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Dear friend,

Happy Friday! Hope this finds you well.

In this week’s newsletter:

• No time for a honeymoon: What do Britons want to see from Andy Burnham’s government?
  
  

• The view from the focus groups: We’ve been in Clacton to find out what locals think of the by-election, and whether Farage’s finance row is actually fuelling support for Count Binface.
  

   

• After the Riots: What Northern Ireland Thinks is our first study devoted to public opinion in Northern Ireland. It asks how people responded to last month’s riots, worries about racism, and  attitudes to immigration.
  
  

• Sixty years of hurt: The dream is over for yet another tournament, but how did England’s world cup victories make us feel while they lasted?

No time for a honeymoon: What Britons want to see from Burnham

With Andy Burnham just a weekend away from Downing Street, our latest research with UCL Policy Lab suggests he may give the Labour Government a re-hearing: his net approval rating is positive across Labour’s 2024 voter base, including  the voters they have lost to left and right. And in focus groups, many describe a sense of hope that he cares and could offer something genuinely different from the current Labour leadership.

“I live in Manchester, I've lived here for a long time and he seems to be pretty popular here(...)but I feel the same,  I've got a general distrust of a lot of politicians, but he does seem to have done something quite... People on both sides of the political spectrum do seem to quite like him, which is I think sort of miraculous. I know Reform voters that like him and I know people that vote Green that also quite like him as well. And I couldn't name you a single other person that that is the case for.”
Elizabeth, Labour-left switcher, Gorton

Yet after feeling that the government has failed to deliver for them, public patience seems to be wearing thin. In other words, Britons have moved from gradualists to radicals. Since the 2024 general election, the public's appetite for radical change has grown while tolerance for gradualism has fallen. In July 2024, 52 per cent of Britons favoured smaller, gradual changes against 38 per cent who wanted more radical change. Two years on, that has flipped: 36 per cent now favour gradual change, while 42 per cent want something more radical. The shift holds even among 2024 Labour voters, and is even higher among those who have turned away from Labour since the election, regardless of whether they've gone left or right.

At the same time, many have lost faith that this government can make a difference, even under new leadership. In July 2024, 54 per cent of Britons expected the incoming Labour government to improve their lives, including 84 per cent of Labour's own voters. Today, just 41 per cent say the same of a Labour government under Burnham, and even 2024 Labour voters are split. It’s worth saying that this has bounced back significantly since Andy Burnham has become the Prime Minister-in-waiting. But two years in office have tempered expectations considerably.

We also see this impatience in our deep dive into the Makerfield by-election. The day after the vote, we showed voters in Makerfield Andy Burnham’s victory speech. The line that resonated most - across Labour and Reform voters - was when Burnham described this as the “final chance to change”. Lisa from Winstanley described “shouting at the telly”, urging her new MP not to waste the opportunity to deliver change, while even some Reform voters said that the line gave them a “little bit of hope”.

“I was actually shouting at the telly this morning, eating my breakfast, watching that acceptance speech … I was agreeing with everything going, ‘Yes, Andy, it is your last chance’. It’s your last chance saloon! Don’t waste it, mate!”

Lisa, Teacher, Winstanley

“As a non-Labour supporter, it's given me a little bit of hope (...) As he said in his speech, he's listening to people... that they're giving him a chance and he knows he's got three years. He's got three years here and if they don't sort it out, if he's not true to his word, then they're all out of a job."
Alex, Machine Manufacturer, Ashton

The public is also clear about where to start. Most Britons want to see radical progress within a year: majorities expect visible progress by July 2027 on the cost of living, energy bills, NHS waiting times and small boat crossings. But a plurality (35 per cent) want Burnham to tackle the cost of living within just six months. His own base is even more impatient: 2 in 5 of those who have switched away from Labour since 2024 (42 per cent) give him six months to bring down energy bills.

But while Britons want radical change, it’s clear that even smaller interventions on the cost of living would help to show that he cares. In Makerfield, voters told us that they had noticed real improvements thanks to policies like the bus fare cap that Burnham introduced. These small but tangible policies could be key to restoring faith in this government’s ability to make Britons’ lives better.

“I'm already feeling the benefits of what he's done … having the bus fare reduced makes a massive difference. It saved me about 60 quid a month, just by him capping the bus fare - and I think everybody in whatever wage bracket you're in is feeling it.”

Ella, Nurse, Highfield

Read our full report with UCL Policy Lab here:

And you can find Lara Spirit’s great writeup of the findings in the Sunday Times here.

The view from the focus groups: Clacton by-election

It’s been yet another big week for Nigel Farage. As nominations for the Clacton by-election come to a close, our polling finds that the finance row has cut through across the country: only 16 per cent of Britons say they have not heard about the £5 million donation, and seven in ten say it reflects negatively on the Reform leader.

We've been in Clacton to find out what locals think of the by-election, and whether Farage's finance row is actually fuelling support for Count Binface. Views on Farage as Clacton's MP ranged from devotion to anger and complete rejection - while some feel torn.

"He comes here whenever he can. He shows his face. He never puts on any airs or graces. He acts just like all of us, and he likes his pint of beer, as we all know. I love him to bits and I love what he stands for. I just hope and pray that he gets in."
Brenda, retired

"I'm not a fan of Nigel Farage. I think he's a complete waste of time. He only appears for photo shoots or when it's an election. The day after he resigned, he suddenly appeared in Clacton."
Lewis, IT engineer

"My views are quite mixed. I do think Farage has done some good things in Clacton. He's brought in money for holiday clubs for working parents … But I do think he spends a lot of time in America, and I would rather him be concentrating on our problems that we've got here."
Sally, university assistant

On the finance row itself, the group split. For some, the donations story showed Farage had not followed the rules; for his most enthusiastic supporters, it was jealousy or an establishment stitch-up; and for others it was simply indistinguishable from the freebies and scandals of every other politician. Even his most ardent critic in the group didn't view Farage as an exception, pointing out that "all politicians are bent to a lesser or greater degree".

"It's not a law, it's the rules and regulations at Westminster that state that anything substantial, even a gift if it's not from family, needs to be put in … So he has done something wrong. And I think he has called this election to get out of that."
Lewis, IT engineer

"I think all politicians have a little bit of a scrape off, to be fair. I don't think you can trust any of them … At the end of the day, they're politicians, they're going to do this, aren't they?"
Derek, retied

"I think a lot of it is jealousy. Why shouldn't that man - if they gave me five million, I'd take it and run. Why are they picking him to pieces?"
Brenda, retired

This reflects our national polling: while 69% of Britons say the £5 million donation reflects negatively on Farage, Reform's voter base is split: among those who backed the party in 2024, only 30 per cent say the £5 million donation reflects badly on him; among those who have joined the party since, this rises to nearly half (44 per cent). So for Farage’s core voters, it seems unlikely that his finance row will shake their support, yet it is the second group - the voters who have switched to Reform, or might consider doing so - who could be put off.

It's not all good news for Farage. Nearly everyone in the group - including his strongest supporters - felt that winning the by-election would be no reason to halt the standards process on his return, even if that means going through it all again.

"Has to be. From a political point of view, it's basically he's getting nicked for something. So if that's the case, you have to go down the process again. I don't like it, but that's how it is. It's like if you get done for drink driving - they tend to ask you to redo your test."
Lewis, IT engineer

"I agree entirely. Two by-elections probably within six months — that's a waste of a lot of money … I think Farage should have just waited until the investigation was over and they gave their verdict."
Ella, between jobs

Here too the group reflects the country: most Britons (53%) say that if Farage wins Clacton but the standards investigation later finds he broke the rules, there should be another by-election.

And what of Count Binface? Participants had heard of him, but mostly saw him as a joke. For those considering Reform, there is a risk that Binface is seen to be making a mockery of the process. However, one anti-Farage voter said they would back him for precisely that reason.

"Joke, isn't it really?"
Derek, retired

"Yeah, I'll vote for him, because in his own words, he's not Nigel Farage."
Lewis, IT assistant

"It looks like I'm voting for a man that wears a dustbin on his head, because as a woman I've got to vote. Coming from the East End, I was brought up that women acted to earn the right to vote, so I always vote. But being as nobody else is really standing against him, there's no option really." Ella, between jobs

After the riots: What Northern Ireland Thinks

This week on the Opinion Brief Podcast, we were joined by Conleth Burns, our Associate Director in Ireland and Northern Ireland, to talk about More in Common’s first study devoted to public opinion in Northern Ireland. It asks how people responded to last month's riots, their concerns about rising racism, and attitudes to immigration. You can listen to the episode here:

The riots that swept through Belfast and other towns last month, after the attempted murder of Stephen Ogilvie, were among the most serious outbreaks of disorder Northern Ireland has seen in recent years – the third such episode in three years, after the unrest of summer 2024 and the Ballymena riots last year.

Polled in the days after the disorder, the public are more united and more nuanced in their views than social media would suggest. Across communities, large majorities condemn the violence and say it brings shame on Northern Ireland. They worry about rising racism, and about migrants’ safety. Most people want politicians to lower the temperature when tensions flare.

Asked to choose, 62 per cent of people in Northern Ireland call the disorder riots, just 24 per cent call them protests – a view held across communities: 70 per cent of nationalists, 72 per cent of ‘other’ voters and a majority (52 per cent) of unionists.

More than three quarters (77 per cent) say those participating do not speak for them, and 60 per cent say the disorder brought shame on Northern Ireland. That view holds in every community.

The public draws a clear line between peaceful protest and everything else. Nine in ten say setting fire to vehicles (90 per cent) or to migrant homes and businesses (87 per cent) is not justified, and 80 per cent say the same of intimidating migrants into leaving the area. However that shouldn’t lead to complacency from law makers or civil society more broadly - the fact that a minority - around one in ten people in Northern Ireland see anti migrant violence or intimidation as justified and which translates into thousands of people shouldn’t be overlooked and matches similar data we saw in Britain after the 2024 riots.

Asked to describe Northern Ireland in a word, the public’s most common choice is “divided”. Yet one of the most interesting findings of the report is the changing nature of this division.

In a place where division has long run along green and orange lines, racism now concerns people as much as sectarianism. More than three quarters (76 per cent) now call racism in Northern Ireland a serious problem, just above concern about sectarianism (73 per cent) and ahead of paramilitary activity (68 per cent). Most feel that racism is rising - particularly online.

Asked to name the biggest divides in Northern Irish society today, half (49%) of the public pick the divide between immigrants and people born here – more than those who name unionist/nationalist (35%), white people and ethnic minorities (32%) and Protestant and Catholic (31%).

The report also found rising concern about immigration, and a desire for the Irish Government, NI Executive and UK government to act together to improve the immigration system.

Immigration now sits in every community’s top-three issues, and unionist voters rank it as their single biggest concern (63 per cent). People worry far more about illegal immigration than legal migration: 78 per cent are concerned about the first, against 34 per cent for legal migration through approved routes.

Most (62 per cent) would back immigration checks at the border with the Republic even if that means a harder border – with nationalist voters split down the middle: 45 per cent back checks, 44 per cent want the border to stay open as it is. Debates about borders have become more focused on immigration and are no longer purely constitutional questions.

Read the full report below. And we’ll have more More in Common research in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland coming soon, so stay tuned!

Sixty years of hurt

With the dream over for yet another tournament, it's worth looking back on how England's World Cup journey made us feel, while it lasted. England's performances became a source of pride, happiness and excitement for around two thirds of the nation: last week, we found that 68% of English people say the performances made them feel proud, 72% happy, and 65% excited.

Gen Z felt the most hopeful: 9 in 10 of those under 29 said England's performances made them feel happy, 87% excited and 82% proud. But sixty years of hurt might have stopped the oldest fans dreaming - while over-75s felt proud (56%) and happy (62%), only 43% felt excited, well below the English public as a whole. Perhaps witnessing too many semi-final disappointments has chipped away at their optimism.

Spare a thought for Thomas Tuchel, whose net approval rating hit +36 last week after the wins over Mexico and Norway - his highest yet, but one we may expect to drop in this week's poll.

A thank you! 

Also, this week we hosted our annual summer reception with our friends at UCL Policy Lab, welcoming hundreds of friends, partners and stakeholders that we have worked with over the past year. The evening also included some great speeches from Wes Streeting, Laura Trott and Marc Stears. Thank you to everybody that came - it was truly a special evening!

Thanks so much for reading, and as always, let us know what you think!

All the best,
Luke