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Dear friend,

Happy Friday - hope this finds you well and not too bleary-eyed if like me you stayed up until the early hours to receive the results from Gorton and Denton.

In this newsletter:

• What happened in Gorton and Denton? We look at what drove yesterday's seismic by-election, and what it means for each of the main parties and the future of British politics.

• What does the future of Plaid Cymru look like? We're in Newport today presenting our research to Plaid Cymru Spring Conference - find out what's happening to the party's support base ahead of the 2026 Senedd Election.

What happened in Gorton and Denton? And what’s next?

A by-election where the word seismic is actually appropriate.

Gorton and Denton should be one of Labour’s safest seats (they took more than 50 per cent of the vote there in 2024), and in many ways the constituency is a microcosm of Labour’s national coalition. Denton is part of Tameside and its population leans older, whiter and more working class - voters here look a lot like Labour’s old Red Wall base. Gorton on the other hand is part of Manchester City, its population contains a sizable chunk of students and graduates and a large Muslim population centred around Longsight and Levenshulme - Labour’s newer base. Both sides of that coalition splintered yesterday. 

Just eighteen months ago when Labour won the General Election, you would not have expected Gorton and Denton to be competitive. At the time, Labour held it as their 38th safest seat in the country. 

But in a sign of how ‘roll the dice’ sentiment has come to dominate our politics, insurgent parties came first and second last night - winning nearly seven in ten votes between them, while the two traditional main parties were left with just 27 per cent of the vote.

What caused this dramatic shift? In our conversations in the constituency, we heard a range of concerns: impatience at the slow pace of change, the Mandelson scandal and frustration with a rigged system, concerns about public services, immigration, a sense of inadequate response to the rise of racism, and the handling of the Israel-Gaza conflict to name but a few.

In short, a series of frustrations with the status quo drove voters to abandon the traditional mainstream and towards parties offering radically different solutions to the problems the country faces, furthering the trend towards deep fragmentation.

What this means for the Greens

Last night’s result represents the Green Party’s first ever by-election win, and an increase in their vote share that completely dwarfs their gains in every other contest they’ve fought.

We know from our research that voters are looking for politicians who can ‘de-rig’ the system. For the past two years, Reform has seemed to dominate this space, but this result suggests that the Green vision of systemic change is now resonating with a significant bloc of left-leaning voters too - many in our ‘Progressive Activist’ segment but also beyond.

In our focus groups during the campaign, we heard from a wide range of voters who were considering the Greens. Some spoke really fondly of Hannah Spencer; many were drawn by a desire to stop Reform. Others simply by the appeal of something different to challenge the main parties.

"I quite like Hannah, the young lady who works for the Green Party. I'll be voting for her"

Sabina

"Something's got to change from the two horse race back and forth… is that going to be the Greens that are coming up? I don't know whether they're there yet"

Matthew

As we describe in our latest briefing on the Green Party, the Greens seem to have a lot of room to grow, with around a quarter of British voters saying they would at least consider supporting the party - but if the party is to grow beyond Progressive Activists it may have to do more to provide reassurance on areas like the economy and its migration policies.

What this means for Labour

Labour’s base is fragmenting across the board, and Gorton and Denton exemplifies the ‘pincer movement’ facing Labour, with a threat coming from both left and right - much like the Conservatives faced under Rishi Sunak 2024.

In our focus groups, we heard about some of the drivers of Labour’s collapse in Gorton and Denton: voters across left and right spoke in strikingly similar language about feeling that the government has so far failed to deliver change. Many, particularly Muslim voters, felt that Labour had taken the seat for granted and that not enough had been done to tackle the rise of racism in Britain. It’s also clear that the decision to block Andy Burnham from running hung over this contest and was taken by some as a sign that their local champion wasn’t welcome in Westminster.

“I think everything, NHS, police, the fire service, every public service is suffering. And poverty, housing, it all feeds into it.”
Katie

"It feels like times are changing. My parents or grandparents would always be Labour. But now what would have been seen as smaller parties are coming into effect now, getting more recognition here."

Hamza

"I think it's shocking… I don't know whether Keir Starmer feels a bit threatened by (Burnham)"
Joe

“The country can't cope with the amount of people that are coming in. (...) You can't get a doctor's appointment, you wait 12 hours stuck in A and E.”
Archie

Perhaps one of the biggest consequences for Labour is what this result will mean for tactical voting. Following Caerphilly, this is now the second time that progressives worried about Reform have opted for a non-incumbent progressive alternative instead of rallying behind Labour. 

In our focus groups at the beginning of the campaign, we heard from left-leaning voters who were genuinely afraid of Reform winning, but totally uncertain about who the safe bet was. The result makes it harder for Labour to frame itself as the safe tactical option to keep Reform out at the next General Election - and undermines any potential “Macron strategy” - the idea of persuading progressive voters to hold their nose and back an unpopular incumbent to stop the rise of the populist right. 

"I think it's a two horse race, this by-election is between Reform and Green."

Sabina

“An ad or a meme came up for me on Facebook, saying a vote for the Green party is a vote for Reform.”
Jane

"If you split the vote between Labour and the Green party, Reform could then get in. And that's why I'm toying"
Jo

What This Means for Reform

There’s a warning here for Reform too. 

While Reform didn’t perform badly - doubling their support in the seat since 2024 - this result shows that polling at around 30 per cent nationally isn’t alone enough to translate into election victories, especially when tactical voting kicks in. 

In this case, the choice of a candidate who was particularly polarising and had made what many saw as incendiary comments may have motivated progressive turnout, potentially scaring off more wavering Reform-leaning voters.

The party now faces a dual challenge. The first is becoming less actively disliked. In focus groups, we heard from progressives who said they were ‘terrified’ about the prospect of Reform UK winning the by-election. This fear will lead people to vote tactically, even for parties that they might not feel enthusiastic about. Secondly, the result reveals that Reform can’t rely on their most engaged base, but will need to reassure the ‘softer’ Reform voters and considerers. Our data shows that Farage’s connection to Donald Trump, perceptions of inexperience and racism within Reform’s ranks are the top barriers to voting Reform. 

What this means for British politics

Across our focus groups in Gorton and Denton, it isn’t certain that voters are ideologically wedded to the Greens or Reform, or even convinced they’d do a better job than Labour. Many simply feel they have to try something new. Many Green and Reform voters share a desire to shake up the status quo, and to radically overhaul our institutions.

“I don't know much about them, but I would consider the Green Party. It's just different to Labour or Conservative. They have not done much for the country at all (...) I would definitely also consider Reform.”
Archie 

If voters’ risk tolerance is growing in the face of an unhappy status quo, warning them about the dangers of untested parties like Reform and the Greens won’t be enough to save mainstream parties. 

But it’s also the case that across the political spectrum some of the tactics and campaign approaches used by parties only served to confuse and frustrate local voters.

I discussed this on last night’s Newsnight, which you can watch below:

LINK

You can also find Rachel Cunliffe’s excellent writeup of our focus group with Muslim voters in Gorton and Denton here.

And what has it been like living in Gorton and Denton during this seismic by-election? Our op-ed in the Telegraph shares our insights of what it’s been like for residents on the ground. You can read it here.

What does the future look like for Plaid Cymru?

Fuelled by defections from Labour and a widespread desire for change, it looks likely that Plaid Cymru will lead the next government of Wales. Today, we’re in Newport for the Plaid Cymru Spring Party Conference, sharing our latest research on the state of public opinion in Wales.

One fascinating thing we’ve seen from our polling is how dramatically Plaid Cymru’s voter base is changing. In the 2021 Senedd election, their voters spanned across our seven segments - in fact Dissenting Disruptors formed an important part of their coalition. In recent years, disillusioned left-leaning defectors from Labour have formed a growing part of their support base: in 2021, Progressive Activists and Incrementalist Left formed just over a third of Plaid’s support basel; now, they form more than half. Meanwhile, many of the party’s Dissenting Disruptor supporters have switched to Reform UK.

We’ll be sharing these findings at Plaid Cymru conference this afternoon. If you’re interested in finding out what this means for the party ahead of the Senedd election in May, you can find the full report here.

That’s all for this week - thanks so much for reading. And as always, do let us know what you think!

Best wishes,

Luke