Last Sunday, I wrote a piece in the Sunday Times about the new fault line in British politics. Our main argument is one that readers of the Opinion Brief will be familiar with: that British politics is now far more complex than a straightforward left-right fight. Increasingly, the more useful dividing line runs within each ideological bloc: those who want to "preserve and improve" the system, and those who want to burn it all down.
Within the ‘left bloc’, we have Labour and the Liberal Democrats representing the pro-system left, and the Greens representing the anti-system left; the right bloc spans Reform and Restore as the anti-system right, and the Conservatives as the pro-system right.
This means the challenge facing parties has changed,and it’s no longer enough to solely win over swing voters. As Andy Burnham hopes to revitalise the Labour Party’s electoral fortunes, there are three things that he (and other politicians) need to do:
Uniting your own bloc, so tactical voters rally behind you rather than defecting to another party.
Mobilising your supporters, since differential turnout matters more in a fragmented landscape
Reaching voters who move between blocs (such as from Labour to Reform, or the Conservatives to the Liberal Democrats. In the seats that matter, these switchers effectively count double.
In the May elections, Labour failed on the three counts. Yet in Makerfield, Burnham proved that it is possible for the two mainstream parties to meet these three tests. He united the left while still winning over some socially conservative voters concerned about immigration, and we saw the second-highest by-election turnout since 2000.
The big question now is, of course, whether he can unite his bloc on a national scale. To do so, there are a few of our Seven Segments he may need to bear in mind.
The first is Progressive Activists: they voted Labour enthusiastically in 2019 under Jeremy Corbyn, but have been moving away in recent years - now, the Greens lead with this group. Many feel frustrated by what they see as the Labour Government’s pivot to the right, and by a slow pace of change. To consolidate the left bloc, Burnham will need to win over these potential defectors, and show them that he’s able to radically change the country. He’s starting in a good place with Progressive Activists: Starmer’s net favourability rating with this group is -40, while Burnham's is +24 - the widest gap of our Seven Segments.
The challenge is quite different when it comes to Established Liberals. This group represented the Blue Wall, ‘Cameronite’ wing of the Conservative Party in previous elections, but swung toward Labour in 2024. Interestingly, it could be argued the Established Liberals were becoming Keir Starmer’s new base segment: his approval rating with this group was -3, still negative but higher than 5 of the other 6 segments. The gap between Starmer and Burnham’s approval ratings is narrower among Established Liberals than any other group - suggesting we might not see as large a “Burnham bounce” with this segment. The challenge here is to reassure this risk-averse, fiscally centre-right group. Otherwise, they may return to the Conservatives or Liberal Democrats.
Finally, we have Rooted Patriots - “Red Wall” voters who traditionally saw themselves as Labour, backed Brexit in 2016, voted for Boris Johnson in 2019, and have been moving toward Reform UK. Burnham is far more popular among this group than Keir Starmer - and in Makerfield he proved capable of winning over more socially conservative voters. The challenge here will be demonstrating credibility on migration, while also addressing the cost of living crisis.
The Battle for the Right
Restore Britain has cut through, winning 7 per cent of the vote in Makerfield and Rupert Lowe’s party is now often raised in focus groups. For the first time, Reform UK seems to be fighting the battle for the right on two fronts. But who do Britons think is winning this battle?
Over the past month, the proportion of Britons who see Reform as the “main party on the right of British politics” has dropped by 7 points, from 43 per cent to 36 per cent. Meanwhile, 24 per cent now see the Conservatives as the main party of the right, compared to 17 per cent in May.
While still the party that Britons are most likely to consider the main party on the right, Reform’s lead over the Conservatives has more than halved from 26 points to 12.
This may be surprising given the Tories lost their deposit in Makerfield, but their decisive victory in Aberdeen South that same night - combined with Badenoch’s high visibility and growing popularity in recent months - means many are looking again at the Conservatives.
And how real is Reform’s threat from their right flank? Our hypothetical polling suggests that Restore could seriously undermine Reform and shape the result of a general election. In a hypothetical election where Restore ran in every constituency across the country, 6 per cent of voters say they would vote for them, causing Reform’s polling lead to collapse. In this scenario, Reform would lead Labour by less than a point (24 per cent to 23 per cent), with the Conservatives a marginal third on 21 per cent.
Perhaps most interestingly, our polling finds that Restore is not always seen as a more right-wing alternative to Reform. The median Briton actually believes that Reform is more right-wing than Restore, placing them at a 9 on a scale of 0 (very left-wing) to 10 (very right-wing) - higher than Restore and the Conservatives who both score 8. However, many voters still aren’t certain what to make of Restore, with 31 per cent saying they don’t know where to place them on the scale - higher than any other party.
Restore voters themselves place Restore Britain and Reform UK at exactly the same point on the scale - giving both a median score of 8 - suggesting that even the party's own supporters don’t necessarily see it as more ideologically right-wing than Reform (although the average Restore voter does place themself 1-point to the right of Reform voters).
This matches what we hear in focus groups: while some Restore supporters reject traditional norms and boundaries on issues like race and identity and want to embrace figures like Tommy Robinson, for other Restore supporters or considerers, the party appeals because it is seen as a less divisive and more sensible version of Reform. It is the anti-establishment rather than the further-right appeal that is fuelling Restore.
"I would say that Nigel Farage just is not somebody that people are going to get behind unless they agree with the right leanings. Whereas I think Rupert Lowe comes across as a lot more sensible, a lot more professional and somebody who people could vote for even if they didn't necessarily agree with all of his policies. I think Nigel Farage is very divisive." Tracy, Housing Worker, Platt Bridge
Despite these threats, Reform still leads in the battle for the right. Part of that is that Reform are the most likely to be seen as the party of change - by nearly 2 in 5 Britons (37 per cent), giving them a 20 point lead over the Greens in second place (17 per cent). Given the public appetite for change and unhappiness with the status quo this lead is an important part of Reform’s appeal.
You can hear us discussing the battle for the right in this week’s Opinion Brief Podcast, where we were joined by Megan McElroy from POLITICO’s Playbook. You can listen to the episode here:
Every quarter, we work with Electrify Britain to track public opinion toward energy bills and the cost of living. Our latest update, released last week, found a widespread lack of hope: three in five Britons say they don’t know if their energy bills will ever become more affordable.
There’s a really strong electoral effect of this: while Britons across the spectrum say are struggling to keep up with their bills, Labour loyalists stand out in their (relative) optimism - most at least expect their bills to become more affordable at some point in the next few years. Meanwhile those who are most worried and pessimistic are far more likely to have switched to populist parties across right and left.
But it’s also deeper than just one party: in focus groups, blame is aimed at energy companies, foreign conflicts and President Trump. Many people feel that the government simply lacks agency to take action on cost of living . There’s a risk that, if those in power are seen to be powerless in the face of the public’s most urgent concern, people lose their remaining trust in Government’s ability to be a force for good.
“Well, my first thought is that it's our friend over the water, Mr. Trump. That's maybe very naive, but that's my feeling about it.” Sue, retired
“I think in a way they want to do something, but you don't know how much of it they're being held hostage by the power companies and how much profit they want and how much they're selling it at.” Martha, research administrator
As public sentiment around energy bills continues to worsen, the urgency of providing tangible support feels higher than ever. And as Andy Burnham sets out his vision for the country over the summer, it’s clear that the public will want a clear plan on the cost of living crisis to be at its centre.
In our report with Electrify Britain, we look at a couple of the solutions that could help tackle rising energy bills, how the public feel about them, and the barriers that put people off new technologies.
We now also have a tracker page on our website where you can explore attitudes to the cost of living over time. You can find it below:
With England winning its first knockout round on Wednesday - and Scotland sadly falling out of the tournament after their game with Brazil - what do the public make of the big debates of the World Cup?
We actually found, of the home nations, Scotland are the most proud of their national team: 61 per cent of Scots said they were proud of their men’s national team, 50 per cent in England and 47 per cent in Wales. But in our pre-World Cup polling we found the “Anyone but England” adage to not hold among Scots: only 20 per cent said they would root for England if Scotland weren’t in the tournament, but similarly only 28 per cent said they would actively want them to lose. It’ll be interesting to see how this ambivalence holds up now that it’s no longer a hypothetical.
Meanwhile our polling from last week (before the England-DR Congo game) found that Thomas Tuchel has a net approval rating of +13. This means Britons think Tuchel is doing a better job than any UK political leader.
Only around 1 in 10 (12 per cent) of the country think Tuchel is doing a bad job while a quarter (25 per cent) say he is doing a good job.
Most Britons, however, don’t have a take on Tuchel with 4 in 10 (39 per cent) saying they don’t know and another quarter (24 per cent) believing he is doing neither a good nor bad job.
One debate that’s emerged this year is around hydration breaks: some see them as a sensible way to help players cope with the heat; others feel it adds unnecessary gaps and breaks the momentum of the match.
Our polling (surprisingly in my view!) finds that Britons are actually quite positive about hydration breaks: 46 per cent of Britons say World Cup hydration breaks are a good thing versus 26 per cent who say they are bad, 20 per cent who “don’t care” and 8 per cent who “don’t know”. Football fans are nearly twice as likely as the average Briton to see hydration breaks as a bad thing (41 per cent), but still lean towards seeing them as a good thing (45 per cent).
Britons aren’t too cynical as most trust the hydration break justification and say the main reason is to help players deal with the heat (54 per cent) rather than to make more advertising money (30 per cent) or to enable managers to make tactical changes (3 per cent).
Thanks so much for reading, and as always, let us know what you think!
All the best, Luke
Destin Commun, 23 rue Jean-Jacques Rousseau, Paris, 75001, France
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