportunities for state aid.
Our report for Associated British Ports takes a deep dive into how coastal Britons feel about their communities and the country as a whole.
There is a prevailing sense that coastal areas are misunderstood and ignored by those in power. Nearly eight in ten (79 per cent) say the government in Westminster does not understand their area while just 2 per cent said it understands the area very well. Meanwhile, nearly half (46 per cent) of those surveyed say they feel like the area rarely comes up in public debate.
Interestingly, young people from coastal communities are the most likely to see a brighter future for their area. 18-34 year-olds in coastal areas are significantly more likely than any other age bracket to say that their local area is better now than it was ten years ago (25 per cent). They’re also almost twice as likely to say they expect their area to be better in ten years’ time than worse (42 per cent vs 23 per cent).
Yet while young people are hopeful, they also risk being driven away by a lack of career opportunities. 18-34 year-olds are also far more likely to think young people want to leave their area than stay in it. The lack of job opportunities is considered the number one reason why.
Without further investment in the area, it’s possible coastal communities will suffer a further exodus of their area’s next generation of workers.
Public attitudes to personal finance
Last week, Rhiannon McQuone hosted a webinar looking at how attitudes toward savings, investments, borrowing and debt vary across our Seven Segments.
It looks at how financial insecurity, risk aversion and core values shape how Britons see their personal finances.
You can read the full report, and watch the webinar, below:
Webinar Invitation: Can games help us resist mis- and disinformation?
How can we rethink the methods we use as a society to safeguard ourselves against mis- and disinformation online? UAL’s AKO Storytelling Institute and More in Common have partnered to answer that question. Combining robust audience research and video-game design expertise, this report outlines an approach for game designers to nurture psychological literacy in players as a valuable way to build resilience against misinformation.
Join More in Common and the AKO Storytelling Institute as they discuss the learnings, key takeaways and next steps from this research for the games industry.
-1.png?upscale=true&width=588&upscale=true&name=The%20Opinion%20Brief%20(4)-1.png)
