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Dear friend,

Hope this finds you well!

In this week’s newsletter:

• The view from the focus groups: Is the Scottish Parliament Election going to be a “Meh-election”? 

• The assisted dying bill has run out of time - what do Britons want to happen next? 

• Can you “Build a voter”? Using our data, the Economist has built a tool that helps us explain an increasingly “promiscuous” electorate.

And don’t forget, you can now hear us discussing these findings in our Opinion Brief Podcast, released every Thursday in time for your morning commute. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts here.

This week, we were joined by Owen Winter from the Economist, who joined us to talk about their new Build a Voter tool. You can find the full episode here:

But first, a couple of invitations…

With elections taking place across Britain on 7 May, we'd like to invite you to two More in Common webinars on Tuesday 5 May - one sharing our final pre-election projections and research, and one exploring the rise of the populist right that has fuelled Reform UK’s ascent.

Full details of both webinars can be found at the bottom of this email.

More in Common’s final pre-election briefing

Tuesday 5 May 2026

11:00 - 12:00

Dissenting Disruptors webinar: who is Britain’s new populist right?

Tuesday 5 May 2026

12:30 - 13:30

The big "meh" in Scotland

Last weekend, we took a road trip across Scotland speaking to voters ahead of the Holyrood elections. It’s safe to say that they were among the most unenthusiastic voters we’ve heard from during an election period.

We know that - much like in Wales and the parts of England going to the polls next week, voters in Scotland are impatient for change: almost three quarters (73 per cent) of Scots say that it is time for change in the country, while 27 per cent think that Scotland should “stick to the plan”. Nine in ten of those planning to vote Conservative and Reform in the election believe it’s time for change - but that view also extends to seven in ten Labour voters (73 per cent), and even 43 per cent of SNP voters.

Yet Scotland is in an unusual position because, while the public are impatient for change, there isn’t a clear ‘change’ candidate - nor even a single incumbent: many Scots describe a desire for something new after nearly two decades of the SNP, yet they are also often deeply disillusioned with the Labour Government in Westminster. As we saw driving across the East of Scotland, the result is an overwhelming sense of “meh”, voters feel like they’re choosing the least bad option, rather than voting with any enthusiasm.

“The SNP need to lose, but I don’t know what a good outcome would be. We need change but we’re not going to get it.”
April, North Berwick

“Well, I think there was a lot of hope in Labour coming into government, and I think they've just failed to deliver on anything.”
Caroline, Midlothian

“There’s a doom spiral, we need some kind of action or change. We’re just stagnating (...) I don’t think the SNP have a grasp on any of these problems; they’ve caused some of them. They’ve not got any solution or anything. That stagnation is particularly strong because we have two governments - in Scotland and in London. It feels like we’re managed badly twice.“
William, Glasgow

“It’s a choice between the devil and the deep blue sea. This is the first election where I’m really struggling, I’ve always voted SNP. This time I’m really not sure. My mum and dad, all their days, they voted Labour (...) even my dad, he’s disgusted with them. It’s very, very difficult.“
Lorraine, Glasgow

For many in the groups, people felt that there were no “big beasts” left in Scottish politics. While few spoke about John Swinney with the same anger we often hear directed toward Keir Starmer, some felt he lacked the “fire in his belly” that previous Scottish politicians had carried. Interestingly, people didn’t talk about these figures in a partisan way: staunch unionists spoke about Nicola Sturgeon with a sense of admiration, even if they weren’t fans of hers; SNP voters told us they missed figures like Ruth Davidson and Alex Salmond.

“I think underneath that (Starmer) is a decent guy, but I don't know that he's got the charisma, somebody said, to drive things on. I think that's the difference between ... I wasn't a fan of Nicola Sturgeon, but she certainly put herself out there. She was a bit more present.”
April, North Berwick

“I preferred politics when it was Sturgeon, Ruth Davidson, Kezia Dugdale”
Sam, Midlothian

voters are equally disillusioned with Labour in Westminster. The Mandelson scandal hung over every conversation we had, and it’s clear that many felt that this Labour Government felt little different from the Conservatives.

“I had high hopes on July 4th, it was shattered on July 5th.”
Stephen, semi-retired, Edinburgh

“I think they always know. It’s like Boris Johnson and the COVID thing. He knew. The thing with Starmer and Epstein. He knows. I think they all know really.”
Becca, student, Edinburgh

It’s not entirely clear how this ‘meh’ will play out on election day next week. It’s clear that this disillusionment is driving voters to Reform - although likewise with a seeming lack of enthusiasm, a sense of “it can’t get any worse” rather than excitement. We also heard from disillusioned SNP voters who were considering turning toward the Greens for a chance to deliver change. It wouldn’t be surprising if, for many people, the outcome is that they stay home on polling day and this election has a low turnout.

“It can't get any worse than it's been and hopefully somebody would come in and prove their point, instead of retracting over what they say to get in.I'd like (Reform) to do what they say  because on paper, it means good. They need to talk the talk and walk the walk.”
Caroline, Midlothian

“I believe Scottish Greens were one of the main forces pushing behind the trial of ending peak fares. So that is kind of a specific thing trying to pull the SNP in that direction.”

Finley, Edinburgh

We were joined in our road trip by Daniel Sanderson and John Boothman from the Times, who did an excellent writeup of the focus groups here.

What next for assisted dying?

Last week, the Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill ran out of time in the House of Lords. Our 2024 report, Proceeding with Caution, set out the public's priorities and expectations as the bill first entered Parliament. As the bill falls, what do Britons make of the way it was handled, how have views shifted, and where do they want the debate to go from here?

Our polling over last weekend found that the public doesn't want this to be the end of the conversation. Two-thirds (66 per cent) want an assisted dying bill reintroduced into Parliament. But that doesn’t mean Britons don’t want to see the bill properly scrutinised and amended: the single most popular option (selected by 37 per cent) is a new bill with stronger safeguards, rather than just reintroducing the existing one. While only 16 per cent say a new bill should not be introduced at all this parliament, it seems there is also little appetite for using the Parliament Act to force the existing legislation through.

There's been a sense in much of the commentary that months of parliamentary debate had gradually worn down public enthusiasm for legalisation. Actually, our polling suggests that public opinion on the issue has remained remarkably stable throughout this process: 64 per cent support the principle of legalising assisted dying, just one point below when the bill entered parliament in November 2024, and essentially unchanged throughout. Most Britons (59 per cent) say the debate hasn't changed their view at all. Among those who have changed their minds, nearly 4 times as many have become more supportive than less so (19 per cent vs. 5 per cent). 

However, even if public opinion on the principle of assisted dying has not changed, Britons still think some key safeguards were missing from the Terminally Ill Adults Bill: nearly two-thirds of Britons believe that approval from a judge is either essential (34 per cent) or good to have (30 per cent), despite this requirement being dropped from the legislation. And four in five said that palliative care must be offered as an alternative to patients - a point of contention through much of the debate.

On the other side of the debate, some have said that the House of Lords has overstepped and behaved undemocratically. A large minority of Britons - 4 in 10 (41 per cent) - hold this view, compared to 28 per cent who say it was performing its legitimate democratic function of careful scrutiny. More broadly, opinion on whether the Lords should be able to block legislation is split: 34 per cent say it shouldn't be able to block laws passed by elected MPs at all; 13 per cent say it should be able to so long as the policies are not manifesto pledges; 19 per cent believe that the Lords should be able to block all legislation - even if it was in the manifesto.

The House of Lords divides opinion in an interesting way. Labour and Conservative voters are the most likely to say the Lords behaved democratically, and the least likely to want their powers curbed. Green and Reform voters take the opposite view, with most saying the Lords behaved undemocratically and should lose the veto. It is another issue that does not split along left-right lines, instead dividing the public between the pro-institution and the anti-institution.

Can you “build a voter”?

Last week, the Economist published an updated “build a voter” tool using our data. It’s a great way to understand political fragmentation and our increasingly volatile electorate.

The tool allows you to build your own demographic group, or press shuffle to select one at random, and see how likely a person in that group would be to vote for the different parties if a general election were held tomorrow.

So for example, if you happen to be a white woman in your late forties or early fifties who lives in a town in the North East of England, did not attend university, and own your own home - there are around 8,300 other people in the country who share your characteristics. In 2024, there’s a 53 per cent chance you voted Labour in the General Election, a 16 per cent chance that you voted Conservative, and a 15 per cent chance of voting Reform. Yet today, your likelihood of voting Labour has halved to just 24 per cent, while you now have a 33 per cent chance of voting Reform. Interestingly, your likelihood of voting Green has also more than doubled, from 6 per cent to 13 per cent.

You can explore the tool here to play with the model yourself.

We were also lucky enough to have Owen Winter on the Opinion Brief Podcast this week, explaining the tool and what it tells us about British politics. You can listen to the episode wherever you get your podcasts here:

Webinar invitations

More in Common’s final pre-election briefing

Tuesday 5 May 2026

11:00 - 12:00

Join More in Common for our final deep dive webinar ahead of parliamentary elections in Scotland and Wales, and local elections in England. We'll be revealing our final projections, looking at the key issues that will decide the outcomes, and explaining what’s at stake for each party in these critical elections.

We'll share brand new research during the webinar, including:

• More in Common’s first MRP of London, alongside new MRPs in Scotland and Wales.
• Brand new polling from across the areas of England going to the polls on May 7.
• In-depth analysis of our new MRP models in Scotland and Wales.
• Insights from new focus groups conducted across the country in recent weeks.

Register for the webinar below. Hope to see you there!

Dissenting Disruptors webinar: who is Britain’s new populist right?

Tuesday 5 May 2026

12:30 - 13:30

With Reform UK on track to break through in elections on May 7, what is fuelling the rise of the populist right in Britain?

Join us for a webinar exploring our latest report, Dissenting Disruptors - a deep-dive into one of More in Common's British Seven Segments.

Dissenting Disruptors make up around 20 per cent of the UK population and are the core of the populist right today. Most reject multiculturalism, believe free speech is under threat, and feel that Islam is incompatible with British values. Almost all (94 per cent) say politicians lack respect for people like them, and many feel the need to "burn down" established norms and institutions. Half (51 per cent) believe Britain could face a civil war within the next ten years.

In this webinar, we’ll take a closer look at Britain's new right, how they diverge and converge with other Britons, and what makes them distinct from the populist right in other countries.

Register through the link below:

Thanks so much for reading! As always, let us know what you think, and if you have any thoughts for the podcast please drop us an email at hello@moreincommon.com.

All the best,

Luke