Subscribe Here | Send your thoughts

Dear friend,

Hope you’re all well and not feeling too rough after another night of high-octane vote counting.

We have lots to unpack for you in this week’s newsletter:

• Makerfield turns out: What’s behind that remarkable turnout, and what drove Andy Burnham’s support?

• What do the results mean for Reform UK? (and for Restore Britain)

• The SNP, the Tories, and the role of oil and gas in Scottish politics. What do the results in Aberdeen South and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry tell us?

• In other news: where does the public stand on the government’s social media ban for under 16s?

There will also be a special episode of our Opinion Brief Podcast out tomorrow to analyse everything that has happened! You’ll be able to find it here:

Make sure to follow us to catch up on previous episodes, including yesterday’s where we analyse public support for Starmer’s social media ban, increased defence spending and also have our first ever segment on polling methodology! 

Makerfield turns out

Makerfield felt the weight of yesterday’s by-election as an estimated 16,000 extra people cast their ballot compared to May’s local elections, delivering a 21 point increase in turnout. To put into context how big this election was, it was the second highest parliamentary by-election turnout since 2000, and the first time since 1987 that a constituency’s by-election turnout surpassed the previous general election.

We said in our podcast yesterday that we expected a very high turnout, following our conversations with people over the course of a month in Makerfield. In each of the nine focus groups in the area we conducted, participants described a sense of responsibility, and an awareness that the outcome of their choices would have implications for the future of the country.

"More people knocked on our door and more leaflets have come through our door in the last two, three weeks than in my 40 years of voting in elections." 

Dave, senior engineer, Winstanley.

"For me it's also a privilege - that we've been put in a privileged position to be able to make such a massive decision really."
Helen, semi-retired, Ashton

Burnham delivered Labour’s best performance in Makerfield since 2017, improving on their vote share at the last two general elections by 10 points and over tripling the number of votes cast for Labour in May’s locals.

It’s almost hard to believe that those local elections were under six weeks ago. After Reform won 51 per cent in Makerfield wards, Labour surged into a 20-point lead - a remarkable turn around.

At the core of Burnham’s victory is his local appeal. In focus groups, many praised his record as mayor of Greater Manchester, his charisma and a sense that he has championed the North.

"He understands the blocks that there are in Westminster and I feel like he's the one that can really represent the north and make changes nationally."
Claire

"I've met Andy multiple times. He attends loads of these events and he's very supportive. I think he's done amazing for Manchester."
Nadia

"He's more charismatic. I think he's also probably got... between the two of them the most experience. I think he's more down to earth and he's got more idea of what is going on at the local level."
Laura

Though, as Andy Burnham himself alluded to in his speech early this morning, we heard some concerns about Makerfield being used as a “stepping stone”. As he acknowledged, the key challenge now is passing that ‘Makerfield test’ and proving that he will champion places like this that often feel neglected by Westminster.

In my piece in the Spectator today, I discuss how politically salient this promise is: “Politicians have spent the post-Brexit decade promising a better offer for places that feel neglected by Westminster and cut out of our national story, but have failed to follow through. From our nine focus groups in the run-up to this by-election, it was clear three things convinced voters that, in Burnham’s case, the promise might this time be real.”

"Let Andy go off and do whatever he wants down in London, become prime minister, because his hands are going to be tied. He's going to have his time totally taken up in London. He won't have time to devote to Makerfield.”
Cameron

"I don't like Labour but I don't want Reform either. If there's no alternative but Labour and Reform then yeah, I would vote for Labour."
Alice

"I'm not a Labour fan at all, but I am a fan of Andy Burnham... I think I'll be voting slightly holding my nose, but voting for the person rather than the party."
Helen

Our focus groups in Makerfield have had some great coverage over the past few weeks - you can watch them yourself here:

What does it mean for Reform (and Restore)?

Nigel Farage will likely be disappointed by the result, in a seat that was by any metric a key target, they barely shifted their vote share from 2024. This is likely compounded by the fact that they fell short of their own self professed goal - to win their highest ever by-election vote share. Kenyon’s 34.5 per cent of the vote fell 4 points short of Sarah Pochin’s record by-election performance for Reform in Runcorn and Helsby last year.

Reform candidate Rob Kenyon’s past comments also dominated the race: some residents we spoke to dismissed them as “banter”, others were repelled by them, there was also a third, arguably decisive group who may have forgiven them as the silly mistake of a younger man, but could not understand or forgive the lack of an apology. In this way, Reform’s decision to adopt a Trumpian mantra of ‘never apologise’ may have backfired and is another reminder that approaches that resonate in the US don’t translate to British public sentiment.

"I'm not really happy with the apology side of things... it's quite concerning that he's made those comments and not quite seemed strong enough in his sort of apology for them."
Claire

"He's a grown man. These are serious things he said."
Val

Similarly, we know that while many Makerfield residents shared Farage's anger at the murder of Henry Nowak and the police's response, they balked at him seeming to disrespect Henry’s family’s call for his death not to be used to divide the country and his seeming unwillingness to play a role in reining in those that were committing acts of violence.

Zooming out, Reform’s dominance at the local elections did not come from a significant growth in their overall support, but from a total collapse of Labour’s vote. At yesterday’s by-election the left bloc bounced back, over doubling in total votes from May and converging on Andy Burnham. While the right bloc did grow in terms of raw votes, gained votes were limited and mostly went to Restore not Reform. Of the estimated 16,000 extra votes, only around 1,000 went to Reform while Labour’s total votes over tripled.

While the result was dramatic, it's striking that the relative vote shares of  the left and right party voting blocs remained largely unchanged from 2024, with bigger change within blocs. 

While Restore Britain didn’t achieve the results some of the more excitable briefings suggested, they did keep their deposit. There had been a suggestion that they could have been the ‘spanner in the works’ (to quote a participant in one of our focus groups), splitting the right vote and allowing Burnham to take the seat. However, even if Restore had not run, or Rupert Lowe supporters had tactically voted Reform, Burnham’s lead would still be around 14 points.

Nevertheless, it's evidence that Restore has the ability to break through, at least into single digits, beyond social media and Greater Yarmouth. If they can recreate this result in seats across the country, it suggests they could further fracture the insurgent right vote.

The SNP, the Tories and oil and gas

250 miles away the result in Aberdeen South saw the largest growth of the Conservative vote in a by-election in recent history. Our focus group found that oil and gas and the Murrell scandal motivated voters to back the Conservatives. However, in the same week that Kemi Badenoch’s approval reached its highest level to date, her three visits to the seat had also had an impact:

“I am swinging towards Conservative again just because of the oil and gas situation. That’s my main issue, I think.”

Simon, welding inspector, Aberdeen South

For Labour, their electoral successes in Makerfield were not replicated in Scotland. As in Aberdeen South, results in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry saw Labour fall from a not-too-far-off second in 2024 to a distant fourth in 2026.

But unlike Aberdeen South, where the unionist vote coalesced around the Conservatives, in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, the unionist vote fragmented to hand the SNP a comfortable victory. Scots’ fatigue with politics was evident in this race with turnout at just 31.4 per cent, down from 57.9 per cent in 2024.

In other news…

As the dust of Makerfield settles, the government may hope they can claw some attention back to what is a bold but currently popular policy: their social media ban for under 16s. When we tested support for the policy back in March, the concept of the ban was highly popular with over 7 in 10 in support and just 14 per cent opposing. Of that 71 per cent in favour, 39 per cent “strongly” supported and 32 per cent said they would be “somewhat” in support.

We also know that parents identify social media use and excessive screen time as the single greatest negative impact on their child’s mental health, above exposure to harmful content online, bullying and substance use. In focus groups, parents told us that it was almost impossible for them to regulate their kid's social media use alone, because every other child used it. As a collective action problem, they needed Government support. 

But this is not just a moral panic from older generations. Real concern about the impact of social media on children holds across generations with Gen Zers also highly attuned to online harm. Half of Gen Z Britons wish they had spent less time looking at screens or on their phones during their childhood and over a third (35 per cent) wish they had waited until they were older before getting social media.

The key insight here is that the younger a Gen Zer was when they began to use social media, the more likely they are to indicate a negative experience, but as the threshold of 16 years old is crossed, there is a notable improvement. Of those who were aged 12 or under when they first created a social media account, 44 per cent wish they had waited, falling to 31 per cent among those who were 13-15 years old and then halving as soon as the threshold of 16 and over is crossed (16 per cent).

Thanks for reading! There will no doubt be plenty more to read in the coming weeks as Burnham makes his return to Westminster.

We always love to hear from you. If you have any thoughts for the podcast please drop us an email at hello@moreincommon.com.

All the best,

Luke