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Dear friend,

Happy Friday!

One year on from Labour’s election victory - and following a dramatic few weeks in politics – it’s been a busy time at More in Common. This newsletter is packed with brand new research, and there’s more to come: next week we’ll be launching a landmark report, so keep an eye on your inbox.

In this newsletter:

• What’s Changed? This week, we launched a report with UCL Policy Lab assessing public opinion a year after Labour’s General Election victory. What does the public make of their first year in government, and what would they like the next four years to look like?
• Our latest MRP reveals that an election held today could produce an electoral landscape few would recognise, and a clear frontrunner emerging from the political fragmentation of the past few months.
• Checking in on Wales: our first Senedd voting intention reveals a dramatic shift in Welsh politics - could we see the first non Labour First Minister ?
• The view from the focus groups: what’s drawing people toward Reform UK? Along with a BBC camera crew, we travelled to Dartford last weekend to speak to a group of voters about what they thought of the Labour government, and whether Reform could appeal to them.

But first, some news... 

In 2020, More in Common launched the British seven segments, a groundbreaking analysis of the values and worldviews of the seven tribes of Britons. 

Since then it has been used by politicians, policymakers, campaigners and the media to understand the currents of public opinion and particularly to amplify the voices of those who are normally overlooked and ignored in elite discourse.

Now five years on, after a pandemic, a cost of living crisis, four Prime Ministers, a General Election, two major international conflicts, the rise of new political movements and the transformation of the media landscape, the time has come to update those groups to match the Britain of 2025.

Based on polling of over 20,000 Britons and focus group conversations across the country, our new segmentation will once again provide a tool for understanding the contours of British politics, public opinion and the areas where we come together and diverge.

The new British Seven Segments will launch next Monday morning, alongside a landmark report exploring the new fault lines shaping Britain. Keep an eye on your inbox that morning to be among the first to read the report, and to take the quiz to find out which of the new segments you belong to.

What’s changed? How Britons view Labour’s first year in government, and how respect could be key to getting them back on track.

Last Friday marked a year since Labour’s election victory. Our latest report with our friends at UCL Policy Lab, What’s Changed?, asks the public what they made of Labour’s first start in government, and what had changed in the country since Keir Starmer entered Downing Street.

The 2024 General Election was a vote for change. In our polling immediately after the election, we asked the public to choose between the Conservative and Labour campaign slogans; three quarters (74 per cent) said they aligned with “It’s time for change”, compared to only a quarter who said, “we need to stick with the plan”. 

A year later, few think that this change has been delivered: asked what has changed in the last year, the most common response was “nothing”. What’s more, given the choice between the two slogans - “it’s time for change” and “stick to the plan”, Britons are now even more likely (77 per cent) to believe it’s time for change. 

So what’s driving this disappointment? Our polling finds that Labour has several popular policies: from GB Energy to The Employment Rights Bill, these government’s flagship policies align closely with public opinion - in particular, we found that Britons consider the decision to increase minimum wage to be Labour’s greatest success.

Yet unpopular means-testing the Winter Fuel Allowance - combined with proposed cuts to PIP and unpopular tax decisions - have overshadowed Labour’s policy agenda. These policies are discussed constantly in focus groups - and our awareness tracker shows that they are far more well-known than the policies Britons approve of.

So why do these spending decisions matter so much to Britons? One of the key findings from our research was that voters don’t see these decisions in isolation; they see them as part of a bigger picture about the government’s values and priorities. For many, it’s not just about how money is spent, but which groups the government respects, and which it does not.

In fact, respect has arisen as a common thread in many of our conversations with the public: in focus groups, Britons often complain that politicians lack respect for ordinary people, and seem out-of-touch for what life is like for the public.

“I don't feel like they respect us at all. I think from what Jamie was just saying, taking money off people with benefits and making life harder for them, but still letting the energy giants have huge bonuses every year. It just seems like they're at the wrong end because a hundred pounds saved from a person who's working class compared to the couple of grand that essentially those people wouldn't necessarily miss. Whereas a hundred pounds at the minute is like a week's food shop or whatever.”

Tim, teacher, Heywood and Middleton, Labour to Reform switcher 

The Prime Minister made respect for the contribution of ordinary people a key part of his campaign and early narrative in government. In his most recent Labour Party conference speech, Starmer promised to put respect and service “into the bones” of Britain’s institutions.

During the election, Labour tapped into this public appetite for a more respectful politics: in May 2024, more Britons felt respected by Labour than not. But that sense of respect has quickly faded. Now, 65 per cent say the party disrespects people like them, and 63 per cent say the same of Keir Starmer, up 31 points since the election.

And this sense of disrespect isn’t felt by all voters equally: those who are older, struggling financially, or didn’t go to university are far more likely to say that the Labour Party lacks respect for them.

As we explore in the report, this is part of a wider sense many Britons feel: that politicians lack respect for them and their contributions to society. It’s far wider than one party, and is driving people away from the traditional mainstream. In fact, across a range of measures those who voted for Reform last year are more likely to say they feel disrespected by those in power.

You can read the full report - and scroll through testimonies from 500 people describing how they feel the country has changed since the election - below:

More in Common’s latest MRP - A frontrunner emerges

This week, More in Common published our latest MRP – a model that uses current voting intentions to project how a General Election held tomorrow might play out. While much will change between now and the next election the model is useful for exploring where parties are gaining or losing support.

The headline: Reform UK would emerge as the largest party, winning 290 seats and becoming the clear frontrunner in a multi-party race. Labour falls to second place with 126 seats - a drop of 285 from the number they won just a year ago, leaving them with fewer than half as many seats as Reform. The Conservatives take third, dropping to double digits in the Commons and finishing just eight seats ahead of the Liberal Democrats.

In case these numbers don’t mean much to you, there’s a great interactive map on our website where you can explore this new political landscape seat-by-seat. Fact of the day: under this projection, you could walk from Workington to Hartlepool, then down the East of England to Clacton, without leaving a Reform seat.

In some ways, the picture is now less fragmented than it was in April. Back then, our model had Labour, the Conservatives and Reform neck and neck, each with between 165 and 180 seats. Today, Reform clearly pulls ahead.

They’re not just winning more seats; they’re winning them more comfortably. In April, Reform’s average margin of victory in new gains was 9 per cent. Now, it’s widened to 14 per cent.

If this projection played out in a real election, it would still produce a hung parliament, with Reform just 36 seats short of a majority, and only 16 seats behind what David Cameron’s Conservatives won in 2010.

Although we are a long way from an election and much will change between, Nigel Farage’s Party are demonstrating that they are now close to the level where they could command an outright majority. Britain's political landscape has transformed entirely from just a year ago.

Read the full research here:

Checking in on Wales

This week, for Sky News, we published our first Wales-specific voting intention ahead of the 2026 Senedd election. The polling was released alongside an interview with First Minister Eluned Morgan, which you can watch here.

With less than a year to go, the results suggest Labour could lose their position as the largest party in the Senedd for the first time since devolution in 1999. Reform UK is in the lead on 28 per cent, closely followed by Plaid Cymru on 26 per cent. Labour trails behind on just 23 per cent.

This marks a dramatic shift in Labour’s support since the General Election. Fewer than half (48 per cent) of Labour’s 2024 voters say they would back the party in a Senedd election held tomorrow. Of those switching, 15 per cent would move to Plaid Cymru and 11 per cent to Reform UK.

Two main dynamics are driving this shift. First, Labour’s vote is being split on the left, with many defecting to Plaid Cymru, pushing Plaid to a record high vote share, though still well short of the vote share they’d need for a majority. Second, Reform is consolidating its dominance on the right of Welsh politics, absorbing a third of 2024 Conservative voters.

Our colleague Jake has carried out some great analysis to see how this vote share would translate into seats in a real Senedd Election - and what the next Welsh Government could look like. Read his thread here.

The view from the focus groups: what’s driving support for Reform?

Last weekend, we travelled with a BBC camera crew to Dartford to conduct a focus group with Labour voters who were tempted by Reform UK.

Our conversation - which formed part of last week’s Sunday with Laura Kuensberg - covered a range of topics. We heard how people reacted to last week’s Prime Minister’s Questions and the Chancellor’s difficult week, and a wider mix of disappointment with Labour and apprehensive optimism - many felt that the government simply needs more time.

The discussions also revealed some of the factors driving Reform’s surge in recent months. Many felt that Nigel Farage offered a more ‘relatable’ alternative to mainstream politicians, who seem ‘far removed’ from ordinary people.

One participant mentioned that seeing a different side to Nigel Farage on I’m a Celebrity had turned her head toward Reform.

You can find the clips from our conversation here.

MIC in the media...

The Sunday Times: We made the front page last week with our snap poll for the ST. Conducted hours after the second welfare u-turn and turbulent PMQs, the poll gauged how public opinion was reacting to a tumultuous few weeks.

The Conversation: To mark the release of What’s Changed, our friends at UCL Policy Lab released a great op-ed, looking at the significance of respect to Keir Starmer’s story, and the importance of politicians demonstrating respect.

The BBC: After our focus group in Dartfood, Laura Kuenssberg published this must-read piece on what the voters we spoke to told us about Labour’s political future.

Politico: This morning, a great piece in Politico uses our polling to explore how Zarah Sultana and Jeremy Corbyn’s new party will affect British politics.

Thanks for reading! And once again, don’t forget to keep an eye out for an email on Monday morning, when we’ll be launching the new British Seven.

See you very soon!

All the best,

Luke