Dear friend,

We hope this finds you well and enjoying the sun!

Last week's local elections marked a dramatic shift in the political landscape, marking the start of a new era of multi-party politics. Throughout the election period, we conducted polling and focus groups across the country. In this newsletter, we’re sharing a few highlights from that research:

• The results. Looking at the big picture, we'll share some seat analysis and tell the main story of the election.
• What does it mean? A look ahead at the implications of these results for each of the parties, and for our electoral system as a whole.
• The view from the focus groups - what happened in Runcorn? The day after the by-election, we spoke with voters in Runcorn and Helsby to help make sense of the outcome.

The results

The defining story of this election was one of unprecedented fragmentation, the collapse of the two main parties and the surge of Reform UK.

For the first time, neither the Conservatives nor Labour topped the Projected National Vote share. Reform UK came out ahead, while the Conservatives dropped to fourth place - their worst result in history.

After this week’s elections, just 57 per cent of council seats in Great Britain are controlled by Labour or the Conservatives, the lowest 
proportion since at least the 1970s.

This fragmentation also translates into an exceptionally marginal set of results.

In 2021, 65 per cent of seats were won on a more than 50 per cent vote share; this year, just 16 per cent were. This presents a larger danger for Labour and the Conservatives, whose seats were won most marginally - suggesting that they could suffer further damage if current trends continue. For both Labour and the Conservatives, the median seat was won on an 8 per cent margin, compared to 11 per cent for Reform UK, 15 per cent for the Liberal Democrats, and 17 per cent for the Greens.

Reform did exceptionally well, gaining 677 seats and taking control of 10 councils. Although this swing was greatest against the Conservatives, it's worth noting that the Conservatives started from a position of strength following their strong performance in 2021. This disguises the fact that Reform made gains at the expense of both Labour and the Conservatives this election, and are competing for both parties' votes.

What does it mean?

What do the results mean for Labour?

These local elections were the first major electoral test that the new government has faced, and it's fair to say that the public's verdict was unequivocal. Labour’s projected national share (PNS) from this round of local elections is on-par with the party’s worst ever result in 2009 - the year before it was ousted from Downing Street for 14 years.

Labour’s losses were particularly pronounced in some of its historic heartlands: Labour’s vote share declined in each of the wards where the party won more than half of the vote in 2021.

These results represent a deep sense of dissatisfaction with the status quo. In focus groups across the country in recent weeks, Britons expressed a feeling that the country is deeply broken. For some, far from delivering the 'change' that was promised, Labour has come to represent the broken status quo. While some are still willing to give it more time, others are running out of patience and struggling to discern a difference between this government and the last. 

"I know they've harp on that they inherited X amount of this and X amount of that. I'm not sure what they really did inherit, but I think we've got a crisis looming.”
Martyn, retired steel worker, Scunthorpe

"I think we need change because you can't tell the difference between Labour and Conservative anymore.”

Carol, bookkeeper, Peterborough

One issue that at the heart of this gloom is the government's decision last year to means-test the Winter Fuel Allowance. The decision arose in almost every focus group during this election period - with Britons across politics expressing anger over the decision.  

It's beyond doubt that the Winter Fuel Allowance will remain as one of the core debates of Keir Starmer's first government; it is perhaps unsurprising that these election results have prompted a renewed conversation about the government’s stance. 

“Yeah, I've also voted Reform yesterday and pleased I think that they got in. I'm totally disillusioned with Labour, totally disillusioned. The first thing that they did was to take the Winter Fuel Allowance away from the pensioners and then it's just all gone downhill.”

Michelle, Retired, Runcorn

Looking ahead, 2026 is set to be a big electoral year for Labour. 

The Labour government will be tested in the Scottish Parliament elections - where our MRP estimates that Labour could lose much of the Central Belt to the SNP. In Wales, our MRP suggests Labour could lose historic safe seats across the Welsh Valleys to Reform UK. Meanwhile in London and Birmingham City Council, Labour could face heavy challenges from ‘Gaza Independent’ candidates.

Last Thursday's elections may represent Labour's first electoral challenge in government, but they certainly won't be the last.

What do the results mean for the Conservatives?

Less than a year after the General Election, the locals have dealt another electoral blow to the Conservative Party.

The Conservatives’ night was worse than most expected. They lost 674
seats (more than two-thirds of the seats they were defending), and lost
control of all 16 councils they entered the election with.

The Conservatives lost votes to Reform UK across the country, and the Liberal Democrats across much of the South, each of which either won enough seats from the Conservatives to put themselves into control of a council, or to deprive the Conservatives of a majority.  

These results have naturally raised questions about the future of the Conservative Party.

The good news for the Conservatives is that most voters do not see the threat of Reform as existential - yet. A majority of all party supporters believe the party will exist after the next election. But just 12% of people think there will be a Conservative majority government, while 19% foresee one governed by Reform UK. 

The results have also raised some questions about the party's leadership. Our hypothetical polling finds that replacing Kemi Badenoch with another Conservative figure like Robert Jenrick does not significantly shift their position in the polls.

However, Boris Johnson increases the Conservative vote by 5 points
and reduces the Reform vote by 6 points. This converts an 8-point lead for Reform over the Tories into a 3-point Conservative lead. Almost 60 per cent of Conservative supporters- and half of those who say they will vote Reform UK at the next election- say that bringing back Boris Johnson would be a good thing for the Conservative Party. Even a third of Labour voters agree.

“I like Boris Johnson. At least you knew what you'd got with Boris. You got a blooming idiot who just said it how he saw it. He didn't spend time preening himself, obviously. And I actually liked that about him. I think who we've got now, she just in the background somewhere.”
Kim, retired teacher, Doncaster

However, Johnson’s appeal is much weaker among Liberal Democrat voters; it’s possible any return to the helm may help the party against
Reform, hinder them in their battle against the Liberal Democrats in the East and South West of England.

However Badenoch’s ‘don’t knows’ remain high across poll questions and focus groups suggest her underperformance is largely a product of being unknown/not cutting through than dislike of the leader.

“I wouldn't know her if I fell over her.”
Helen, Shop Manager, Hull

What do the results mean for Reform UK?

It was a very good night for Nigel Farage and his party. The results provided their first chance since the General Election to prove they can mobilise their supporters and convert votes into seats.

In last week's newsletter, we said that Reform's performance would hinge on turnout. It's clear from their performance that they can run a difficult Get-Out-The-Vote (GOTV) operation. Either through their own infrastructure, or the enthusiasm of their supporters, Reform is able to match the GOTV of the established parties. 

The results also show that the party has managed to reach a broader support base. The voter coalition that turned out for the party last Thursday looks markedly different to the party that turned out for them in July 2024.

Since the General Election, the party has attracted defectors from both Labour and the Conservatives, and mobilised many who previously hadn’t voted. Now, fewer than half of those intending to vote Reform voted for the party in 2024.

Reform's voters are beginning to look less like an ideologically cohesive block, and more like a disillusioned broad church. They are united by concern about immigration, and a general sense that the country is moving in the wrong direction.

However, when you scratch the surface, these new voters diverge from Reform’s original base - most starkly for instance in their perceptions of President Trump, and their attitudes on several issues from climate change to gender equality.

As shown last Thursday, Reform’s broader appeal is undeniably a strength: it has allowed the party to grow beyond its engaged core and emerge as a formidable electoral force. But the challenge now will be to find unifying policy agenda that can hold this more diverse coalition together.

You can find our analysis of what the results mean for the other parties, and for our electoral system as a whole, here:

The view from the focus groups - what happened in Runcorn?

The Runcorn and Hellsby by-election was the closest result of any by-election since World War One, with Reform taking victory with a margin of only six votes.

That evening, hours after the results were announced, More in Common convened three focus groups with people in the Runcorn and Hellsby constituency: a group of 2024 Labour voters who had switched to Reform in this by-election, a group who had stayed loyal to Labour, and a group who had defected to other parties or stayed at home.

A common thread across the three groups was a deep sense of despondency. Most of the Labour-Reform switchers hoped that Reform’s victory would give the government a ‘bit of a shake’ or a ‘kick up the backside’. These new Reform voters felt that the government had gone down the wrong path - citing the Winter Fuel Allowance and PIP, along with concerns about immigration - and that this by-election provided them with an opportunity to call for course correction. 

“I voted Reform, I’m traditionally a labour voter… but it wasn't going to influence much in terms of the way the country's run, but hopefully it will be a little bit of a kick up the bum that changes things. Change is needed.”
Matt, Nurse 

“It was so that we could send a clear message to Starmer, you're going down the wrong path. You are telling us you want to save money and cut back on benefits to the disabled and the pensions in one breath and then in the second breath you're talking about paying an absolute fortune to the Chagos Islands. And that to me does not add up.”
Paul, Veteran

And even among those who remained loyal to Labour at this election, there was a lack of enthusiasm: they spoke of voting tactically in order to keep Reform out, rather than out of excitement for Labour's plans in government. Even some lifelong Labour voters expressed a sense of reluctance in their vote.

Some, however, voted Labour because they felt that it was too early to pass judgement on the new government, and that they needed more time to deal with their challenging inheritance.

“I've always voted Labour, but this time I felt like I was voting Labour to try and stop Reform getting in rather than really wanting a win.”

Joe, financial analyst

“It was left in such a state before they got in (...) They do need to try and figure that out, but it's hard to feel super excited based on what we've seen in the last nine months.”

Scott, restaurant manager

The cost of living crisis was another common thread running through all of these conversations. Many shared how they felt they were just about ‘surviving’ and that there was a lack of support available.

“The way we're living now, it's ridiculous. I'm getting up at my age still at half past four in the morning, going to work. I've got a mortgage and stuff on my own, but I don't live now. I just survive. That's how I feel. And I think, I know it sounds awful, but people are coming in where I work and they don't work and they're better off than me. So I think this is just not life anymore. So I think we do need a change.”
Vicky, Supermarket Assistant

But despite their despondency and disappointment with the government’s record to date, many had doubts about Nigel Farage and his party. Many admired his straight-talking politics - contrasting Reform to the other parties - but some expressed doubts, and wondered if Reform would be genuine champions for the local area.

“He does have quite a strong idea of what he wants Britain to look like and I think you've got to look a little bit deeper than what is portrayed in the media. There's still things about him that I don't particularly like or agree with, but I think on the whole(...) he is trying to make improvements”
Jenny, teacher

“I don't think (Sarah Pochin) has got any interest in Runcorn and Helsby. I think they’re here because it was the only by-election. If the by-election had been somewhere else, they would've put her there.”

Joe, financial analyst

All in all, the mood was broadly bleak. Voters on all sides spoke with similar language about the cost of living, the need for more local investment, and their lack of trust in politicians of every party. In this atmosphere of and disillusionment and apprehension, the unexpectedly close result makes sense.

Find out more

If you're interested in our analysis of the results, you can read our full briefing here:

Please do reach out and let us know what you think - and feel free to forward this email to friends who might be interested.

Thanks and all the best, 

Luke Tryl
Executive Director
More in Common UK