It’s been a busy week at More in Common - gearing up for the elections, launching our brand new podcast and, if that wasn’t enough, we’ve just released our latest quarterly Westminster MRP!
In this newsletter:
Do Britons still have trust in science? Our latest report with the Wellcome Trust looks in depth at how Britons feel toward science and scientists. In an era of low trust in other institutions, we ask whether there is a risk of science becoming polarised - and explain the impact that COVID had on public trust.
What would an election held tomorrow look like? Our latest MRP suggests that Reform UK is still firmly in the lead, but with a potential plateau emerging.
Does Britain feel ready for war? Our latest polling looks at how Britons feel about our military readiness in what feels like an increasingly unstable world.
Changing voter bases and a social media ban: a summary of the themes we covered in our first episode of the Opinion Brief Podcast this week.
But first, an invitation…
Next Monday, we’re hosting our first webinar ahead of the elections in Scotland, England and Wales.
We'll be setting the scene for the elections, looking at the factors driving the vote, and the implications for each of the parties across areas going to the polls on May 7th.
We'll unveil brand new research during the webinar, including:
In-depth analysis of our new MRP models in Scotland and Wales
A closer look at the scene in Birmingham and London
State of play on England elections, including guidance on how to interpret the results and what a good or bad night would look like for each party
Insights from focus groups conducted across the UK
Register for the webinar below. Hope to see you there!
Released today, Britons Talk Trust in Science is an in-depth study into how Britons feel toward science and scientists. It includes a detailed breakdown of how the Seven Segments feel about science.
At a time when the word most Britons use to describe Britain is “broken” - and trust in institutions is at a historic low - science still stands out as a source of real optimism for the public. When asked what makes them hopeful about the future, the most popular answers are all anchored in science: medical advances, technology and scientific innovation. Unlike in some other countries, these beliefs have not become polarised, and do not split neatly across party lines.
Yet there are real warning signs. Around three in ten Britons think science has become too closely associated with political causes - a view most widespread among Traditional Conservatives and Dissenting Disruptors, for whom the COVID pandemic eroded their trust in the scientific establishment. That concern may not be entirely misplaced: in a separate poll, almost two-thirds of scientists belong to the two most left-leaning segments - Progressive Activists and Incrementalist Left - compared to a third of the wider public. Nearly four in ten Britons also feel there is simply too much information to know what is true about science, a feeling most acute among the least trusting groups. The findings suggest that earning back trust in science is closely tied to rebuilding faith in the public institutions that many feel have already failed them.
We’ll be doing a deep dive into the research next week on the Opinion Brief podcast, and will include more detail in our newsletter next week - so stay tuned!
This week, we revealed our brand new MRP - a polling technique that uses a large sample (in this case over 15,000 people) to estimate results at constituency level. Rather than just telling us national vote share, it projects the electoral map if an election were held today.
Our previous models have suggested that Reform UK could win a majority, and that both main parties could be reduced to double digits.
What we saw in our latest model this week was a slight change in that trend. Reform UK are projected to win 324 seats, just one or two short of a majority, but this represents a slight dip for Reform: down 57 seats since our January MRP, with some more seats remaining with the Conservatives in the shires and with Labour in the urban north. Their position remains precarious, with most wins coming in three- or four-way marginals on vote shares well below 40 per cent. A small further drop in Reform’s vote share could cause an outsized blow to their parliamentary strength.
On the surface, this looks like it might be quite good news for the traditional mainstream?
But there are two reasons why it’s far too early to point to green shoots for the Government. The first is that, while Reform’s ascent may have stalled, their coalition remains remarkably broad: not just coastal Essex and the Red Wall, but university towns, the Scottish Highlands, and parts of East London. Secondly, Labour, meanwhile, seem to be struggling to even hold onto seats that would have once been their strongholds.
The model suggests that Labour are losing votes on two fronts. Alongside losses to Reform, they are under threat from the Greens - who are projected to quadruple their presence from 5 to 22 seats, with gains in Bristol, Manchester, Sheffield and parts of London.
We’ve heard in focus groups with disillusioned progressives in urban areas where Labour has historically dominated about how the cost of living, and strained public services, are pushing them away from the Labour Party. Often in these groups it feels like more disappointment than anger; many people we talk to had genuinely high hopes from this government, but feel that the pace and scale of change hasn’t met their hopes. You can read the great writeups of our groups in Birmingham Yardley in the Guardian, and Keir Starmer’s seat Holborn and St Pancras in the Times.
“I don’t see anything around me that makes my life actually better.”
Terry, Birmingham Yardley
“Trying to get an appointment at the doctor or any of these services that you’re paying taxes for, it’s slower and more draining … you don’t really know where the money is being spent and you don’t really have any money either,” Asma, Birmingham Yardley
“And then in terms of not having much disposable income, so anything like in the past we might have thought, "Oh yeah, we'll take the kids and go to the theatre." Now it's like, hang on a minute. So now I sign up for ticket alerts and things like that. We can get discounted tickets. But even then, it's like when you think about what those things cost and what you have to do to earn that, you think that's like two days wages on an hourly rate.” Emma, Holborn and St Pancras
The Greens have been able to capitalise on that disillusionment and their gains in urban heartlands could even see them unseating very senior Labour figures in London. Perhaps most concerningly, as well as taking two London seats, this model suggests that the Greens are in second place in many more, many of them marginal.
Overall, Labour’s position may have improved in terms of numbers, but their standing looks increasingly similar to the ‘pincer movement’ that affected the Conservatives in 2024: haemorrhaging seats to Reform in one direction, while Polanski's Greens besiege their urban strongholds in the other.
You can read the full writeup, and what it means for each party, here:
Following Lord Robertson’s warning about the UK’s lack of military readiness, have these concerns cut through with the public?
Confidence in the UK's ability to defend itself is low across almost every potential threat we tested - on most, fewer than one in three Britons feel confident. The country's weakest perceived capability is protecting citizens abroad, and while Britons are slightly more confident about our ability to respond to a ground invasion or a terrorist attack, in general people feel deeply insecure about the threats to Britain. Interestingly, Labour voters are outliers in their relative confidence; as the only voter group where more than half feel confidence about our ability to defend ourselves against a range of threats. Reform voters are the least confident of all.
In part this insecurity is bound up in our relationship with our traditional ally America and whether they would still come to our aid. Faith in the US as a military partner has collapsed: as we said last week, just 40 per cent think it likely the US would assist a NATO ally if attacked. The feeling that we can no longer rely on our transatlantic allies has deepened Britons’ desire for greater independence on security.
This week, our latest polling suggests that this insecurity is reshaping how Britons think about the transatlantic relationship more broadly: only 24 per cent think the UK should align closely with the US on international affairs, against 36 per cent who think it should not.
Yet even in this context, Britons lean toward pragmatism on diplomatic ties. A plurality - 45 per cent - think the King's state visit should go ahead, compared to 40 per cent who want it postponed or cancelled. Reform voters are the most in favour, Green voters the most opposed, while Conservative and Labour voters both lean toward letting it proceed.
Changing voter bases and a social media ban
In our first episode of the Opinion Brief Podcast, we looked at how the voter bases of the two insurgent parties are shifting, and did a deep dive into our research on a potential social media ban.
You can listen to the full episode here, and see a wrap-up of the graphs used in the podcast here.
Who are the new voters flocking to Reform and the Greens, and what do they have in common?
Our research shows the average Reform voter now looks increasingly like the average British voter, with the gender gap nearly closed and most supporters having only come to the party since 2024. Meanwhile, new Green voters are younger, more female, and more financially insecure than the party's 2024 base: more worried about housing and cost of living than climate. Despite their differences, both groups share a sense that the social contract is broken and an appetite for radical change.
And on social media:
It's rare to find an issue with this level of public consensus. 70 per cent of Britons want the minimum age for social media raised to 16, while 71 per cent want a full smartphone ban in schools. While parents tend to be the most concerned about the impact on their children, young people themselves - who have grown up online - are also highly worried. 55 per cent of 16-24 year olds say they'd be happier in a world without social media, and 50 per cent regret how much time they spent on screens growing up.
Yet we also discussed the potential public opinion pitfalls with banning social media: widespread concerns about free speech and online privacy, the risk that the wrong message (or messenger) could undermine support, and the ongoing question of whether it’s even possible to “put the genie back in the bottle” when it comes to social media.
That’s all for this week - thank you for reading! And as always, let us know what you think.
All the best,
Luke
More in Common, Hermannstraße 90, c/o Publix, Berlin, Berlin 12051, Germany
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