After another eventful week, here’s a fresh roundup of our latest insights into public opinion across a range of key issues. In this week’s newsletter:
Britons and u-turns. Ahead of next week’s spending review, we looked at how the public feel about the decision to expand Winter Fuel Allowance eligibility, and what other areas they’d like to see u-turns on.
What motivates Liberal Democrat voters? Despite having 72 MPs there has been relatively little analysis of what motivates Liberal Democrat voters.Our latest report, Green Foundations, explores the environmental attitudes of Liberal Democrat voters and finds that taking bold pro-environmental positioning could help the party retain the Blue Wall at the next election.
The view from the focus groups: what happened in Hamilton? Two weeks before the by-election, we hosted a focus group in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse. Find out how public dissatisfaction and disillusionment is shaping Scottish politics.
In other news: Britons’ fears about national security, the D-Day debacle one year on, and how your plans for the summer can predict which party you’re likely to vote for.
What do Britons really think of u-turns?
The phrase ‘u-turn’ is often seen as a political taboo in politics. But outside of Westminster, how do voters feel about policy reversals? Do u-turns really come with an electoral price?
With the government signalling an expansion of the Winter Fuel Allowance, we asked Britons what they think. Nearly two-thirds (64 per cent) believe it would be the right decision. And amid speculation about where the new income cutoff might be set, a majority of Britons said it should be higher than £50,000 - with nearly a third (31 per cent) saying the benefit should be universal.
But the Winter Fuel Allowance isn’t the only policy where there is public appetite for a u-turn. Our polling found support for reversing other Labour policies: majorities back reversing the early release of prisoners and scrapping inheritance tax on farms. Pluralities support reversals on PIP cuts and the rise in employers’ National Insurance contributions.
On the other hand, on some of Labour’s flagship policies - such as GB Energy, the minimum wage increase and increased public sector pay - Britons want the government to stick to their plan.
This poses an obvious challenge for the government: most of the policies where Britons want to see a reversal are areas where the government is trying to save or raise money. The exception, however, is VAT on private schools. More than half of Britons (52 per cent) think the government should stick to this policy, while only 29 per cent want a u-turn. It’s a rare example of a popular revenue raiser.
But do different voters agree on u-turns? We found that the least political polarising policy is changes to PIP eligibility; most voter groups agree that a reversal of this policy would be a good thing (while Conservatives and Reform are divided).
Perhaps the most divided is the Rwanda plan: the public is split down party lines: 40 per cent of Britons (including a majority of Labour, Liberal Democrat and Green voters) support sticking to Labour’s policy of scrapping the plan, while the exact same proportion (including most Reform and Conservative voters) think that the Government should reverse their policy and bring back the Rwanda scheme.
The polling highlights the balancing act the Government faces in responding to the local election results and rise of Reform - to show they’re listening and responding to feedback on unpopular policies, while dealing with the stark economic reality the money has to come from somewhere.
Green Foundations: Liberal Democrats and the environment
This week we published Green Foundations: Liberal Democrats and the Environment, our new report exploring the role climate and nature campaigning could play in the Liberal Democrats’ efforts to retain and grow their support.
We found that Liberal Democrat voters are significantly more concerned about environmental issues than the British public as a whole - they're nearly twice as likely as the general public to select climate change and the environment as one of the top three issues facing Britain. And this priority is a key reason why many Liberal Democrats voted for the party at the last election.
Our conversations with Liberal Democrat voters showed that they tend to see tackling the environment as a moral issue. The conversations revealed an emotional attachment to nature - particularly at the local level.
I think the environment needs protecting at all costs, particularly in our area because we’ve had such a sewage problem. Claire, Bookkeeper, North Cornwall
I love all the green. I like the fact that you literally step out your front door and there's woods and there's lots of little areas you can wander with the dogs and the kids. Holly, Business Manager, Wokingham
There’s a clear opportunity here for the Liberal Democrats, but it seems that they’re not seizing it. While public perceptions of the Conservative and Labour Governments’ records on the environment are poor, awareness of the Liberal Democrat environmental offer is particularly low, even lower than awareness of their policies in other areas, including among their own voters.
Their own voters put the Liberal Democrats only slightly ahead of the Green Party on environmental issues and they trail far behind among the general public more broadly.
The report finds that the potential electoral benefits for the party from developing a distinctively pro-environment position could be significant with a policy conjoint experiment showing that the party’s environmental policies could be a much more effective way at retaining and growing their support than the anti-President Trump campaigning the party has deployed more prominently in recent months.
You can read the full report below, or have a look at Chris’ thread on the research here.
The view from the focus groups: what happened in Hamilton?
Last night, Labour won the Hamilton by-election in a close three-way contest with the SNP and Labour. Just before the by-election we spoke to voters in the Scotland to find out what was shaping their mood.
“I know we have got problems up here, but I don't think we have got as much problems as what they have down south. I think there’s far bigger problems down there than what we have up here.” Andrew, painter decorator, Larkhall
"Personally I wouldn't mind paying a higher rate of tax if we had good public services, but we don't get our bins lifted. Public transport's shocking. The streets are full of potholes and it’s just nae working."
Ernestine, administrator, Hamilton
"I think they've got off that terrible start. Everything they promised, they've never followed through. They said they wouldn't put our taxes up, they've done that. They says we would keep the economy stable. That's not happened. And it's the same as what it was during COVID. The cost hasn't went down. They said they were going to cut waiting times to the NHS. They've actually just got bigger and bigger since they were in, I don't think that they've followed through any of the promises at all." Karen, nurse, Larkhall
“I certainly don't want the Tories back, but I don't think there's much difference between them. I can't really see how Labour are a party of the people that they claim to be. I don't really think they've got a true identity and I think they're quite weak when it comes to what they used to stand for and what people think of labour and what they're there to achieve.” Liam, accountant, Stonehouse
If you’re interested in what drove last night’s result, this article in the Guardian (which includes a writeup of our focus group) offers some great analysis:
Is Britain ready for war? Most Britons don’t think so. Following the release of the Strategic Defence Review, we published polling on Britons attitudes towards Britain’s security. Only 19 per cent of Britons believe the UK is ready to defend itself in a war at home, and even fewer (14 per cent) think we’re prepared to fight a war overseas. The public see Russia s the UK’s greatest threat. The public want more investment to tackle the new technological threats of drones and cyberwarfare; some even want to see a return of national service. You can read my thread about the research here.
One year on, how do Britons remember the D-Day scandal? Our polling last year showed that Rishi Sunak leaving D-Day commemorations early was the blunder that had the highest level of cut-through. A year later, it is still raised in focus groups as a symbol of where the Conservatives went wrong. You can see here how it compared to other gaffes/scandals on the campaign, and why it mattered so much to the public.
How your plans for the summer can predict which party you’re likely to vote for. To mark the beginning of summer, we asked the public what they’re looking forward to. We spotted that Britons’ plans for the summer can offer surprising clues about their political leaning. Conservatives lead among those excited for the Tour de France, while Labour comes out on top with Glastonbury goers. But it’s Reform UK that really stands out: they lead with a landslide among staycationers, Grand Prix fans and pub garden enthusiasts, showing that the party is becoming increasingly mainstream. You can find a great writeup of the research in the Mail on Sunday here.
As always, we’d love to hear your thoughts! Please feel free to reply to this email, or forward it to a friend who might be interested.
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