Dear friend,

Happy election day!

It's been a busy few weeks here at More in Common. We've been travelling around the country, speaking with people and to understand their concerns and priorities ahead of the first big set of elections of this Parliament.

In this newsletter, we’re sharing some of what we’ve learned, along with a guide to help make sense of the results.

So, if you're gearing up for an all-nighter like we are, here’s what to expect over the next 24 hours - and a few key things to watch out for.

What to expect

These elections are not taking place across the country. They are largely concentrated in county councils excluding many major urban areas. As a result, they lean more Conservative than the country as a whole and are not nationally representative. 

Our polling of those intending to vote in this year’s local elections suggests Reform UK are likely to do very well, with the Conservatives slipping back from their high water mark from the last time these seats were contested - when Boris Johnson was Prime Minister and enjoying a post-vaccine bounce. 

The net result is that Reform UK are likely to make significant gains, the Conservatives significant losses, Labour to somewhat tread water and the Liberal Democrats to advance in southern counties.

But the most striking feature of this election is the level of fragmentation we can expect to see, with third parties rising and winning across the country as voters abandon the traditional main parties in the hunt for who can best deliver “change”.

Our polling across the four metro mayoralties finds that three of the four are too close to call, and the new mayors could end up being elected on very small shares of the vote.

For many councils, this fragmentation means we could expect NOC (No Overall Control) to be the biggest winner, with the most likely outcome in every council up for election being that no party will command a majority on each council. While some parties may gain outright control in a few areas, most councils will require coalitions to be formed across parties. This raises questions about potential local cooperation between Reform and Conservative councillors, or whether independent and localist members will hold the balance of power.

Something to follow over the next few weeks will be the range of coalitions and alliances that form in this unprecedentedly fragmented landscape.

You can find our full briefing on the elections here:

Where to watch (and when)

While most results won’t be announced until tomorrow afternoon, there will be a few key areas to look out for during the night, that will give us a sense of the degree of that fragmentation. 

2:00AM - The West of England
One of the first results to be announced, due around 2AM, will be the West of England Combined Authority (WECA). WECA is bound to be an interesting race: our mayoral polling has Labour candidate Helen Godwin holding a paper-thin lead, but four parties are within the margin of error.

Even the Liberal Democrats -  in fifth place - are narrowly within the boundaries of contention, meaning a Lib Dem win remains within the realm of possibility.

The West of England will likely be one of the first indications how the electorate is fragmenting both left and right. 

3:00AM - Runcorn and Hellsby

This much-anticipated by-election is expected to announce it’s results sometime around 3Am.

This race is a straight Labour/Reform UK contest. 

For Reform UK, this could be a chance to gain a fifth MP and to show they can make gains from Labour as well as the Conservatives - but also whether or not they can convert enthusiasm into votes. If Labour manage to win the seat, it will suggest more voters willing to give them the benefit of the doubt than polling suggests, and a better turnout operation.

Our MRP released earlier this month shows Reform taking Runcorn and Hellsby, albeit by a relatively narrow margin.

“Immigration and freedom of speech are two of the big things at the moment. So obviously round our way, Labour are probably the most popular party where Reform seemed to be rivaling and surpassing the Tories in quite a lot of areas. So I think they're probably getting supported more now than they ever have even around our way”
Jason, sales manager, Helsby

5:00AM - Doncaster

If you manage to stay awake until 5AM (or get up ridiculously early), you’ll likely be greeted with the results from the Doncaster mayoral race.

Reform should hope to do very well in Doncaster, an area that reflects what has become known as ‘The Red Wall’ that has defined the politics of the past decade. UKIP regularly performed at 30 per cent locally during their peak, while Doncaster was an area of strength for the Brexit Party in the 2019 General Election. Though Reform stood aside in Doncaster North last year, MRP models suggest they would take all three Doncaster seats at the next General Election. If Reform fails to do well here, it could indicate they have made less progress than expected.

“I think the people who are in power are absolutely out of touch with the normal people of the country.”

Kim, retired teacher, Doncaster

All about turnout

But more than anything - these elections won’t just be decided by how people vote, but whether they show up to vote at all.

In a low-turnout scenario - where only the most enthusiastic voters turnout - we can expect Reform UK to do considerably better. This is because Reform voters are among the most likely to say they will vote at this election.

Take Greater Lincolnshire, for example: their candidate Andrea Jenkyns polls at 40 per cent among those who say they’re certain to vote, but that drops to 33 per cent when you include people who are only fairly likely to vote.

Turnout will be crucial to any party trying to gain ground this evening. The key test for Reform will be whether they can reach traditional non-voters. In our polling, Reform supporters are the least likely to say they usually vote in locals, but the most likely to say they'll definitely vote in these ones.

There is a question here as to whether enthusiasm trumps habit, and Reform is able to convert its momentum and public disillusionment with the status quo into votes.

The view from the focus groups - a rather gloomy road trip

We've spent the last couple of weeks travelling around the country, and conducting focus groups in all four mayoralties.

What we found was an electorate that is angry, exhausted and pessimistic. While voters will be electing local candidates, it's clear that national and international politics will be front of mind. On a national level, people cite the cost of living, small boats, and NHS waiting times as symptoms of a 'Broken Britain'. 

Closer to home, they point to homelessness in their town, boarded up shops on the high streets, and potholes in the road.

In the days after the election it will be tempting to attribute the results to one cause or another, but in reality it reflects a deeper disillusionment - a sense that Britain isn’t working and that it’s hard to see how it can be fixed. 

I think the world is effed up, and I feel sorry for the kids growing up in it.”
Chelsea, social worker, Hull

“I think really overall we are in a very poor state compared to what we used to be.”

Suzie, customer service, Cambridgeshire

With trust in politicians seemingly at an all-time-low - and many feeling that there is no real difference between the two parties - many seem ready to give up on the system altogether.

“I've actually given up on the system, if I'm being totally open and honest with you. Yeah, nothing really changes ever (...) It's almost, this is going to sound really extreme, but the country almost needs a coup-d’etat and it needs somebody to almost come in and say, ‘right, this is what we're doing and you will conform’ (...) There's no proper leadership by anybody. Nobody likes any of the candidates. Nobody really trusts any of them. It's almost like we need the king to just say, right, ‘I'm in charge and this is what we're doing’.”

Gary, sales manager, Bourne

But while Reform UK seems to be the main beneficiaries of this disillusionment, lots of those we spoke to weren’t too sure about Nigel Farage and his party. While many align with Farage on immigration, concerns came up in almost every focus group about his connection and likeness to President Trump. For some, it was not a sense of enthusiasm that drew them to Reform, but a sense that they can’t ‘make more of a hash of it’ than the main two parties, and that they may as well role the dice. 

“He can't make more of a hash of it than is being made at this moment in time. He can’t make more of a hash of it than the other parties.”

Jayne, retired HR director, Cambridgeshire

“I like his personality. I agree with some of the things that he says and that he promises that he would do, but whether or not I would trust him is another issue.”

Bernadette, customer service, Scunthorpe

All in all, it was a depressing indictment of national politics. And yet there was also a lot of positivity in these conversations. People tend to speak far more positively about their local areas than they do about the country as a whole. Despite the challenges people see in their streets, they still feel a strong sense of pride in their communities.

“I've lived here all my life and I still value that it's community-based.”

Ian, entertainer, Scunthorpe

“The funny thing is I still love Peterborough, no matter what. We bash it all we want. I've lived in London, I've worked, I've moved around, but I still think, I dunno. Peterborough is where my heart is and I think we've got so much potential. That's the thing. Peterborough has got so much potential”
Nurun, retail owner, Peterborough

Any solution to people’s disillusionment with national politics will surely have to involve building up from the local and what people like about their communities. We also find strong appetite to give more powers to local councils and communities to run the areas they know better than anyone else.

Find out more

Last night, I appeared on BBC Radio 4 to discuss the possible outcomes of tonight’s results. You can watch the full clip here.

You can also find our comprehensive pre-election briefing - as well as our full polling results - at the link below.

Thanks and all the best, 

Luke Tryl
Executive Director
More in Common UK